ATL Ex. INVEST 92L: Discussion

[cycloneye]

Convection still well behind the naked LLC.

[wxman57]

Bones says there will be no named storms for at least a week. We all need a rest.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks to finally be entering a generally favorable environment if shear analysis is right...but maybe too late for this one.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The LLC is clearly present but shear is still very strong.

[HURAKAN]

439
ABNT20 KNHC 142332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IKE...CURRENTLY
RACING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

I know, there's not much out there!!

[terrapintransit]

I know, there's not much out there!!

Love it!!

[HURAKAN]

Moving into an area of lower shear.

[Sanibel]

Think we have a storm. If it bursts like that when it's sheared...

[Weatherfreak000]

Indeed....not too sure I am ready to put this thing away thus yet..

[MHurricanes]

Indeed....not too sure I am ready to put this thing away thus yet..

We should know at this point, not to discount anything. If this spins up, watch out. It's still September.

- MHurricanes

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
46W-52W.
Dead or not Jim, it has lost 2millibars since this morning given the precedent TWD down to 1011hpa previously it was 1013hpa, so we should continue to monitor this thing in case of, anything can happen during the peak, do no let your guard down...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection is popping very nicely this morning hours after hours, looking a bit tasty with this burst, flaring up:eek: !

[Evil Jeremy]

Someone check NRL to see if the invest was reactivated. I can't, it is blocked where I am, but the models are up and running again: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_92.gif

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE
OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[cycloneye]

The thread returns to active storms forum as models are running again.

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK updates again 92L.

AL, 92, 2008091506, , BEST, 0, 175N, 536W, 25, 1011, DB,

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
46W-52W.

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 18.1N 54.2W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
46W-52W.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
46W-52W.
Dead or not Jim, it has lost 2millibars since this morning given the precedent TWD down to 1011hpa previously it was 1013hpa, so we should continue to monitor this thing in case of, anything can happen during the peak, do no let your guard down...

Hurakan previously posted tkanks