ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

For those outside of hurricane areas, at this point on Sanibel after hurricane Charley there were mutual aid crews of electric company trucks swarming everywhere working 24 hour shifts. The names on the electric trucks were from all over the eastern half of the country. They were busy restoring electric lines etc. Combined with these were tree service contractor trucks with giant hydraulic claws that ran around cleaning up streets of downed trees and debris. There were burning pits set up to burn the collected debris in order to get rid of it. These operations ran for months after the hurricane. I decided to pitch in and took a brush and swept our street to keep it tidy amidst the destruction and messy clean-up debris. This was after helping chainsaw some large trees that snapped off and luckily ran parallel to the driveway instead of smashing the house. We were without power for several days but lucked out because our electric came in on lines that ran parallel to the winds and didn't snap. So we were restored after only a week. Some people went without power for over 3 weeks. We were lucky because our roof was good. The next door neighbor had all their tin stripped off by a small tornado. They are busy right now in Houston/Galveston.

[cancunkid]

I am curious. Does anyone know how long it takes for people who are missing in a hurricane to be declared dead and counted among the death toll? I just look at the photos of Bolivar Peninsula and think well of course they aren't going to find any bodies. I first started thinking about it when I had read people pointing out that after Katrina people in NO were on roofs with signs trying to be rescued. Of course NO was not actually flooded by surge but more poor engineering so it was water rising without the suck you out to sea aspect. I am thrilled if the low death counts hold true but I know their are a lot of people who won't leave their homes or their boats in a hurricane, I gotta figure some of them just disappear.

[wxman57]

there was a study presented at the past AMS hurricane conference that indicated most in this very area would not evacuate for a category 2 hurricane, but would for a 3. Hopefully, this mistake will never be repeated

Many of those are the same people who suffered damage from cat 1 winds in Rita.

The media MUST do a better job of helping to educate the public about what they really went through. it is this mentality of "I survived a 3" when you survived a cat 1 that gets people killed.

as an aside, I am also in favor of forced evacuations by the military with draconian punishments for ignoring the order

To add to that, Derek, many people here in Houston/Galveston THINK they went through a hurricane when Rita passed well to the east. They are mostly clueless. Ike was a very large Category 2, but even a large Category 1 hurricane could have done similar damage to Galveston. As I keep saying, it's not the peak wind (SS rating) that produces the damage, it's the size of the hurricane force wind field. People need to evacuate for ANY hurricane if they're in a surge zone.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am not sure where to post this so if it is in the wrong forum I am sorry.
I am very hesitant to post this afriad that it may cause undo panic, but I am hoping that someone here may know something about this also.
I can not confirm this, but a deputy that my husband works with told him this afternoon that his mother is a manager for a Shell Gas station and when she called to order gas she was told to bag the pumps indefinitely, that Shell along with Tom Thumb and Walmart were boycotting the gas companies due to the fact that they were going to haft to pay .80 more per gallon , they are hoping this strike will force the Gas Industry to back off. They are not buying gas until they can buy it at a fair price.
Once more I can not confirm that this is true- I can say that here in Pensacola it has been very hard to find gas for the past few days, the Tom Thumb by my house has not had gas since Friday night.
I am not trying to cause a panic, I hardly ever post here but this seemed like it may be something that someone here can maybe verify. I know there was a post a while back of someone who's son worked for one of the oil co's.
Also- my thoughts and prayer go out to all IKE victims. I wish I could do more.

I heard on the news today the opposite, that gas stations are holding out to buy gas because if they wait till the price goes up they can make more money than if they fill the tanks now. They also said they can't confirm this but thats what they had heard. They also said there is not a gas shortage but people panicking and all running to the pumps to fill up is causing some gas stations to run out before they can be filled again. The supply can't keep up with the demand. So if everyone just goes about getting gas as usual there shouldn't be a problem. I have been on E for 2 days now, I will be putting in my normal $30-$40 tomorrow. Haven't noticed a problem at all at our local HESS, and prices today were about 3.80.

Heres a great site about gas, enter your zip code and all gas stations in your area pop up.
I didn't realize but alot of stations around my house have N/A under Plus, Premium and Diesel.
http://autos.msn.com/everyday/GasStatio ... &x=12&y=13

Oil prices are plummeting through the $90s now, lowest in forever. But the refineries along the Gulf Coast are mostly down, either damaged or without electricity, so refined gasoline will be in short supply, so prices will rise. No secret conspiracy to gouge on prices, just a serious shortage of refined product.

