Was Ike not near as bad as anticipated???

[abajan]

My fear is that the damage and loss of life is much worse than what's being reported. We keep hearing about Houston, which did not get the worst of the storm. There are numerous reports of people saying that the Bolivar peninsula, Crystal Beach, and the West End were catastrophically damaged. And we know that thousands of people stayed behind to ride it out. Something's not being reported.

That would be strange. Are these people totally isolated from the rest of the country? Don't they have relatives and friends living in other parts of Texas or even other states that would have reported by now that they hadn't heard anything from them since the hurricane struck? Granted, communication facilities are down but still...

[suepeace]

My fear is that the damage and loss of life is much worse than what's being reported. We keep hearing about Houston, which did not get the worst of the storm. There are numerous reports of people saying that the Bolivar peninsula, Crystal Beach, and the West End were catastrophically damaged. And we know that thousands of people stayed behind to ride it out. Something's not being reported.

That would be strange. Are these people totally isolated from the rest of the country? Don't they have relatives and friends living in other parts of Texas or even other states that would have reported by now that they hadn't heard anything from them since the hurricane struck? Granted, communication facilities are down but still...

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I'm not usually paranoid. I am not an expert on satellite images either. But to me it looks like some of the recently released satellite images are current and some are not. Compare the Crystal Beach area to the West End. The Crystal Beach images look consistent with photos we've seen so far. But the West End area looks virtually untouched, while people have been quoted saying that the West End suffered devastating damage. I may be wrong, but something just doesn't seem right.

I've been reading here: http://www.khou.com/forums/index.php

There seem to be dozens and dozens of people who haven't heard anything from loved ones who stayed to ride it out since Friday. I can only hope the vast majority of those people up and left at the last minute after realizing how bad it was going to be and made it to safety.

[lantanatx]

I'm in the Corpus Christi area and my university closed and evacuated Wed @5pm - turns out we didn't need to, but almost everyone I've spoken to today thinks it was the right move given the forecast path that day. The campus is inland about 30 miles, so outside surge zone, though many students live in surge evacuation zones.

I gave my students an assignment to "observe" the hurricane and its biological impacts (Bio class)- media, first hand, etc. and write at least 4 (double spaced) pages about it - few were able to come up with the full page count. One student went to her parent's house in Houston and ended up right in the middle of the storm. They also took in family members from Galveston. They had tree damage but no structural damage, though neighbors did from tree falls. Her galveston family still doesn't know the fate of their house.

We talked about the hurricane and its effects in class today and over half of the students said they would not evacuate for the next storm. They listed the inconvenience, cost and poor ability of the NWS to forecast the storm as reasons why. They said they didn't want to "deal with" evac via buses, even if they were free. Even after seeing on TV the destruction on Galveston, most felt like "they would be OK" if a similar storm hit here.

[stormywaves]

I am posting from my cell (no net access) but I want to say that there is really no difference between Houston and Galveston when you talk about Galveston getting hit you might as well be talking about us. Galveston is like 40 mins away. The destruction here is terrible. There are tree down everywhere, roof damage. You can't even drive through my neighborhood without having to watch out for the down trees. Most people have no power and water. Street lights gone in most places.It is way worse than what I remember of Alicia. The storm itself was so terrifying the wind and gusts seemed to never end (I am in south east houston). Just wanted to share my personal experience. I can't watch tv so I don't know about nation wide coverage but I hope they begin to show it all so everyone will know what has happened to us here.

[stormywaves]

I am posting from my cell (no net access) but I want to say that there is really no difference between Houston and Galveston when you talk about Galveston getting hit you might as well be talking about us. Galveston is like 40 mins away. The destruction here is terrible. There are tree down everywhere, roof damage. You can't even drive through my neighborhood without having to watch out for the down trees. Most people have no power and water. Street lights gone in most places.It is way worse than what I remember of Alicia. The storm itself was so terrifying the wind and gusts seemed to never end (I am in south east houston). Just wanted to share my personal experience. I can't watch tv so I don't know about nation wide coverage but I hope they begin to show it all so everyone will know what has happened to us here.

[Mattie]

Galveston County
Daily News

Monday, September 15 | Texas' Oldest Newspaper: Since 1842

Galveston officials begin to restrict media access

By Rhiannon Meyers
The Daily News

Published September 15, 2008
GALVESTON — Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas on Monday ordered all city employees not to talk to news reporters. She did not say when that order would be lifted.

Thomas and City Manager Steve LeBlanc will be the only officials allowed to talk to reporters.

City spokeswoman Mary Jo Naschke vehemently denied the city was trying to clamp down on news coverage.

She said emergency personnel and city employees were too busy to talk to reporters. Naschke also said the city had been accommodating news reporters by allowing them access to the island when others weren't allowed, giving them escorted rides to damaged areas and allowing them to move about outside during a curfew.

But at a noon press conference on Monday, Thomas and LeBlanc talked for less than 30 minutes and refused to answer any more than five questions. Thomas said she would try to hold another press conference Tuesday.

