ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[ColdFusion]

This storm is a Tropical Depression...Recon has been confirming winds...and even on the slim chance they don't find the LLC evidence...we're talking about only a matter of time before this does.

Let's just start advisories already i'd say...not like they dont do that sort of thing anyway ask the GOM

No TD, no TS today. Very disorganized low-level wind field. Can't just name a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms a TD. You'll have to wait until Monday.

I know Wxman, I was being sarcastic. Just taking a stab at the classifications you would be in the GOM.

Is there really any FACTUAL evidence that the NHC has classified things in the GOM as TD's without a circulation. Or that warnings or watches were posted without classification. I highly doubt it.

[cycloneye]

I dont think this being a TD or even a minimal TS would change the fact that plenty of rain will continue to fall in the islands causing mudslides and flash floods and that is the BIG THREAT So regardless what this system is,that is what we are dealing now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Lotta rain.

[bvigal]

I dont think this being a TD or even a minimal TS would change the fact that plenty of rain will continue to fall in the islands causing mudslides and flash floods and that is the BIG THREAT So regardless what this system is,that is what we are dealing now.

That's right, Luis! This system has already killed. Let's hope there are no more deaths, and that everybody pays attention to the fact that TD conditions are possible, even when a TD hasn't yet formed. The new STDS makes it clear.

[El Nino]

Definitely outflow !

[jinftl]

If the closest thing to a center was found in the middle of all that convection....well SE of where it actually is, this would be much more impressive as an organized tropical system...and probably a td by now. Lacks symmetry if broad center is over central or western PR....but no doubt convection is dumping rain.


SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

Definitely outflow !

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

quote="Weatherfreak000"]This storm is a Tropical Depression...Recon has been confirming winds...and even on the slim chance they don't find the LLC evidence...we're talking about only a matter of time before this does.

Let's just start advisories already i'd say...not like they dont do that sort of thing anyway ask the GOM [/quote]

No TD, no TS today. Very disorganized low-level wind field. Can't just name a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms a TD. You'll have to wait until Monday.[/quote]

I know Wxman, I was being sarcastic. Just taking a stab at the classifications you would be in the GOM.[/quote]

Is there really any FACTUAL evidence that the NHC has classified things in the GOM as TD's without a circulation. Or that warnings or watches were posted without classification. I highly doubt it.[/quote]


They where closed, but very weak and disorganized LLC's. I've looked back into the 1990s records to be able to say this. Open Atlantic systems almost need a LLC of a tropical storm to be upgraded...THAT IS my option.

Who's to say that this does not have a "closed" LLC; it has a eastly wind to the north and west to the south. It is elongated west to east more or less...It won't take much to develop a north and southly winds, maybe tomarrow. It is not all clean cut.

[MiamiensisWx]

Can anyone post a link to the most recent sounding (SKEW-T) from SJU (San Juan), Puerto Rico? I want to assess the thermodynamic environment, as the slow movement, orographic liftingl, and steepening lapse rates overnight could lead to copious precipitation along the elevated terrain of Puerto Rico, in addition to other portions and the Leeward Islands. The good ascent is problematic as well. I think the arguments in regards to the classification are futile... evidence does not conclusively support a TD at this time, but it does not alter the facts for the islands. Isolated TS gusts will likely occur as well.

Stay safe...

[HURAKAN]

Have we seen this before?



Yes!



P.S: The intention is to compare 93L appearance to Jeanne, not future track.

[HURAKAN]

Can anyone post a link to the most recent sounding (SKEW-T) from SJU (San Juan), Puerto Rico?

Stay safe...

Link: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

[jinftl]

Not similar in strength either....important to note that as well. Jeanne was a strengthening TS on its way to becoming a hurricane in the Mona Passage.

From NHC report on Jeanne....
The cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm on 14 September while it moved slowly over the Leeward Islands. Continuing west-northwestward, its circulation moved slowly over the Virgin Islands and the center moved inland over southeastern Puerto Rico on 15 September when maximum sustained surface winds reached 60 kt.

Have we seen this before?



Yes!



P.S: The intention is to compare 93L appearance to Jeanne, not future track.

[HURAKAN]

Heavy precipitation over PR.

[cycloneye]

[HUC]

TD,TS ?OR SOMETHING ELSE...everyone stay safe and protect yourself from all the treaths of this system! Luis,i think you rememeber the "Mamele tragedia" if i remember well the name: only a Tropical wave,and more than 500 dead in P/Rico...I'am correct??

[gatorcane]

In 72 hours TAFB barely moves this thing..just a slow NW or NNW drift.....

I'm not so sure we can say 93L is definitely heading Northbound....uncertaintly after 5 days can be large.

It would different if 93L was moving NNW or North at a good speed...then the recurve east of the CONUS would be more certain.

[cycloneye]

TD,TS ?OR SOMETHING ELSE...everyone stay safe and protect yourself from all the treaths of this system! Luis,i think you rememeber the "Mamele tragedia" if i remember well the name: only a Tropical wave,and more than 500 dead in P/Rico...I'am correct??

Yes that is correct,but the number of death was less.For those who dont know about what happened,on October 7th,1985,a strong tropical wave moved slowly over Puerto Rico causing massive flooding over much of the island.A mudslide in barrio Mameyes near Ponce,killed 85 people as all the mud went over the houses there.As you said,it doesnt matter what this system is,the main threat is the rain.

[Blown Away]

In 72 hours TAFB barely moves this thing..just a slow NW or NNW drift.....

I'm not so sure we can say 93L is definitely heading Northbound....uncertaintly after 5 days can be large.

It would different if 93L was moving NNW or North at a good speed...then the recurve east of the CONUS would be more certain.

The NCEP only has 93L N of Hispanola but still S of SFL's latitude in 96 hours. These positions are well west of the model runs, so who's right??

[HURAKAN]

Bad, bad pimple!

[bvigal]

Yes, I remember well when Jeanne came over here. We were under TS warning, and it rained quite a bit. I went to work for a client that day, because I remember wishing I was working from home and could capture sat pics!
Here are radar from Jeanne, 1st, followed by right now 93L: