ATL Ex. INVEST 92L: Model Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Models run here!

[Blown Away]

No graphic Hurakan?

[HURAKAN]

No graphic Hurakan?

Waiting for the models to run.

[HurricaneFreak]

I want to see some models Im curious were this could go or be a fish storm.

[x-y-no]

Not an official forecast, just my opinion based on what I see in the models:

Looking at the global models, there will be plenty of weakness near this system in the mid-range. Big-time ridging does start to build in again starting on day 6 and extending westward in the following days, but by they this will have progressed way too far north to be any threat.

EDIT:

I'll amend this to say that if it fails to get organized until around day 5 or later, this could be a different story since a weak wave won't make as much northward progress into the weakness, and the ridge the GFS builds after that time does look very impressive.

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

The shear forecast for 92L looks bleak for the system.

Code: Select all

     *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  09/13/08  12 UTC   *


SHEAR (KTS)       31    27    30    32    33    30    28    20    19    14    16    15    16


[HurricaneFreak]

These models take it to the north but these are just the first models since this is a new invest so these models could change somewhat maybe to the west.

[HurricaneFreak]

Yea shear looks a little storng now but the chart indicates that shear will be decresing in the next few days as the NHC said in the report for invest 92L.So if this storm can hold on as it is now for a few days it could maybe strengthened but for now its just an invest that we got to watch that is more organized than invest 91L

[HURAKAN]

277
WHXX01 KWBC 131530
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1530 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080913 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080913 1200 080914 0000 080914 1200 080915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 43.3W 17.2N 46.0W 18.5N 48.5W 19.8N 50.6W
BAMD 16.0N 43.3W 16.8N 44.6W 17.6N 45.5W 18.4N 46.2W
BAMM 16.0N 43.3W 16.8N 45.2W 17.6N 46.9W 18.3N 48.4W
LBAR 16.0N 43.3W 17.0N 44.3W 17.9N 45.5W 19.1N 46.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080915 1200 080916 1200 080917 1200 080918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.3N 52.3W 25.3N 53.7W 29.7N 52.9W 33.6N 51.2W
BAMD 19.2N 46.7W 20.1N 47.7W 19.0N 49.3W 17.2N 52.1W
BAMM 19.2N 49.8W 21.6N 51.7W 23.2N 53.0W 23.7N 55.1W
LBAR 20.4N 46.6W 23.1N 45.8W 23.2N 45.7W 20.7N 46.9W
SHIP 32KTS 31KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 32KTS 31KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 42.3W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 41.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Blown Away]

The shear forecast for 92L looks bleak for the system.

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     *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  09/13/08  12 UTC   *


SHEAR (KTS)       31    27    30    32    33    30    28    20    19    14    16    15    16


Then it should stay as a shallow wave and continue WNW towards the NE Islands just like the TAFB is predicting.

[HURAKAN]

545
WHXX01 KWBC 131840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080913 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080913 1800 080914 0600 080914 1800 080915 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 45.0W 17.0N 47.9W 18.3N 50.5W 19.6N 52.9W
BAMD 15.9N 45.0W 16.6N 46.5W 17.5N 47.7W 18.4N 48.9W
BAMM 15.9N 45.0W 16.6N 47.0W 17.4N 48.9W 18.3N 50.6W
LBAR 15.9N 45.0W 16.6N 46.5W 17.6N 48.0W 18.8N 49.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080915 1800 080916 1800 080917 1800 080918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 55.1W 25.4N 57.2W 28.5N 58.1W 30.8N 59.0W
BAMD 19.5N 50.1W 21.2N 52.0W 21.0N 53.7W 19.9N 56.5W
BAMM 19.5N 52.2W 22.1N 54.6W 23.2N 56.5W 23.5N 59.1W
LBAR 20.5N 49.9W 23.4N 49.8W 23.9N 50.4W 21.7N 51.9W
SHIP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 36KTS
DSHP 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 45.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 43.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 42.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

758
WHXX04 KWBC 132328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.3 45.0 290./ 8.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

GFDL not very happy with 92L!

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 151056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1056 UTC MON SEP 15 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080915 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080915 0600 080915 1800 080916 0600 080916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 53.6W 18.7N 56.1W 20.2N 58.1W 21.8N 59.9W
BAMD 17.5N 53.6W 18.7N 55.3W 20.3N 57.1W 22.3N 58.7W
BAMM 17.5N 53.6W 18.4N 55.5W 19.6N 57.4W 21.0N 59.2W
LBAR 17.5N 53.6W 18.6N 55.3W 20.3N 56.5W 22.0N 57.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080917 0600 080918 0600 080919 0600 080920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 61.4W 26.5N 63.9W 29.1N 65.4W 31.8N 66.5W
BAMD 24.2N 60.0W 27.5N 61.9W 29.5N 62.7W 31.3N 63.1W
BAMM 22.3N 60.9W 24.7N 63.4W 25.9N 65.2W 27.1N 67.4W
LBAR 23.5N 57.8W 25.9N 59.2W 27.8N 61.3W 30.4N 62.7W
SHIP 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 53.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 50.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 47.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

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[b]                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  09/15/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    26    27    29    33    36    41    43    45    50    54    56
V (KT) LAND       25    26    26    27    29    33    36    41    43    45    50    54    56
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    25    25    26    26    27    28    29    31    33    37    42

SHEAR (KTS)       21    17    19    25    25    22    17    17    21    20    18    16    17
SHEAR DIR        242   238   219   229   238   240   261   262   290   305   304   299   307
SST (C)         28.5  28.4  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.1  27.8  27.9  28.1  28.3  28.4  28.5  28.5
POT. INT. (KT)   145   142   141   141   141   138   134   134   136   139   140   142   141
ADJ. POT. INT.   140   134   133   132   132   127   120   119   118   119   119   120   119
200 MB T (C)   -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9
TH_E DEV (C)      12    12    12    12    11    11    10    10    10    10     9     9     9
700-500 MB RH     61    59    59    57    56    62    63    57    54    56    56    59    59
GFS VTEX (KT)      5     4     3     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -46   -56   -53   -55   -52   -42   -42   -41   -47   -35   -32    -7   -15
200 MB DIV        12    -3    -7    11    17     9     9    -3    15    -8    16     0    -6
LAND (KM)       1045  1028   931   842   763   672   663   739   805   880   903   939   992
LAT (DEG N)     18.2  18.7  19.2  19.9  20.5  22.0  23.3  24.7  25.6  26.4  27.0  27.7  28.4
LONG(DEG W)     55.0  56.0  56.9  57.9  58.8  60.6  62.2  63.4  64.4  65.3  66.0  66.9  67.7
STM SPEED (KT)    13    10    11    11    11    11     9     8     6     5     5     5     5
HEAT CONTENT      56    48    54    59    47    34    32    29    34    28    24    24    26

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15      CX,CY: -13/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  827  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  26.6 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  21.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   5.  10.  15.  19.  23.  26.  28.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   3.   4.   8.  12.  17.  18.  21.  25.  29.  33.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   1.   2.   4.   8.  11.  16.  18.  20.  25.  29.  31.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 09/15/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  21.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   6.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 109.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  52.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008     INVEST 09/15/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             [/b]

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Looks like shear is abating a bit in vicinity of the wave, and thus near the Leewards Islands...