Daily News reporters who tried to speak to city employees at rescue sites were denied information and told no one was authorized to talk to them except for the mayor and city manager.

"It's the worst thing the city could do. Those who will suffer most are evacuees," Publisher Dolph Tillotson said in statement via text message from the island. "The media will have to turn to other sources that might be less reliable. I can't imagine a dumber move under these extreme circumstances."

Before the press conference started Monday, LeBlanc asked reporters whether he could go off the record. Some television crews agreed and turned their cameras off. LeBlanc then asked news crews to urge their bosses and managers to show more coverage of the island on television because evacuees didn't care about what was happening in Houston.

All reporters who were staying at the city's emergency operations center, stationed at the San Luis Hotel, were asked to leave Monday. San Luis hotel owner Tilman Fertitta was housing reporters at the nearby Hilton Hotel, which he also owns.

Reporters would be allowed on the island, but only if they had proper identification, Thomas said. She didn't clarify what that meant.

Reporters were also forbidden from visiting areas on the far West End of FM 3005, Thomas said. She did not explain why.

[Cyclenall]

It's also fortunate that Ike never could rebuild its core before landfall.

Rebuild its core? I can't see a near category 3 hurricane that was stregnthening up to landfall with a pressure of 950 mb having no core. Where is the science behind that? Recon even showed it had a closed eyewall near landfall.

Yes, I'm quite aware there was an eyewall, as I was in it for 6+ hours. However, it was quite large and hadn't yet contracted, so the winds were quite a bit lower than they could have been.

So you do admit it had a core, you just didn't want to say it because it hit you . Compared to the previous day (Thursday), it looked like it tighted up a lot on sat.

We talked about the hurricane and its effects in class today and over half of the students said they would not evacuate for the next storm. They listed the inconvenience, cost and poor ability of the NWS to forecast the storm as reasons why. They said they didn't want to "deal with" evac via buses, even if they were free. Even after seeing on TV the destruction on Galveston, most felt like "they would be OK" if a similar storm hit here.

That is incredible. It appears that the next generation is going to be just as bad for evacuating.

[HurricaneBill]

I'm not trying to downplay the possibility of a higher death toll, but weren't there also rumors of hundreds dead in Hurricane Charley?

Again, I'm not downplaying the possibilty of a higher death toll. It's possible they're waiting for confirmation and body identification before adding more deaths.

[Sanibel]

I think we would be hearing of high deaths by now if there were. You can't cover up something like that.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm in the Corpus Christi area and my university closed and evacuated Wed @5pm - turns out we didn't need to, but almost everyone I've spoken to today thinks it was the right move given the forecast path that day. The campus is inland about 30 miles, so outside surge zone, though many students live in surge evacuation zones.

I gave my students an assignment to "observe" the hurricane and its biological impacts (Bio class)- media, first hand, etc. and write at least 4 (double spaced) pages about it - few were able to come up with the full page count. One student went to her parent's house in Houston and ended up right in the middle of the storm. They also took in family members from Galveston. They had tree damage but no structural damage, though neighbors did from tree falls. Her galveston family still doesn't know the fate of their house.

We talked about the hurricane and its effects in class today and over half of the students said they would not evacuate for the next storm. They listed the inconvenience, cost and poor ability of the NWS to forecast the storm as reasons why. They said they didn't want to "deal with" evac via buses, even if they were free. Even after seeing on TV the destruction on Galveston, most felt like "they would be OK" if a similar storm hit here.

to be blunt... your students that responded that way are asking to be given a Darwin Award

[CrazyC83]

I'm not trying to downplay the possibility of a higher death toll, but weren't there also rumors of hundreds dead in Hurricane Charley?

Again, I'm not downplaying the possibilty of a higher death toll. It's possible they're waiting for confirmation and body identification before adding more deaths.

Of the 39 deaths found so far, 23 were in states other than Texas and Louisiana...which skews the numbers (at least so far).

[VeniceInlet]

It ALWAYS "could have been worse." If 100 people died, it could have been 200. If 1000 people died, it could have been 2000. If the damage estimates are 10 billion, it could have been 20 billion. If the damage estimates are 80 billion, it could have been 100 billion.

etc.

Unless everyone and everything is completely wiped out and there's nobody left to say it, then it always "could have been worse."

I think it sort of undermines what did happen when that phrase is used every single time.

Bears repeating.

Even if the death toll is small, there's no doubt this was one of the most devastating hurricanes to hit the US coast and many, many lives were changed that night in terrible ways that only those who have gone through it can understand.

[RL3AO]

poor ability of the NWS to forecast the storm

Am I missing something here? I don't seem to remember them forecasting an Alabama hit 36 hours out.

