Was Ike not near as bad as anticipated???

[docjoe]

we had similar rumors in Milton, Florida after Ivan. The story went that 20 or 30 people had a hurricane party at a waterfront beer joint that was washed away and that the deaths were being covered up. No one actually knew anyone that supposedly was there but heard it from a friend. it of course turned out to be false. it amazes me that with all the destruction and loss of a major storm some still feel the need to exaggerate it. Trust me that when you see it firsthand there is no need to exaggerate

docjoe

[Stormtrack]

I don't know what the national TV media is reporting since our cable is still out and all I can get is Houston channels 2, 11 and 13 with rabbit ears, but coverage of the aftermath is all they have on the Houston channels or at least every time I tune in. A lot of the people in Houston have to catch it on the radio since a lot of them don't have electricity. The situation looks really bad in Houston, Galveston, and in between. I live in Angleton about 40 miles south of Houston and 40 miles west of Galveston, so we were on the clean side and didn't have it quite so bad although there is a lot of debris, some trees uprooted, fences down,etc.

[Aslkahuna]

Two words give another reason for less than usual post storm coverage-Lehman Brothers.

Steve

[Sanibel]

One thing that becomes clear with me in hindsight is Florida missed a bad storm by luck and that the ridge pushing down was sort of like last year's freakish westerly positioned ridges in the Caribbean. Without the plunging ridge Florida very highly likely would have received a straight and unhindered Ike right across the waters that powered Andrew. If you think Ike was historic in the Bahamas and Gulf you should imagine what it would have been with a bee-line into SE Florida without any land stops in Cuba.

[jinftl]

track like Andrew + Ike's windfield & strength as a Cat 4 in the Turks & Caicos = 1926 Miami Hurricane more or less (within 30 miles or so). Estimates of that occuring today put damage at $160 billion...twice that of Katrina....costliest scenario of any region. Not to mention who would have been in the second landfall once Ike crossed back into the Gulf.....could have had the same TX landfall but after pounding south florida. Or potentially, south florida followed by new orleans. I am scared to imagine how the levees would have been with a direct hit if we saw 9' water rises with the storm over 250 miles away from SE LA.

One thing that becomes clear with me in hindsight is Florida missed a bad storm by luck and that the ridge pushing down was sort of like last year's freakish westerly positioned ridges in the Caribbean. Without the plunging ridge Florida very highly likely would have received a straight and unhindered Ike right across the waters that powered Andrew. If you think Ike was historic in the Bahamas and Gulf you should imagine what it would have been with a bee-line into SE Florida without any land stops in Cuba.

[lantanatx]

poor ability of the NWS to forecast the storm

What forecast were you reading?

Just repeating what the students were saying....
Remember though, last Wednesday they had the forecast track headed to Baffin Bay (south of C.C.) then San Antonio Bay, and then Matagorda Bay in three successive updates. That's what my students remember, because that afternoon they closed the campus and sent everyone off campus. I tried to explain the "cone of uncertainty" but they focus on the line, not the cone.

In contrast to Houston/Galveston, our area governments started to advise folks to prepare for evacuation as soon as the forecast track pointed toward us on Wednesday, and even well after the models showed a Galveston area hit was more likely. Frankly, I'd rather err on this side than make the mistake that the Galveston area leaders did, but for a certain group of people it does unfortunately mean they will be less willing to evacuate when the next storm comes.

[Rod Hagen]

As far as the death toll goes it is surely going to depend on how many people were really on Bolivar, and in the west end of Galveston Island.

On the positive side, many of those houses on Bolivar were probably only occupied during holidays, or for parts of the year. On the negative side, if people were in them then , looking at the photographs , they will probably never be found. Heck, it is hard enough to see where the houses have gone, let alone any occupants. The Gulf of Mexico is a big place.

It will take a long, long time to work out how many people are missing I fear. Pretty hard to imagine it won't eventually climb into at least the hundreds, though, I would think.

