Too early to think about next fall/winter?

#21 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:11 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:Now about winter, I've said it every year and I will say it again this year, "IF" it's cold enought for pants and heavy jackets on Halloween night here, then winter (Dec-Feb) will be average to colder than average in NTX. "IF" it's wet, and cold on Halloween, then we will have better than average chances for snow/Ice thru the winter months.

Last year was shorts weather for Halloween, Hot and sticky. I think it was in the lower 80's and we saw what winter was like in NTX last year. :

Where were you during the first week of March 2008? :cold:

roebear · #22 Postby **roebear** » Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:46 pm

Anybody see the lack of sunspots so far, very few and far between:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... otlessdays

article a little old...some predictions are for a "weak" solar cycle 24 and 25, which would indicate cold winters next decade or two...

How about some discussion on this or even a new topic, right now I won't have the time for a couple of weeks....

Thanks

#23 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 10:14 am

Farmer's Almanac forecast for Halloween for the southern plains:

October 2008
1st-3rd Wet over the Southern Plains.
4th-7th Heavy rain for Texas and Gulf Coast; cold.
8th-11th Sunny, then wet for New Mexico through Oklahoma, northern Texas.
12th-15th Clearing and turning cold.
16th-19th Very unsettled for most sections. Wet flurries for New Mexico.
20th-23rd Drier, colder weather.
24th-27th Wet conditions, as showers spread rapidly east through the Southern Plains, followed by clearing and cold weather.
28th-31st Fair, then light snow Southern Rockies into Texas.

#24 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:26 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Now about winter, I've said it every year and I will say it again this year, "IF" it's cold enought for pants and heavy jackets on Halloween night here, then winter (Dec-Feb) will be average to colder than average in NTX. "IF" it's wet, and cold on Halloween, then we will have better than average chances for snow/Ice thru the winter months.

Last year was shorts weather for Halloween, Hot and sticky. I think it was in the lower 80's and we saw what winter was like in NTX last year. :

Where were you during the first week of March 2008?

At home in Kennedale, TX enjoying the cool and mild weather.

The first 9 days of March 08

STATION: DALLAS FORT WORTH...D/FW Airport
MONTH: MARCH
YEAR: 2008
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W

Day/High/Low/Avg/depart from normal
1.. 80.. 49.. 65.. 12
2.. 74.. 63.. 69.. 15
3.. 71.. 34.. 53.. -1
4.. 60.. 35.. 48.. -6
5.. 68.. 45.. 57.. 3
6.. 50.. 34.. 42.. -13
7.. 53.. 33.. 43.. -12
8.. 54.. 25.. 40.. -15
9.. 74.. 39.. 57.. 1

Only the 8th was anything I would call cold, and the last freeze of the winter season.

#25 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:20 pm

"North Texas Halloween analog"

Here are 4 Halloweens and their following winter +/- snow fall. I didn't include amounts but the 2 winters that saw snow fall equaled about 5.5" total for each winter.

October 31st 2002.. H/52 L/46 Avg/49
Dec 02.. AV.. H/57.5.. L/37.9.. 1.0 above normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 1
Jan 03.. AV.. H/54.4.. L/33.0.. -0.4 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 1
Feb 03.. AV.. H/54.6.. L/36.6.. -3.4 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 3

October 31, 2003.. H/87.. L/72.. Avg/80
Dec 03.. AV.. H/61.1.. L/38.2.. 3.4 above normal, No snow
Jan 04.. AV.. H/58.5.. L/38.5.. 4.4 above normal, No snow
Feb 04.. AV.. H/54.6.. L/37.0.. -3.6 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 2

October 31, 2004.. H/84.. L/62.. Avg/73
Dec 04.. AV.. H/60.0.. L/37.7.. 2.2 above normal, No snow
Jan 05.. AV.. H/59.5.. L/39.6.. 5.4 above normal, No snow
Feb 05.. AV.. H/61.5.. L/43.6.. 3.2 above normal, No snow

October 31, 2006.. H/70.. L/45.. Avg/58
Dec 06.. AV.. H/60.0.. L/40.0.. 3.2 above normal, No snow
Jan 07.. AV.. H/50.4.. L/34.1.. -1.8 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 2
Feb 07.. AV.. H/60.4.. L/38.3.. -1.0 below normal, # of days w/recorded snow fall 3

Ed Mahmoud · #26 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:25 pm

JB just posted- analogs between active Gulf seasons and cold Decembers...

