ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH ITS
STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH. A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...WHICH
COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Weatherfreak000]

93L looks to me like a Tropical Depression is forming...should form by tonight. The latest Infrared loop is impressive. Visible satellite definitely shows evidence of a circulation...expect that to tighten up with heavy convection over it.

[Evil Jeremy]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH ITS
STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH. A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...WHICH
COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I have NEVER read a TWO such as this one. It seems that even if a system is not officially a TS, the NHC will call it one for people's saftey. They have done it in the past, but this is the first time that I have read that they would issue a special advisory to issue watches and warnings in a TWO.

[Thunder44]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH ITS
STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH. A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...WHICH
COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

I have NEVER read a TWO such as this one. It seems that even if a system is not officially a TS, the NHC will call it one for people's saftey. They have done it in the past, but this is the first time that I have read that they would issue a special advisory to issue watches and warnings in a TWO.

They said they would issue a special advisory, if necessary. If the plane doesn't find a TD, I would expect one to come out this afternoon.

[poof121]

44 kts SFMR, and west winds... do we have a TD?

[jlauderdal]

44 kts SFMR, and west winds... do we have a TD?

closed center required for td, high winds dont mean jack when classifying a system, recon will do their investigation and try very hard to close it off but if its not closed it isnt a td

[caribepr]

[/quote]

I have NEVER read a TWO such as this one. It seems that even if a system is not officially a TS, the NHC will call it one for people's saftey. They have done it in the past, but this is the first time that I have read that they would issue a special advisory to issue watches and warnings in a TWO.[/quote]

Many of the islands are already saturated with water. There has been a death from a stone retaining wall falling (so much for retaining) and killing a woman in her car on St. Vincent, and I won't be surprised to hear of more landslides.Flash flood warnings have been up for days.
There is a fragility in the islands that is very real and makes intense weather very dangerous, without the possibility of evacuation.
I don't (and this is a personal opinion) think we need to have an absolutely defined TD or TS to have watches and warnings put out, due to the above, maybe particularly when they see the strong potential of immediate development, but I am also ignorant of exactly how the NHC governs those decisions. I'm just glad they do as they do. We're pretty pro-active in these parts, because we are very aware of how little it takes for destruction to occur.

[cycloneye]

Kyle numbers?

37 kts FL 45 kts SFMR

Only they have to find it closed.

[jlauderdal]

we have the benefit of 57's handy surface analysis he does by hand(look a few posts back) the devil is in the details, forget IR and visible, look at his maps and recon folks, i dont care if it looks like typhoon tip, if its not at the surface its not classified..afm also does some really beneficial surface analysis

this stuff they do blows away anything you will get anywhere else

[caribepr]

Luis, our local guy is registering 30.9 mph gusts on his hilltop weather station (Culebra Wunderground reading) and it's picking up.

[HurricaneFreak]

Looks more like a tropical storm to ME!How in the world fdo u guys think its not a depression or ts yet!on the nhc they said in st.lucia a 40mph wind was reported and thats a ts speed...

[HURAKAN]

Looks more like a tropical storm to ME!How in the world fdo u guys think its not a depression or ts yet!on the nhc they said in st.lucia a 40mph wind was reported and thats a ts speed...

If there is no LLC, there is no TS!

[Brent]

Looks more like a tropical storm to ME!How in the world fdo u guys think its not a depression or ts yet!on the nhc they said in st.lucia a 40mph wind was reported and thats a ts speed...

If there is no LLC, there is no TS!

Yep, we went through this with Dolly and Fay and Gustav.

[HurricaneFreak]

okay IF THERE IS NO LLC AND NO A TS THEN WHAT IS IT IF IT HAS 40MPH WINDS ALAREADY.....OH YEA EVERYONE ITS JUST SOME STORM IN THE CARRIBEAN THAT HAS 40MPH WINDS ITS NOTHING.its just gona be a fish storm.

[ColdFusion]

okay IF THERE IS NO LLC AND NO A TS THEN WHAT IS IT IF IT HAS 40MPH WINDS ALAREADY

Disturbed weather. Strong thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

Looks more like a tropical storm to ME!How in the world fdo u guys think its not a depression or ts yet!on the nhc they said in st.lucia a 40mph wind was reported and thats a ts speed...

If there is no LLC, there is no TS!

Yep, we went through this with Dolly and Fay and Gustav.

Brent.yesterday you were not impressed,what about today?

[Squarethecircle]

okay IF THERE IS NO LLC AND NO A TS THEN WHAT IS IT IF IT HAS 40MPH WINDS ALAREADY

A wave with TS-equivalent winds, which is itself pretty dangerous and not something to be messed with.

[CourierPR]

okay IF THERE IS NO LLC AND NO A TS THEN WHAT IS IT IF IT HAS 40MPH WINDS ALAREADY

A strong tropical wave

[cycloneye]

Ok lets calm down,he got the answer.Lets move on.

[CourierPR]

Ok lets calm down,he got the answer.Lets move on.

I was just answering his question. Why the needless warning?