BOB TWO-B: Deep Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 90.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED WEST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
CONVERGENT ASYMPTOTE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW HELPING
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the NIO is starting to warm back up. Thats never good.

[HURAKAN]

14/1830 UTC 19.7N 89.4E T1.5/1.5 97B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-09-2008.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA)

VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 26.5 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)

[Chacor]

[salmon123]

NOT MUCH SPACE TO DEVOLUP

[ugaap]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-09-2008.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA)

VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.)

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH WEST AND ADJOINING PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA(.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 24.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 90.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA,
INDIA. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
WEST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH IMPROVING CURVED BANDING FORMING
NEAR THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW HELPING MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[RattleMan]

BOB 04/2008/01 Dated: 15th September 2008



Sub: Depression over north west Bay of Bengal.



A depression has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 15th September 2008

near Lat. 19.50 N and Long. 88.50 E, about 230 kms east-southeast of Paradip. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a

west-northwesterly direction and cross Orissa coast between Paradip and Chandbali by tomorrow, the 16th September 2008

afternoon / evening.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm)

at isolated places is likely over Orissa during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also

likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period. Widespread rainfall with

isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over Chhatisgarh from tomorrow.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast during next 48 hours. Sea

condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.



-------------------------------------










DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 15-09-2008



Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 1500 utc OF 15 SePTEMBER, 2008 based on 1200 UTC of 15 SEPTEMBER 2008.



THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY

CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH SEPTEMBER 2008 OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 19.50 N AND

LONG. 88.50 E, ABOUT 230 KMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25-30 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA CONDITION IS

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.



IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM, BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER

NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO

THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE

DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA.



UNDER THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY

DIRECTION AND CROSS ORISSA COAST BETWEEN PARADIP (42976) AND CHANDBALI (42973) BY TOMORROW, THE 16TH

SEPTEMBER 2008 BETWEEN 0900 AND 1500 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

15/1830 UTC 19.9N 88.0E T1.5/1.5 97B -- Bay of Bengal

[RattleMan]

BOB 04/2008/02 Dated: 16th September 2008



Sub: Depression over north west Bay of Bengal.



The depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of today, the 15th September 2008

near Lat. 19.50 N and Long. 88.00 E, about 180 kms east-southeast of Paradip. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a

west-northwesterly direction and cross Orissa coast between Paradip and Chandbali by today, the 16th September 2008

afternoon / evening.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm)

at isolated places is likely over Orissa during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also

likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period. Widespread rainfall with

isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over Chhatisgarh from today afternoon.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast during next 48 hours. Sea

condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[HURAKAN]

Intense convection.

[CrazyC83]

Fortunately it doesn't have much time to intensify.

[Chacor]

WTIO21 PGTW 152230
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.8N 88.0E TO 21.1N 86.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 87.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED B

[RattleMan]

BOB 04/2008/03 Dated: 16th September 2008



Sub: Depression over north west Bay of Bengal.



The depression over northwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 16th September 2008 near Lat. 19.50 N and Long. 88.00 E, about 180 kms east-southeast of Paradip. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross Orissa coast between Paradip and Chandbali by today afternoon/evening.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Orissa during next 48 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhatisgarh during the same period.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast during next 48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[Chacor]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 16-09-2008



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 16 SEPTEMBER, 2008 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 16 SEPTEMBER 2008 (.)



YESTERDAY’S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 16TH SEPTEMBER 2008 OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 20.0 DEG. NORTH AND LONG. 87.5 DEG. EAST, ABOUT 130 KMS SOUTHEAST OF CHANDBALI.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 30-35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH.



IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM, BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA NORTH OF LATITUDE 15 DEG. NORTH AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 89.0 DEG. EAST. MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE. BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 13.0 DEG. NORTH NAD 15.0 DEG. NORTH WEST OF 86.0 DEG EAST ARE ALSO SEEN. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA.



UNDER THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ORISSA COAST NEAR CHANDBALI (42973) BY TODAY, THE 16TH SEPTEMBER 2008 BETWEEN 1100 AND 1500 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Visible loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 150030.GIF

Looking great.

[HURAKAN]

16/0830 UTC 20.5N 87.6E T2.0/2.0 97B -- Bay of Bengal

[Chacor]

About to make landfall.