#27 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:03 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Now about winter, I've said it every year and I will say it again this year, "IF" it's cold enought for pants and heavy jackets on Halloween night here, then winter (Dec-Feb) will be average to colder than average in NTX. "IF" it's wet, and cold on Halloween, then we will have better than average chances for snow/Ice thru the winter months.

Last year was shorts weather for Halloween, Hot and sticky. I think it was in the lower 80's and we saw what winter was like in NTX last year. :

Where were you during the first week of March 2008?

At home in Kennedale, TX enjoying the cool and mild weather.

The first 9 days of March 08

STATION: DALLAS FORT WORTH...D/FW Airport
MONTH: MARCH
YEAR: 2008
LATITUDE: 32 54 N
LONGITUDE: 97 2 W

Day/High/Low/Avg/depart from normal
1.. 80.. 49.. 65.. 12
2.. 74.. 63.. 69.. 15
3.. 71.. 34.. 53.. -1
4.. 60.. 35.. 48.. -6
5.. 68.. 45.. 57.. 3
6.. 50.. 34.. 42.. -13
7.. 53.. 33.. 43.. -12
8.. 54.. 25.. 40.. -15
9.. 74.. 39.. 57.. 1

Only the 8th was anything I would call cold, and the last freeze of the winter season.

Wow, I didn't realize 70 miles could make that much of a difference.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-080000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2008

...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITES

DFW AIRPORT 1.1
DALLAS LOVE FIELD T
FORT WORTH NWS 1.0
FORT WORTH ALLIANCE 6.0
WACO 1.1

OTHER REPORTS

LAKE KIOWA (COOKE) 9.0
SHERMAN (GRAYSON) 9.0

CELINA (COLLIN) 8.0
COLLINSVILLE (GRAYSON) 8.0
GAINESVILLE 5ENE (COOKE) 8.0
WHITESBORO (GRAYSON) 8.0

DENTON (DENTON) 7.0
SAVOY (FANNIN) 7.0

BRECKENRIDGE (STEPHENS) 6.0
DECATUR (WISE) 6.0
POTTSBORO (GRAYSON) 6.0

GRAHAM (YOUNG) 5.0

HASLET (TARRANT) 4.8
KELLER (TARRANT) 4.8
3SSE ALLIANCE (TARRANT) 4.0
MINERAL WELLS (PALO PINTO) 4.0
MUENSTER (COOKE) 4.0
PERRIN (JACK) 4.0

BONHAM (FANNIN) 3.0
BOWIE (MONTAGUE) 3.0
EASTLAND (EASTLAND) 3.0
OLNEY (YOUNG) 3.0
WEATHERFORD (PARKER) 3.0

JACKSBORO (JACK) 2.0
MCKINNEY (COLLIN) 2.0
HILLSBORO (HILL) 2.0
FRISCO (COLLIN) 2.0
THORNTON 1SSE (LIMESTONE) 2.0

N RICHLAND HILLS (TARRANT) 1.5
TEMPLE (BELL) 1.5
PALESTINE (ANDERSON) 1.5

PARIS (LAMAR) 1.0
BELTON (BELL) 1.0
RED OAK (ELLIS) 1.0
CENTERVILLE (LEON) 1.0
FRANKSTON (ANDERSON) 1.0
FARMERSVILLE (COLLIN) 1.0

$$

25/91

And that was the latter of two snowfalls in Sherman that week. So I'm afraid I can't put much stock in that warm Halloween theory....