I missed the Cowboys on Monday night football. Darned CenterPoint. But it really cooled off from the weekend, and I slept like a baby last night. But I'm ready for electricity and water pressure again. I had water pressure Sunday, and it went away.


BTW, not sure why Texans can't play at Reliant just because a third of the roof is missing. Never stopped the Cowboys.

Edit to add- still have more roof than Texas Stadium, and most teams play outdoors anyway.

[WmE]

Because there is debris and water damages in and around the stadium.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Glad to hear that you got a good night's sleep Ed! Sorry, though, that you didn't get to watch the game. It was a very exciting, entertaining and hard fought game!

Normally, I'm a Buc's fan all of the way but, I was rooting for the Cowboys last night! The people of Texas needed and deserved that win! Sometimes it's the little things that help folks get through the extremely difficult emotional aspects of going through these storms and their aftermath.

So happy to know that you're hanging in there!

God bless Texas!
~Nikki~

[somethingfunny]

I am curious. Does anyone know how long it takes for people who are missing in a hurricane to be declared dead and counted among the death toll? I just look at the photos of Bolivar Peninsula and think well of course they aren't going to find any bodies. I first started thinking about it when I had read people pointing out that after Katrina people in NO were on roofs with signs trying to be rescued. Of course NO was not actually flooded by surge but more poor engineering so it was water rising without the suck you out to sea aspect. I am thrilled if the low death counts hold true but I know their are a lot of people who won't leave their homes or their boats in a hurricane, I gotta figure some of them just disappear.

In Mississippi following Katrina the death toll rose very quickly after the storm as rescuers were finding dozens of bodies all together in some hotels and apartment complexes. Since this doesn't seem to have happened yet with Ike, hopefully that bodes well....perhaps more people evacuated that was originally estimated.

[inda_iwall]

I know this is way off topic, but needs to be said for my piece of mind. Yesterday I posted a comment about people who went through Wilma, and belittled what they went through as compared to people in Galveston. The comment was ill-thought out and I apologize. It has been bugging me and I wanted to publicly apologize to anyone I offended, I was angry because I felt like they were being selfish by complaining about what they went through and comparing it to those who went through Ike or Katrina. But when someone loses everything they own, it is a personal tragedy, one that is very real and should not be discounted. Being someone who lost everything to Ivan, eventually having to file bankruptcy as well from it, I should know better than to have made that statement. I just feel so bad for those over there dealing with Ike. I saw the hope in people's eyes before the storm and just knew what was coming for them and it hurt. And I felt like I needed to defend their tragedy for them. Sorry for those who I offended, my emotions are still raw from everything that happened since Ivan destroyed my life.

And as far as arguing with the pro mets and NHC early on in the tracking, it was because I had a gut feeling they were wrong with the Miami landfall and then with the South Texas landfall. I just somehow knew it was going to hit North/East of Galveston. Seemed like I just saw it unfolding and noone was listening. I also realize I have the luxury of going with a gut-feeling, because I do not have millions of lives in the balance like the Pros do, they do not have the luxury of going with gut-feelings. I just hope that we can learn from this, that the cone of error is just that, a cone of error

[jinftl]

Just to add to your kind words, speaking as someone who responded to your post on Wilma yesterday, in no way did I intend to diminish what those going through ike are dealing with. The images from Galveston, the Bolivar Peninsula, and other areas in the path of the surge are as horrific as any we have seen. Ike will probably be remembered as a tale of 2 storms....the cat 4 or 5 surge storm and the cat 1/2 wind storm inland. Saying 'it could have been worse' really doesn't help those who had their worlds smashed to bits.

This storm challenged alot of myths about where storms can hit in september and what cat 2 surge can become....we have learned that it is more about the size of the windfield over water that can matter with surge and that if the timing and location of highs and troughs is just right, anywhere can in theory get hit in september. This makes us on one hand feel more educated, but knowing what we know now, more vulnerable as well.

