ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, the original Kyle Rote played for the NY Football Giants.


Off to check Google for you...

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, the original Kyle Rote played for the NY Football Giants.


Off to check Google for you...

[HURAKAN]

Fellow members, the purpose of this thread is to discuss the predictions of the computer models on 93L. Any other discussion has to be outside this thread.

[HurricaneFreak]

Fellows I wouldn't take these first computer models because they have not considered it a depression yet.And when it does become a depression or tropical storm the computer models always change like with Ike it had it pointing towards Florida but then south of Florida so Florida is not out of the clear yet.

[jlauderdal]

Fellows I wouldn't take these first computer models because they have not considered it a depression yet.And when it does become a depression or tropical storm the computer models always change like with Ike it had it pointing towards Florida but then south of Florida so Florida is not out of the clear yet.

well based on the trough that is forecast by all globals, florida is in a very good position to be safe again

[Grease Monkey]

Fellows I wouldn't take these first computer models because they have not considered it a depression yet.And when it does become a depression or tropical storm the computer models always change like with Ike it had it pointing towards Florida but then south of Florida so Florida is not out of the clear yet.

well based on the trough that is forecast by all globals, florida is in a very good position to be safe again

And we know how quickly that can change...

[jlauderdal]

Fellows I wouldn't take these first computer models because they have not considered it a depression yet.And when it does become a depression or tropical storm the computer models always change like with Ike it had it pointing towards Florida but then south of Florida so Florida is not out of the clear yet.

well based on the trough that is forecast by all globals, florida is in a very good position to be safe again

And we know how quickly that can change...

the models can change but I dont think this trough prediction will, too much agreement

[lbvbl]

Although the model consesus has shifted generally East, the west turn seems to be more pronounced, with landfall in the carolinas rather than in the NE or out to sea

[jlauderdal]

this is looking like a deep low for our friends in the central and ne atlantic coast if it ever makes landfall

[DarleneCane]

Planes are in now right? Or will be so we should know soon what really is there. Hard to say which is the center or where it is but am not relying on models without a designated center. Early model runs are often useless.

[jlauderdal]

Planes are in now right? Or will be so we should know soon what really is there. Hard to say which is the center or where it is but am not relying on models without a designated center. Early model runs are often useless.

unlike some of our past storms this is looking fairly straightforward as far as the models go, globals want to deepen a low off the SE CONUS and ride it to the North NNE NNW, take your pick, significant troughing to the west will keep it away from florida with possible landfall at least 500 miles to the north and probably farther, if it ever makes landfall and im going with no landfall at this time

[HURAKAN]

536
WHXX01 KWBC 211840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SUN SEP 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080921 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080921 1800 080922 0600 080922 1800 080923 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 66.5W 18.7N 67.6W 19.6N 68.6W 20.1N 69.7W
BAMD 17.8N 66.5W 18.6N 67.0W 19.1N 67.4W 19.7N 67.9W
BAMM 17.8N 66.5W 18.6N 67.4W 19.3N 68.2W 19.8N 69.0W
LBAR 17.8N 66.5W 18.4N 67.1W 19.0N 68.0W 19.3N 69.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080923 1800 080924 1800 080925 1800 080926 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 70.3W 22.7N 70.8W 25.3N 69.9W 28.9N 68.2W
BAMD 20.7N 68.4W 23.5N 68.5W 27.6N 68.1W 32.5N 68.2W
BAMM 20.6N 69.5W 22.6N 69.6W 25.7N 68.8W 29.8N 67.5W
LBAR 19.5N 70.1W 20.4N 72.3W 22.0N 74.2W 23.7N 75.2W
SHIP 64KTS 75KTS 79KTS 85KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 74KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 66.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[El Nino]

Wow, more than 80 kts in 5 days !

[jinftl]

What's up with the LBAR run.....23.7N and 75.2W is not a postion we like to see from SFL

536
WHXX01 KWBC 211840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SUN SEP 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080921 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080921 1800 080922 0600 080922 1800 080923 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 66.5W 18.7N 67.6W 19.6N 68.6W 20.1N 69.7W
BAMD 17.8N 66.5W 18.6N 67.0W 19.1N 67.4W 19.7N 67.9W
BAMM 17.8N 66.5W 18.6N 67.4W 19.3N 68.2W 19.8N 69.0W
LBAR 17.8N 66.5W 18.4N 67.1W 19.0N 68.0W 19.3N 69.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080923 1800 080924 1800 080925 1800 080926 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 70.3W 22.7N 70.8W 25.3N 69.9W 28.9N 68.2W
BAMD 20.7N 68.4W 23.5N 68.5W 27.6N 68.1W 32.5N 68.2W
BAMM 20.6N 69.5W 22.6N 69.6W 25.7N 68.8W 29.8N 67.5W
LBAR 19.5N 70.1W 20.4N 72.3W 22.0N 74.2W 23.7N 75.2W
SHIP 64KTS 75KTS 79KTS 85KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 74KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 66.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Brent]

I wouldn't take the LBAR seriously...

[hcane27]

[jinftl]

Given climatology and the track guidance...Bermuda seems to be a more realistic risk at this point for whatever 93L may become.

I would be curious to know how many storms have made it to 30N before hitting 70W....while still east of 70W....and have gone on to make landfall on the U.S. east coast....

[TYNI]

Given climatology and the track guidance...Bermuda seems to be a more realistic risk at this point for whatever 93L may become.

I would be curious to know how many storms have made it to 30N before hitting 70W....while still east of 70W....and have gone on to make landfall on the U.S. east coast....

2002 - Kyle - then a TS after fading from H1 status - was at 30.2 N/69.8 W, went on to landfall in the Charleston area, then skipped along the coast.

[jinftl]

That's what you call a weired coincidence with the name!!! Kyle v.2002 made it past the 30N/70W (heading to u.s. once hitting 30N while east of 70W) point by the skin of his teeth and then went on to effect the U.S. east coast.....going to do a bit of digging, but thinking he was the exception, not the rule....but the name coincidence is interesting!!!

Given climatology and the track guidance...Bermuda seems to be a more realistic risk at this point for whatever 93L may become.

I would be curious to know how many storms have made it to 30N before hitting 70W....while still east of 70W....and have gone on to make landfall on the U.S. east coast....

2002 - Kyle - then a TS after fading from H1 status - was at 30.2 N/69.8 W, went on to landfall in the Charleston area, then skipped along the coast.

[TYNI]

That's what you call a weired coincidence with the name!!! Kyle v.2002 made it past the 30N/70W (heading to u.s. once hitting 30N while east of 70W) point by the skin of his teeth and then went on to effect the U.S. east coast.....going to do a bit of digging, but thinking he was the exception, not the rule....but the name coincidence is interesting!!!

Kinda gave me an eerie feeling when I was searching. BTW, I only searched until I found this instance. I'll keep checking back a few more years. IIRC, I also saw one that met the criteria, but didn't make landfall in the US, but did in Nova Scotia.