[Sanibel]

If people got out to say "many of my friends stayed behind" well then it is possible those friends somehow got out too. No doubt bodies will start washing up as well as people will figure out who stayed behind and who hasn't been heard from since. Pretty grim.

[Dean4Storms]

If you owned a home out in Crystal Beach it couldn't be much worse.

[Frank2]

I agree, from what my friend told me, apparently a number of those houses were "beachfront rental" homes, so, there's a good chance they were not occupied at the time...

It really irritates me that those who start the rumors are not those who are actually out their breaking their backs by volunteering their time and energy - the volunteers and others out there are the ones who actually "know what happened on Galveston Island", but, they are usually too busy to waste time to counter those sitting at home in their bunny slippers who do waste everyone's time by thinking up foolish "conspiracy theories"...

As someone else here said, this nonsense has happened after other hurricanes, and, Ike is no exception...

Golly...

[Sanibel]

I don't know Frank2, the people quoted in the Times article were people who either luckily survived or were luckily plucked out from in front when the waters rose. They aren't the 'conspiracy' types. You have to admit anyone trying to stay in those tsunami areas would not have a very good chance. Survivors are the ones saying they know people who stayed.

[Frank2]

Yes, that is true, but, as time passes and no one reports anyone as missing, you then have to start to wonder if anyone is missing...

True, folks like myself who live alone are vulnerable to falling through the cracks when it comes to not being reported as missing, but, in a case like this, you'd have to think that any family or friends would have contacted someone in authority by now to report them missing, or, to at least say that they cannot contact them...

Unforuntately, I'd have to agree that at least a few more victims will be found, but, hopefully it's only a few, and, not a few hundred...

Let's not forget, too, that in the 1900 disaster, no one left the island, unlike in this case, when the majority did leave - I personally think TWC and others did the public a disservice last week by comparing Ike with the 1900 hurricane, since they are two distinctly different events, over a century apart...

Frank

[artist]

We used to visit Crystal Beach for vacation and most of the island is rental homes. There are those that live there year round but I wouldn't be surprised if there are only 20%, if that. The north end of the Bolivar peninsula floods with every hurricane that comes that way, so people usually evacuate there. I think this is the only saving grace so far as the death toll not being massive. As well as, from the pictures I have seen, those that did lose their lives on the peninsula may never be found. One of the hardest aspects of this storm, with it being a vacation home community, is finding out who had rented, may not have left, etc. It could take months to find out the actual number missing. But, it is probably a blessing that it is mostly vacation home rentals. There are several agencies that rented the bulk of the homes there and at least they usually have a list of which owners were there as well as which homes may have been occupied with renters.

[ROCK]

We spent about 6 hours in the western eyewall of Ike. Mostly strong TS winds and a brief period of hurricane force sustained wind near 6am Saturday. Northerly winds in Galveston Bay prevented a much bigger storm surge from moving into the Bay. But Bolivar Peninsula was wiped out. It's also fortunate that Ike never could rebuild its core before landfall.

so did I,,,,though given the intensity of winds I would say they were within hurricane force through out with higher gusts. That western eye wall was a buger....scariest thing I have ever been through. I can say that.....

not to mention the street hurricane party before and riding it out hung over like a big dog...wont do that again....

[fci]

About every thing I am reading in this thread is correct; but I would like to just state a few comments from my prespective as an almost lifelong resident of South Florida who has followed hurricanes all my life.

- Yes, it could have been a lot worse for Texas. Tell that to those who lost their houses and they would want to smack you. But.... Ike could have been a Cat 4 with an even higher storm surge and hit 20 miles south of where he did and the devastation would have been horrendously worse both in physical damage and lives lost

- A Cat 2 is nothing to scoff at. Cat 1's do a lot of damage and don't get respected which is a mistake. We got our butts whipped down here by Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma and none of them were above a Cat 2 (I think...)

- When people have to evacuate and it ends up being for naught, they will be reluctant to do it next time. We can rail all we want about how short-sighted that is but it is human nature.