A storm doesn't have to become a top 3 disaster in terms of $ to be a huge disaster...and the $ total is more academic next to the human cost on lives and livelihood. In this era where we are seeing more storms it seems, it is not illogical to expect more landfalls. And more landfalls means that areas that haven't had direct hits in years need to take each storm threat as real and not make any assumptions about a storm threat based on past misses, hits, etc. Only 1 of the top 3 storms in terms of $ damage was a cat 5 at landfall. A cat 2 or 3 hitting the heart of a densely populated city could be just as deadly and damaging (or more) as a cat 5 hitting a less urbanized area or region.

I know this is way off topic, but needs to be said for my piece of mind. Yesterday I posted a comment about people who went through Wilma, and belittled what they went through as compared to people in Galveston. The comment was ill-thought out and I apologize. It has been bugging me and I wanted to publicly apologize to anyone I offended, I was angry because I felt like they were being selfish by complaining about what they went through and comparing it to those who went through Ike or Katrina. But when someone loses everything they own, it is a personal tragedy, one that is very real and should not be discounted. Being someone who lost everything to Ivan, eventually having to file bankruptcy as well from it, I should know better than to have made that statement. I just feel so bad for those over there dealing with Ike. I saw the hope in people's eyes before the storm and just knew what was coming for them and it hurt. And I felt like I needed to defend their tragedy for them. Sorry for those who I offended, my emotions are still raw from everything that happened since Ivan destroyed my life.

And as far as arguing with the pro mets and NHC early on in the tracking, it was because I had a gut feeling they were wrong with the Miami landfall and then with the South Texas landfall. I just somehow knew it was going to hit North/East of Galveston. Seemed like I just saw it unfolding and noone was listening. I also realize I have the luxury of going with a gut-feeling, because I do not have millions of lives in the balance like the Pros do, they do not have the luxury of going with gut-feelings. I just hope that we can learn from this, that the cone of error is just that, a cone of error

[southerngale]

Well, they're making a little progress. I hope we get electricity much sooner than anticipated.


Entergy Announces Timeline for Restoration of Service

September 16, 2008 - 10:35AM
Scott Lawrence

Entergy Texas President & CEO Joe Domino is outlining a plan to restore electric service following Hurricane Ike, and he says all but a small number of customers should have power by October 6.

During a conference call with reporters, Domino said as of 5 a.m. Tuesday, Entergy had restored power to 22,000 of Entergy's 390,000 customers in Texas. Domino says the pace of recovery will steadily increase.



Restoration Timeline:

*Beaumont, Bevil Oaks, Sour Lake - October 6

*Saratoga - October 5

*Silsbee, Lumberton, Kountze - September 29

*Woodville - September 29

*Mid Jefferson County - September 23

*Winnie - September 25

*Vidor - September 21

Restoration will continue after October 6 for rural areas and other locations where a small number of customers are without power.

Areas where floodwaters make it impossible at this time to restore power include Sabine Pass and Bolivar Peninsula.

Domino says more than 14,000 workers from 32 states and the District of Columbia, are working to restore power. There was significant damage to the company's transmission system in Texas. 186 transmission lines were out of service. 31 have now been restored. 282 substations were out of service. 64 are back. Hurricane Ike destroyed 98 transmission structures.

[alicia83]

Here's an odd story:

Just before the storm hit, there were about 5 people at Chrystal Beach on Bolivar who called in needing to be rescued which they were after the storm. They'd sought shelter in one building only to need to move to a Baptist church when the waters started rising. When they entered the church, they found a man holed up in there with what they said was his pet lion on a chain. Needless to say, they elected not to stay there despite the man saying his pet was tame.

Well it seems it wasn't a pet lion, but a tiger, and it is now hungry and running loose at Chrystal Beach, adding more danger to first responders.

[artist]

Here's an odd story:

Just before the storm hit, there were about 5 people at Chrystal Beach on Bolivar who called in needing to be rescued which they were after the storm. They'd sought shelter in one building only to need to move to a Baptist church when the waters started rising. When they entered the church, they found a man holed up in there with what they said was his pet lion on a chain. Needless to say, they elected not to stay there despite the man saying his pet was tame.

Well it seems it wasn't a pet lion, but a tiger, and it is now hungry and running loose at Chrystal Beach, adding more danger to first responders.

Not good news at all. Do you have a link? I had actually heard that they had rescued the man and the tiger.

