BOB TWO-B: Deep Depression - Discussion

[salmon123]

HOW MUCH POSSIBILITY TO VENTURE AGAIN INTO ARABIAN SEA AND REDEVOLUP?

[Chacor]

STOP TYPING IN ALL CAPS — it's very annoying. Only paste advisories in all caps if that's the original form.

[Chacor]

JTWC/NRL now have this as TC 02B.

[HURAKAN]

HOW MUCH POSSIBILITY TO VENTURE AGAIN INTO ARABIAN SEA AND REDEVOLUP?

I think it will be very difficult for the system to make it across the Indian subcontinent.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152221Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO31 PGTW 161500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.6N 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.1N 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 87.3E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 152221Z
SEP 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 152230 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z.

[HURAKAN]

16/1430 UTC 21.3N 87.1E T2.5/2.5 02B -- Bay of Bengal

[Chacor]

Landfall at 1200z:

BOB 04/2008/07 Dated: 16th September 2008



Sub: Deep Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal crossing Orissa coast.



The deep depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and crossing Orissa coast near Chandbali at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 16th September 2008. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Orissa during next 36 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhatisgarh and isolated heavy fall is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period.



Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 12 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

346
WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 86.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 86.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.0N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
FIXES INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 02B
HAS TRACKED INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING OVER LAND AND WEAKEN BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD BY TAU 12. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 9 FEET.//

[HURAKAN]

Moving inland.

[HURAKAN]

Still looks great.

[HURAKAN]

[badkhan]

How come it developed an eye after it crossed over to land?

[CrazyC83]

How come it developed an eye after it crossed over to land?

That seems to be becoming commonplace these days!

My guess is 45 kt for the landfall intensity.

[Chacor]

Certainly at least a closed eyewall feature.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall:


Inland:




Very, very interesting.

[CrazyC83]

Shades of Fay halfway around the world?

[Derek Ortt]

I think that eye means it is a deep depression now

[CrazyC83]

I think that eye means it is a deep depression now

Deep depression = a low-end tropical storm on our side of the world (equivalent to about 35-40 kt in 1-min sustained). That looks more like a Cyclonic Storm (mid-range tropical storm) or even on the low end of Severe Cyclonic Storm (high-end tropical storm or Category 1 equivalent).