Perturbed Area over Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 93L)

Gustywind · #21 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 8:19 pm

I have numerous scattered ligthnings in vicinity, winds are calm without any rain or very very light in my location...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is the latest weather conditions in Guadeloupe:
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at Sep 17, 2008 - 09:00 PM EDTSep 17, 2008 -
Wind from the N (360 degrees) at 2 MPH (2 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)

#22 Postby **Fego** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 9:46 pm

According to the 8:00 p.m. TWD the axis wave was relocated at 68W.. then, the growing convection at 62W is...?

[img]

[/img]

Gustywind · #23 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 9:48 pm

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 10N38W 10N43W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 7N-14N W OF 50W.
Activity seems to diminished a bit tkanks to the shear...

but as usual convection could refire at any time without bringing apparently an organized system, we should monitor as usual the situation, but with my untrained eyes nothing serious in terms of developpement....(TD or more) just cool amount of water could be expect tommorow as we're always in yellow alert.

Gustywind · #24 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 9:56 pm

Fego wrote:According to the 8:00 p.m. TWD the axis wave was relocated at 68W.. then, the growing convection at 62W is...?

[img]
[/img]

Yeah very strange lol, looks like it's in relation with the ITCZ? :roll:

Have a good night FEGO time is up for me

. We should have a better idea of this system tommorow, but the trend for the moment subjectively this year near WIndwards/Leewards seems that we're blessed often when a system is approaching very closely the islands, quickly sheared and collapsing or lacking of convection with my untrained eyes or my eyes are deceiveing me?:cheesy: :lol:

.
Hope that the next 3weeks will be the same..blessing trend

.

Gustywind · #25 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:15 am

Waouw for 20 minutes :eek:

heavy rainfall here, convection has reactived this morning, two huge bulks are doting the area.... http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...

DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 59W-63W.

#26 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:17 am

Shear still strong in the upper levels.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:20 am

The action looks like its all on top of you guys in Guadeloupe.What observations you can see about this bad weather there?

#28 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:22 am

Gusty, lots of deep convection over you, I expect your response to have lots of smilies.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:27 am

#30 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:31 am

Now that's deep! :uarrow:

#31 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:32 am

cycloneye wrote:The action looks like its all on top of you guys in Guadeloupe.What observations you can see about this bad weather there?

Gray and dark. Raining and no wind; That's here on Dominica.

#32 Postby **abajan** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:32 am

Satellite pix show a lot of that convection headed my way and sure enough, this morning opened dark with some light showers. It's getting darker by the minute and showers are becoming more numerous and heavier but there's no thunder (as yet) in my area. A number of street lights are still on because there's not enough sunlight to activate their sensors.

I love this type of weather!

#33 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:48 am

I'm sure the satellite loop is deceiving me, but it appears there is a slight rotation w/ the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

#34 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:54 am

Rotation? I don't see it.

#35 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:59 am

715
ABNT20 KNHC 181158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

#36 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 7:03 am

Blown_away wrote:I'm sure the satellite loop is deceiving me, but it appears there is a slight rotation w/ the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Then I must have been in the eye for the last 2 hours :grrr:

Absolutely no winds att all.

Strange weather. Persistent showers and I have my lights on inside the house because it's really dark.

:raincloud:

#37 Postby **abajan** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 7:12 am

expat2carib wrote:...I have my lights on inside the house because it's really dark.

Yep. I may end up doing the same thing shortly because it's becoming quite dark here too and I just heard the first roll of thunder somewhere far off.

Gustywind · #38 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 7:13 am

Blown_away wrote:

Gusty, lots of deep convection over you, I expect your response to have lots of smilies.

YEAH you're right

with that weather:awfull gray dark sad with heavy rain since 4 am and with a peak during 4AM to 4am30minutes, rain was falling like rocks on the roof amazing. After that break at 5am rain has not stopped, winds are calm no thunderstorms, but it's moist here and amounts near 100 millimeters in my location is not impossible!!!
Stay tuned i will have more infos, as i'm woking up, but i'm smelling very unstelled weather conditions today!

#39 Postby **abajan** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 7:18 am

Whoa! Just heard a much louder peal of thunder! :eek:

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 7:40 am

Perturbed Area over Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 93L)

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

Re: Little Perturbed Area east of Martinica trying to organize?

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