[cycloneye]

Normally,we lock the main threads of systems after the last advisory is released after 2 days and move them to the archieves forum.But as long replies continue to be posted the thread will remain open.However,there are threads about the aftermath of Ike at the Hurricane Recovery and Aftermath forum that the members may want to replie there too.

viewforum.php?f=33

[jinftl]

fyi....early estimates....and these are very early and likely will go up....of ike insured damages are between $8 - $18 billion.

http://www.lloyds.com/dj/DowJonesArticle.aspx?id=404354

[alicia83]

Here's an odd story:

Just before the storm hit, there were about 5 people at Chrystal Beach on Bolivar who called in needing to be rescued which they were after the storm. They'd sought shelter in one building only to need to move to a Baptist church when the waters started rising. When they entered the church, they found a man holed up in there with what they said was his pet lion on a chain. Needless to say, they elected not to stay there despite the man saying his pet was tame.

Well it seems it wasn't a pet lion, but a tiger, and it is now hungry and running loose at Chrystal Beach, adding more danger to first responders.

Not good news at all. Do you have a link? I had actually heard that they had rescued the man and the tiger.

No link, only coverage by KHOU TV. The 2nd. report was that the man and tiger were in the church and search and rescue was going to let them stay there! I just caught the last of a later press conference that said the tiger was now loose at Crystal Beach. I would guess the tiger has been seen, and will need to be tranquilized and removed.

[artist]

Here's an odd story:

Just before the storm hit, there were about 5 people at Chrystal Beach on Bolivar who called in needing to be rescued which they were after the storm. They'd sought shelter in one building only to need to move to a Baptist church when the waters started rising. When they entered the church, they found a man holed up in there with what they said was his pet lion on a chain. Needless to say, they elected not to stay there despite the man saying his pet was tame.

Well it seems it wasn't a pet lion, but a tiger, and it is now hungry and running loose at Chrystal Beach, adding more danger to first responders.

Not good news at all. Do you have a link? I had actually heard that they had rescued the man and the tiger.

No link, only coverage by KHOU TV. The 2nd. report was that the man and tiger were in the church and search and rescue was going to let them stay there! I just caught the last of a later press conference that said the tiger was now loose at Crystal Beach. I would guess the tiger has been seen, and will need to be tranquilized and removed.

thanks Alicia.

[fasterdisaster]

I am curious. Does anyone know how long it takes for people who are missing in a hurricane to be declared dead and counted among the death toll? I just look at the photos of Bolivar Peninsula and think well of course they aren't going to find any bodies. I first started thinking about it when I had read people pointing out that after Katrina people in NO were on roofs with signs trying to be rescued. Of course NO was not actually flooded by surge but more poor engineering so it was water rising without the suck you out to sea aspect. I am thrilled if the low death counts hold true but I know their are a lot of people who won't leave their homes or their boats in a hurricane, I gotta figure some of them just disappear.

They are declared 'legally dead' after 12 months. However this does not mean if they are subsequently found alive that they can not be declared found and taken off the 'death toll'. Even though they're legally dead though sources may still give something like '100 dead, 50 missing' for a death toll.

[Shoshana]

<respectfully snipped>

This storm challenged alot of myths about where storms can hit in september

<also respectfully snipped>

Not arguing and I understand what you're saying but some of the most infamous hurricanes have hit Texas in September (1900 Sept 8, Carla Sept 11, now Ike Sept 13) so I'm not sure how much of a myth it is that Texas doesn't get hit in September.

[jinftl]

absolutely right....if anything, i should have said the 'more recent and historically inaccurate belief' only some have expressed...

<respectfully snipped>

This storm challenged alot of myths about where storms can hit in september

<also respectfully snipped>

Not arguing and I understand what you're saying but some of the most infamous hurricanes have hit Texas in September (1900 Sept 8, Carla Sept 11, now Ike Sept 13) so I'm not sure how much of a myth it is that Texas doesn't get hit in September.

[KatDaddy]

Still do not have power at the house in League City. Currently in Pearland where mom has power and the Internet. What a ride but the house is ok. The storm panels did very good. I am guessing 80-100mph winds but have found it may have been higher. Friendswood firestation recorded 120mph. Trying to do a quick post of photos on Photobucket. These will be the first photos for the wife. I will have much to catch up on once my Internet comes online.