- Whining about media coverage is just that ; whining.
What do you want the media to do?
If you don't live in the area, it is a boring story after the first day.
Don't go out there and "flame" me about this comment; but how much do people who are NOT in the area want to see?
It becomes redundant and viewers will turn the channel to watch the financial crisis, a ballgame or the latest volleys between Obama and McCain.
Sorry folks, but I believe that is the reality.

[Sihara]

About every thing I am reading in this thread is correct; but I would like to just state a few comments from my prespective as an almost lifelong resident of South Florida who has followed hurricanes all my life.

- Yes, it could have been a lot worse for Texas. Tell that to those who lost their houses and they would want to smack you. But.... Ike could have been a Cat 4 with an even higher storm surge and hit 20 miles south of where he did and the devastation would have been horrendously worse both in physical damage and lives lost

- A Cat 2 is nothing to scoff at. Cat 1's do a lot of damage and don't get respected which is a mistake. We got our butts whipped down here by Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma and none of them were above a Cat 2 (I think...)

- When people have to evacuate and it ends up being for naught, they will be reluctant to do it next time. We can rail all we want about how short-sighted that is but it is human nature.

You're absolutely right about cats 1 & 2, and yes they should be respected. No two hurricanes are exactly alike, but they are all chaotic, and even the "minors" can wreak havoc. As you say, Katrina & Wilma were 2s, but I saw Wilma pictures I could hardly believe, including one of a commercial building (think it was a restaurant) where cinder block walls and pieces of roof were mangled in the road, and other such damage. I do think either Frances or Jeanne was a 3, maybe both. Either way, they made an horrendous mess. And when Jeanne got over here, it started going back up to hurricane-force and we were w/o power for a week. Roof damage on some homes on our street.

- Whining about media coverage is just that ; whining.
What do you want the media to do?
If you don't live in the area, it is a boring story after the first day.
Don't go out there and "flame" me about this comment; but how much do people who are NOT in the area want to see?
It becomes redundant and viewers will turn the channel to watch the financial crisis, a ballgame or the latest volleys between Obama and McCain.
Sorry folks, but I believe that is the reality

Actually, my personal op is that the word "whining" is a bit overused, but you're probably right about the media coverage. I know I'd prefer to see what actually happened, and I hear a lot of complaints about lack of coverage - there's a lot to be learned from seeing the terrible conditions and what actually happens when a large hurricane strikes. But others probably feel differently. Someone suggested that the Lehman fiasco knocked Ike off the news and maybe so. (Down here, the Lehman's mess will have severe repercussions for our state insuror, Citizens, but that's a whole nother topic.)

As far as the ballgame, I'm sure many would have preferred it (sorry, but... zzzz) - and as for the McSame/Obamarama, well, ugh.


It kinda reminds me of, back when Opal was approaching and they had trouble getting the message across to people in the threatened area - because the media was obsessing about the scandal du jour, which I believe was OJ.

[Sanibel]

There is a certain number of bodies that would wash up in ratio to the number killed. If no bodies are washing up there could be a low death rate in this case.

[cpdaman]

the spooky thing to me about the west end of galveston island is the FACT that there is a

new LEVEL 4 "biosafety" lab located on there (on a barrier island) , the gross stupidity of putting such a hazardous plant on a barrier island speaks levels to me, having a complex that houses some of the most dangerous diseases in mankind's history, in an area prone to storm surge is alarming and stupifying to say the least, are they letting anyone (media) over on the west end yet? Hopefully this lab was not overcome with surge, i don't think it was, but i wonder how close a call it may have been.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Biohazard lab, where they play with avian flu and the hemorhagic fevers that cause death in 90% of the infected population was, in fact, part of the University of Texas Medical Branch, on the East End. Flooded there as well, but with any luck the Lassa fever outbreak has been contained.

[Ptarmigan]

Maybe, just possibly they're letting the responders get their work done without the media hovering over them. I'd rather wait to see images and reports so the responders can get in there and get their work done. We don't need the media there "bottlenecking" the recovery efforts.

Sometimes too mich media attention hampers recovery effort. Where I am, it's been wall to wall coverage.