ATL Ex. INVEST 92L: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Copy and paste!

158
ABNT20 KNHC 151716
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE
OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure but this could be doing a very rare relocation to the southern sheared convection.

[Blown Away]

I'm not sure but this could be doing a very rare relocation to the southern sheared convection.

Please explain what makes you think that? I can clearly see the small naked LLC racing WNW.

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure but this could be doing a very rare relocation to the southern sheared convection.

Please explain what makes you think that? I can clearly see the small naked LLC racing WNW.

Blown_away its possible the center can relocate....note how the NHC yellow code issued at the 2pm EST TWO has spread out to a larger area....

I'm not sure it is happening at this moment though. 92L is just a sheared mess at this time.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
16.5N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 41W AND 55W.

[HURAKAN]

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200809151810
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Bye again!

[Evil Jeremy]

So this invest was started a few days ago, killed off yesterday, restarted this morning, and decapitated 7 hours after that? Make up your mind already lol!

[HURAKAN]

Jeremy, it's not dead yet either!

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
15/1745 UTC 19.0N 56.3W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Blown Away]

Shear dominates the Atlantic basin, I think we are now back to watching sheared LLC's again. It may be tough to get another 8 named systems for 2008.

[Blown Away]

Jeremy, it's not dead yet either!

Tough little LLC, there does not seem to be any relief from the shear no matter how far W it goes.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 20N WITH A 1012 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. 850 MB DERIVED VORTICITY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 50W-54W.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM NE QUADRANT OF
LOW CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

[Sihara]

It's an invest, then it's not, then it is, then it's not. It's making me dizzy - make up your mind ex-92L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 20N59W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-20N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2008

SE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC TO OUR N AND NE IS STRETCHING
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION. NEXT WAVE ALONG 58W THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THIS FLOW...WITH BEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY WAVE NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY UNTIL
CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE IS FORCED INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM TODAY.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2008
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 58 WEST WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WATERS.
Nothing to kill a cat, so good news for us in the islands,enjoying the nice weather of the day... :before the probable arrival of this wave thursday.

[bvigal]

Good Morning, Gusty!

Let's include the rest of NWS-SJU's discussion. I think some here may find the first paragraph helpful.
from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SSW INTO
LOCAL AREA...WITH ELONGATED UPPER LOW YIELDING CYCLONIC TURNING
ALOFT ACROSS THE NE CARIB ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO YIELD UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER LOW/TROF IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY W IN TIME...WITH
UPPER LEVEL SLY'S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT UPPER LOW HAS
INDUCED A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/TROFFING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA S
INTO THE ERN CARIB. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS
A DRY SUBSIDENT SLOT OUT JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK LLVL TROF SHIFTS W
INTO THE AREA. AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND A MILD LLVL FLOW WILL YIELD
OPTIMUM SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER
LIMITED MOISTURE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO YIELD SCATTERED DIURNAL
CNVTN OVER LAND.

SE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC TO OUR N AND NE IS STRETCHING
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION. NEXT WAVE ALONG 58W THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THIS FLOW...WITH BEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY WAVE NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY UNTIL
CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE IS FORCED INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE...WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...THEN MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST AND NW
SECTOR OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 18Z TO 21Z. AFTERWARD...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST COUPLES OF THOUSANDS FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THAT...AN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
TO AROUND 16KFT.

&&

.MARINE...VERY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. A MODEST INCREASE
WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ENSUES LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OFFSHORE
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FEET IN ELY TRADE WIND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 20 20 30 50
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

17/70/

[Gustywind]

Good Morning, Gusty!

Let's include the rest of NWS-SJU's discussion. I think some here may find the first paragraph helpful.
from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SSW INTO
LOCAL AREA...WITH ELONGATED UPPER LOW YIELDING CYCLONIC TURNING
ALOFT ACROSS THE NE CARIB ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO YIELD UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. UPPER LOW/TROF IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY W IN TIME...WITH
UPPER LEVEL SLY'S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT UPPER LOW HAS
INDUCED A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/TROFFING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA S
INTO THE ERN CARIB. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS
A DRY SUBSIDENT SLOT OUT JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK LLVL TROF SHIFTS W
INTO THE AREA. AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND A MILD LLVL FLOW WILL YIELD
OPTIMUM SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER
LIMITED MOISTURE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO YIELD SCATTERED DIURNAL
CNVTN OVER LAND.

SE STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC TO OUR N AND NE IS STRETCHING
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION. NEXT WAVE ALONG 58W THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THIS FLOW...WITH BEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY WAVE NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY UNTIL
CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE IS FORCED INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE...WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...THEN MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN COAST AND NW
SECTOR OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 18Z TO 21Z. AFTERWARD...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST COUPLES OF THOUSANDS FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. ABOVE THAT...AN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
TO AROUND 16KFT.

&&

.MARINE...VERY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. A MODEST INCREASE
WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE ENSUES LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH OFFSHORE
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FEET IN ELY TRADE WIND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 20 20 30 50
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

17/70/

Good morning my bvigal yeah you can include it. Shat you're in shape with this seductive smile and that's good because the weather is smilling nicely here in Guadeloupe .

[Sanibel]

Our 92L is still chugging along as a naked spiral out there ahead of a scattered sheared wave of convection.

Atlantic has gone negative after supporting a flurry of systems during the peak. This sudden dearth of storms makes me think we'll see more action as it turns favorable again for one last show of storms with the summer conditions still able to do so.

[Meso]

I agree and the latest GFS runs are showing another 2 or 3 storms within the next 2 odd weeks.. First being a wave coming off Africa is a few days