ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Blown Away]

TAFB 48 Hour:


TAFB 72 Hour:


Very Interesting!

[Dean4Storms]

This system needs another 24 hrs IMO if the convection continues to grow over the LLC and the shear continues letting up.

[Weatherfreak000]

Lol....wonder if Wxman is so confident to spit his "No Storm" lines tonight? lol. It reeks of desperation frankly of course in his shoes I completely understand.


Jokes aside... no one can deny 93L has outlasted all expectations thus far....i'd say that 50% is looking pretty good...also considering model support.

As far as landfall...i'll say one thing...im scared of ridges this year.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 202343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

No storms for a week! You hear that 93L? At least it looks like it's heading to the north and out to sea. Won't have to man the desk 24/7 with teams of forecasters for a fish (once it's north of Caribbean). Everyone's trying to get a rest and most of my team are still without power (some have no water) at home.

I was hunting for a better generator this afternoon. Can't find one in Houston. My current one only runs 2 hrs on a tank. Hard to sleep if I have to get up every 2 hours to fill the 1 gal tank. I can look out my window and see power 3 houses away but we may be days from getting the one stupid pole in our neighborhood replaced so that we can get power.

[jlauderdal]

Lol....wonder if Wxman is so confident to spit his "No Storm" lines tonight? lol. It reeks of desperation frankly of course in his shoes I completely understand.


Jokes aside... no one can deny 93L has outlasted all expectations thus far....i'd say that 50% is looking pretty good...also considering model support.

As far as landfall...i'll say one thing...im scared of ridges this year.

its behaved per nhc guidance from two days ago when they said slow development as winds become more favorable and that is exactly what has happened

i concur about the ridging, lets keep it away

[HURAKAN]

Convection not impressive at the moment.

[cycloneye]

A Flash Flood watch has been issued for all of Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin islands.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
739 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-211145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0010.080921T0000Z-080922T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
739 PM AST SAT SEP 20 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND FOR ALL
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO LATER TONIGHT AND THE REST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCAL SOILS REMAIN NEAR SATURATION FROM RECENT RAINS
AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV

[Derek Ortt]

no storms this week. Having a family emergency and am out of town!

besides, we already had a good season

[HurricaneFreak]

lhj

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection not impressive at the moment.

Says you?

I see convection finally developing near the center. Without debate this is the best convective wise 93L has ever looked...and it appears to be improving.

[HURAKAN]

Weatherfreak000, yes, convection is developing but it's not looking great at the moment, which is my point.

[HURAKAN]

20/2345 UTC 15.9N 66.5W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best Track update:

AL, 93, 2008092100, , BEST, 0, 161N, 663W, 25, 1009, LO

[Weatherfreak000]

Weatherfreak000, yes, convection is developing but it's not looking great at the moment, which is my point.

No question HURAKAN no question! However if the convection was still as far aware from the center as it was at this time yesterday I doubt anyone would be this concerned.


As far as convective intensity..you know the drill....DMAX and DMIN...

[HURAKAN]

As far as convective intensity..you know the drill....DMAX and DMIN...

Exactly, that's what I said on page 11.

If convection increases during the DMAX near or over the LLC, we could have RECON action tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Humid!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1009
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N66W. A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS COVERING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
58W-66W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Blown Away]

The shear is really beginning to relax compared to earlier. IMO, 93L is on it's way to a TD within next 36 hours, the deep bursts of convection around the LLC are definitely persisting now. I predict code "Red" at 2am.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html