[otowntiger]

I am posting from my cell (no net access) but I want to say that there is really no difference between Houston and Galveston when you talk about Galveston getting hit you might as well be talking about us. Galveston is like 40 mins away. The destruction here is terrible. There are tree down everywhere, roof damage. You can't even drive through my neighborhood without having to watch out for the down trees. Most people have no power and water. Street lights gone in most places.It is way worse than what I remember of Alicia. The storm itself was so terrifying the wind and gusts seemed to never end (I am in south east houston). Just wanted to share my personal experience. I can't watch tv so I don't know about nation wide coverage but I hope they begin to show it all so everyone will know what has happened to us here.

There is a big difference between trees being blown down, roof damage, and a wall of water in the form of a storm surge that demolishes everything in its way. Galveston is devastated not because of wind damage, but because of storm surge. Houston has had a lot of coverage considerging the damage is minor compared to Galveston. I'm not trying to downplay the significant damage that you see and the battering that Houston took and what you and your fellow Houstonians are going thru but it's not the kind of sensational story the media is going to plaster everywhere. By comparison Baton Rouge took the same kind of hit just over 2 weeks ago by Gustav and no one knows about it. It was the worst storm in the city's history in terms of wind speed and damage. There has been 'ZERO' mention of BR by the national media.

[Category 5]

poor ability of the NWS to forecast the storm

What forecast were you reading?

[wxman57]

So you do admit it had a core, you just didn't want to say it because it hit you . Compared to the previous day (Thursday), it looked like it tighted up a lot on sat..

What are you talking about? Of course it had an eyewall. But it was never able to rebuild its tight core that it had prior to hitting Cuba - with the Cat 4 winds. The pressure remained constant all across the Gulf. Just could never get going once it passed Cuba, though convection was increasing near the center at times. Maybe if it had had another 12-24 hours over water it could have had significantly higher winds.

[Frank2]

Per the posts about the number of Hurricane Ike fatalities on Galveston Island, this is from Wikipedia concerning the Hurricane Andrew rumors:

Andrew's catastrophic damage spawned many rumors, including claims that hundreds or even thousands of migrant farm workers in south Dade County (now Miami-Dade County) were killed and their deaths were not reported in official accounts. An investigation by the Miami Herald found no basis for such rumors. These rumors were probably based on the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, when the deaths of migrant workers initially went uncounted, and were still debated at the time of Andrew.

From my personal experience, the rumors became such a problem that those in South Dade began to say "anyone who makes those statements must live outside Dade County", since it did seem that the rumors came from those not even affected by Andrew.

Even those I worked with who lived outside the affected area (I was no longer at the NHC at the time of Andrew. but, worked at a related agency) had their own guesses:

- Victims were being stored in an unused airplane hangar;

- Someone heard deceased victims could be seen from a helicopter;

- Some said someone reported seeing many "body bags" being shipped to South Dade;

and on and on and on...

Of course, that was in the days before the Internet, so, no doubt today the Internet "conspiracy theorists" are hard at work with "what actually happened on Galveston Island".

The truth of "what really happened after Andrew", from asking many of my friends who remained in South Dade after the hurricane, aside from being without power for a long period of time, and, having to deal with a nighttime curfew each night for many months, was the problem with controlling crime in the entire area - nighttime, even with the curfew, was physically dangerous in the weeks and months after Andrew due to the number of thefts from damaged buildings - both occupied and unoccupied...

Reality and the fantasies of those "conspiracy theorists" are usually two different things, however...

[Sanibel]

I saw a picture in the NY Times today of Gilchrist. There was only one well-built stilt house standing on a barrier strip containing hundreds of washed away house sites. The house survived because it was built with the stilts implanted in a firm concrete slab. "He who builds upon the rock" I guess. There were two, maybe three surviving houses in the far background but the rest were a tsunami-like landscape of total obliteration. Those who got out said that many stayed behind in areas like this and that they don't know what happened to them. The one escape route from Bolivar was at Rollover Pass which went underwater at 9am Friday. From this I'm assuming there are many dead killed in the surge who haven't been accounted for. You can only multiply this for the areas where similar devastation occurred in relation to the numbers who stayed behind and attempted to ride it out. A person whose stilts were described as being 16 feet said the surge came into the first floor before waves knocked out the walls. That would make the surge over 20 feet.

[Frank2]

As mentioned after other disasters, the number of missing is often determined by the inquires of others - if there aren't any inquiries from the public, then, there's at least a reasonable chance that no one is missing...

But, as also often said by previous experience, the inquiries from family or friends often takes days or more before the number of missing become clear...

A friend of mine just today told me that she and her friends rented a house on the Bolivar Peninsula just the weekend before, but, have heard that the house is now gone, however, the owner used it as a rental investment, so, it will take time before it is determined just how many people stayed behind...

As in my own case after Andrew, due to confusion my name was left on a missing person's list for 3 weeks, and, I heard of many who were displaced but someone forgot to tell someone they were safe, and, were also considered unaccounted for...

Frank

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think if there was widespread death in the storm surge they'd be finding bodies by now.


There may be a few bodies not found right away, but I'm getting more confident we aren't dealing with Katrina type numbers.


Off to the gym. They have running water for a nice, hot shower, and my house doesn't.