#28 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 12:21 pm

Two things here, 1.) is that the winter season consist of Dec-Feb, which is what my analog is based on. 2.) storm track is everything, and if you not in the path, then tuff luck....lol

One thing to look at, On March 3rd 1.0" of snow was recorded at D/FW airport, the recorded High that day was 71. Seeing snow don't make the winter cold, temps do.

March 08 ended up with an AV.. H/72.8.... L/49.1... DPTR FM NORMAL: +3.5

So if you want to include March as well, my analoge is still correct, a warm Halloween 07 = Dec-Mar warmer than avarge monthly temps. :ggreen:

check this month out Feb 1996 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/CLIMO/dfw/lcd/dfwfeb96.html after starting the month out with 4 straight days below freezing (including a low of 8 degrees) look at the 21 & 22. I did AC work back then and remember installing a outside unit because of the HOT weather. Also you can see a trace of snow was measured twice that month as well.

#29 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:50 am

I've read blog postings or notes from several meteorologists who specialize in longer-range forecasts who believe December will be a very cold month (against the averages) for the Plains/Midwest into the East. That could mean the same for us in the southern Plains, depending of course on the location and intensity of the Pacific/Arctic jet streams.

Kind of gets me excited to think about those winter possibilities ... and a nice change of pace from all-things-Ike. :lol:

Ptarmigan · #30 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:25 am

If history has any telling, the winter following a hurricane making landfall tends to be colder for SE Texas.

Using snowfall records in Houston going back to 1895.
http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

Hurricane Landfalls in SE Texas and SW Louisiana
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/hurr_clim.htm

Here is what I see.

December of 1929 had 2.5 inches of snow, in which a hurricane made landfall on June 28, 1929.
February of 1958 had a trace of snow, the previous year, Hurricane Audrey made landfall on June 27, 1957.
December of 1961 had a trace of snow, Hurricane Carla made landfall on September 11, 1961.
February of 1964 had a trace of snow, Hurricane Cindy made landfall on September 17, 1963.
January and February of 1981 had trace of snow, Hurricane Allen on August 9, 1980 and Tropical Storm Danielle on September 5, 1980 made landfall.
December of 1983 had a strong Arctic blast, Hurricane Alicia made landfall on August 18, 1983.
December of 1989 had a strong Arctic blast coupled with snow. Tropical Storm Allison made landfall on June 26, 1989, Hurricane Chantal made landfall on August 1, 1989, and Hurricane Jerry made landfall on October 16, 1989.
December of 2004 had snowfall on Christmas. Tropical Storm Ivan made landfall on September 23, 2004.

What does the winter of 2008-2009 hold. It could be a cold one. An interesting note, the latest tropical system to make landfall on the Upper Texas Coast is October 17, 1938. It was a tropical storm.

Extremeweatherguy · #31 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Sep 21, 2008 5:36 pm

My prediction for this winter is that we will see all of the following events take place...

A repeat of the 1977 snow in Central Florida:
http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/photos/pics_06/0627.jpg

A repeat of this kind of radar image out of Houston:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3197/259 ... 49.jpg?v=0
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3021/259 ... 19.jpg?v=0
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3045/259 ... 16.jpg?v=0
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3064/259 ... 19.jpg?v=0

A repeat of the 1989 snow in Jacksonville, FL:
http://images.ibsys.com/2003/1204/2683431_200X150.jpg

Frequent snow cover maps that look like these ones:
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... s1129a.gif
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... fs406b.gif
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... e1029c.gif
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/p ... am117a.gif

Frequent weather maps that are similar to what we saw Jan. 17-20, 1977:
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/g ... wxmaps.jpg

A snowfall of this magnitude in Oklahoma City:
http://turkish.wunderground.com/data/wx ... ulz/32.jpg

If my crazy prediction can manage to be proven true by some kind of amazing miracle, then I'm pretty sure that most of us southern snow-lovers would be satisfied for many, many years to come. :wink:

