Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic? New System

[littlevince]

Well, things are getting interesting.

[HURAKAN]

littlevince, I don't understand why the NHC is not paying any attention to this system. That's clearly a subtropical or tropical system. Extratropical systems are not like that.

[HURAKAN]

Look at Jerry last year:

[Weatherfreak000]

Cant be completely sure....but i'd argue looking at that the LLC seems exposed...maybe if the convection tucks under i'd say definitely STS.

[masaji79]

This system looks better than Jerry of last year. Seems like NHC has a habit of ignoring the NE Atlantic. There was the unnamed STS of 2005 and the one late last year that looked like an STS as well.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

18Z: Deepens to 1000 mb.

[HURAKAN]

V7ND9 - MARITIME-ship
Sunday Sep. 21 - 18:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 78°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Wind: WNW at 37 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb

[vegastar]

Some 30-35 kts barbs near the center on the western (sheared) side of the circulation. On the eastern side there are higher winds but they are rain contaminated.

The wind field is very large and broad but unlike extratropical cyclones the maximum winds are clearly near the center of circulation.

I think we may have a STD.

[vegastar]

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On the higher resolution quickscat there are some 40kts+ barbs on the eastern side of the COC, so I guess we could have a STS...

[Cainer]

I emailed the NHC about this; I hope they answer me before it dies off! I'll let you guys know if I get an answer from them. Anyway, in my opinion, this is a STS. It's sort of strange that the NHC haven't even mentioned it yet. They at least mentioned 95L last year, and it was in this general position, later in the year, AND looking worse. Go figure.

[HURAKAN]

Cainer & vegastar, thanks for your inputs. I also e-mailed the NHC a while back and I'm still waiting for their answer. They usually answer.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that this is a subtropical or tropical storm. I don't think the NHC puts too much energy in this region though. No mentions on any TWD's or TWO's. I'd initiate advisories on 40 kt STS Kyle here IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I agree that this is a subtropical or tropical storm. I don't think the NHC puts too much energy in this region though. No mentions on any TWD's or TWO's. I'd initiate advisories on 40 kt STS Kyle here IMO.

Agree this should be named NOW or in the postseason for sure!

[CrazyC83]

Post deleted due to large change required.

[Just Joshing You]

Be careful, I got warned about posting in all caps, even though I had the large disclaimer. May want to change to lower case.

[Ptarmigan]

Jeff Masters said it had a warm core. Looks better than Jerry from last year. It would not surprise me if this is really is at least a subtropical or tropical system which would be Kyle. I am surprised NHC does not pay much attention to the Eastern Atlantic because its where Europe is.

[RL3AO]

Might be a post season storm.

[HURAKAN]

Portugul's storm
An extratropical low pressure system off the coast of Portugal has gradually warmed its core over the past 2-3 days, as it has wandered over waters of 22-23°C. This storm has developed some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and has winds of 40 mph, according to this evening's QuikSCAT pass. However, in NHC's subjective judgment, it does not yet have enough tropical characteristics to be named subtropical storm Kyle. This system should make landfall in southern Portugal Monday afternoon, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 40 mph to the coast.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

[Chacor]

Again, remember that the NWS has no high seas control east of 33°W. They have to confer with the appropriate weather service (Meteo-France) before doing anything.

MF have this as a 1007 mbar low.

Part 2 : General synopsis, Sunday 21 at 12 UTC

Thundery low 1007 33N17W, moving east and filling, expected 1011
just near cape Sao Vicente by 23/00UTC.