Extremeweatherguy · #32 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Oct 03, 2008 11:46 pm

Tonight's run of the 00z GFS continues to indicate that the southern plains may be in for their first significant chill of the season in about 7-9 days...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

In fact, this model run even indicates some light snows reaching well south into Nebraska, Kansas and perhaps even far north Oklahoma on the back side of this frontal passage. Could definitely be an interesting mid-October event if it plays out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif

#33 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 6:43 am

Way to go EWG! I

I'm counting on you this winter to be the first to sound the warning bells when there are hints/signs of major cold air outbreaks into the Southern Plains. You're on our northern flank now, so we Texans will be counting on you for the early warnings!

Seeing a lot of sentiment online from pro mets that December is going to be one to remember for us. And it is nice to see that trough in the West. Here's hoping it breaks up the pattern enough to give us some rain!

Extremeweatherguy · #34 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:58 am

Portastorm wrote:Way to go EWG! I

I'm counting on you this winter to be the first to sound the warning bells when there are hints/signs of major cold air outbreaks into the Southern Plains. You're on our northern flank now, so we Texans will be counting on you for the early warnings!

Seeing a lot of sentiment online from pro mets that December is going to be one to remember for us. And it is nice to see that trough in the West. Here's hoping it breaks up the pattern enough to give us some rain!

lol. I'll do my best. Just don't plan on counting on me during late December or early January. I will be heading back to FL for the holidays and then traveling south to the Caribbean for the first week of the new year.

Other than during those times though, I will definitely try to do my best at letting you know what is happening just to your north this winter season. If it is snowing here or if it is 0˚, then you Texans will be the first to hear about it. :wink:

Ed Mahmoud · #35 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 10:07 am

I don't know whether to envy or feel sorry for EWG.

On the one hand, Tornado Central USA. Good for the excitement, bad if one actually wrecks the neighborhood. Hurricane Ike has got me to thinking, I'm liking hurricane season more now that it is October and a Texas hit is extremely unlikely, and I can look at the fascinating weather of the tropics with low risk of almost a week in a dark and unairconditioned house.

And, since winter precip is almost a given in any given year in OKC, does it lose it 'special factor'?

Speaking of dark and un-airconditioned, a major ice storm, the most probable SETX major winter event, could easily mean dark, since most powerlines are above ground. But the food in the fridge would go bad much slower, and if the ice persists, food can be stored outside, and once one is wearing just boxers and sweating on top of the sheets in bed, one can't do more about a non AC house, but one can always pile on more blankets and wear sweaters and sweats in a cool house.

But, I missed the Monday Night Cowboys-Eagles, and USC-OSU game, and sports on TV only gets better from here through early February. if I could order up winter weather, enough to cancel work and school, (so I could play with my kids) and be well forecasted enough poor shmucks aren't wrecking all over the Beltway 8 on-ramps and Pierce Elevated trying to get to work, but less than about the approx. 1/2 to 1 inch ice accumulation that starts bringing tree limbs down on powerlines.

Extremeweatherguy · #36 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 11:46 am

Today's 12z GFS is not quite as chilly as the 0z run was, but it still shows a pretty nice cooldown coming to the southern plains next weekend...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

Behind the front, the model shows low temperatures getting down to 40-41F in Oklahoma City, 41-42F in Dallas/Fort Worth, and 48-49F in Houston. These would be the coolest temperatures experienced in each location so far this autumn.

Extremeweatherguy · #37 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:52 pm

The 18z GFS..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif

Colder than the 12z.

#38 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 7:35 pm

Just saw this for the first time. Looks very interesting. Not sure if it will be cold enough for snow (certainly not to stick). Could be some freezing rain as well.

Extremeweatherguy · #39 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 04, 2008 11:50 pm

Extremeweatherguy · #40 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Oct 05, 2008 12:03 pm

Too early to think about next fall/winter?

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