ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

anyone looked at radar...?? i see the low level center wher nhc says it is.. but a small tight vigerous spin is due south of ponce!! look for yourselves.. this could be redeveloping under what appears to be a mid level circulation... not saying it will, could.... pretty vigerous little spin there


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think there are two areas of low pressure, one off the northeast tip of the DR and one just south of PR near Ponce

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see stronger echoes moving from the South, while lighter echoes in the same area moving from the West-Northwest. Or, probably a very poorly stacked system.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The one over DR is the closest to being a true LLC (check wind obs) and it looks to be trying to develp some convection BUT the synoptics look to be tee'd up for shear for as far out as I can see. If this thing pinballs around a developing high (not seen on GFS by the way) and the ULL's it could have a snowball's chance if you get my meaning If it does take off it will have to pull fast one or bide it's time past 36 hours or more. Just the opinion of the poster

[vbhoutex]

I only see the one in the Mona passage. It is very obvious. If there is another one I don't see it. I do see storms growing and then tops warming in the area you are talking about and even some of the curving I think you are seeing, but I don't think it is a low center at any level. I do see what I would consider outflow boundaries heading north from that area.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best track.

AL, 93, 2008092218, , BEST, 0, 187N, 688W, 30, 1009, DB,

[Cyclenall]

Hopefully it becomes a named storm (Kyle) tomorrow so my prediction is spot on (exact) in the "When is Kyle going to form" thread.

I think everyone will be very happy at this point if it just poofs out, for sure...

Not everyone, see above.

Steve,

Too early to say if it'll dissipate, however, the conditions are becoming less and less favorable as we get closer to October (more shear and troughs, but, less of a ridge than just two or three weeks ago) - per the chilly temps up north the past few days, it's looking like an early or seasonally "on-time" end to the hurricane season this year, thankfully...

There is a secondary peak in October so conditions becoming less and less favorable isn't a good way to put it. This is not an end to the hurricane season.

Even if 93L does form into something significant, the EC trough is certainly strong enough to keep it offshore, for sure (pardon the "sounds like" double entendre)...

For sure? More like unlikely. The models aren't favoring that solution.

[BensonTCwatcher]

18:00 UTC Best track.

AL, 93, 2008092218, , BEST, 0, 187N, 688W, 30, 1009, DB,

That's about where I see it maybe even a little bit east of there based on visibles and wind obs

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak almost coincides with best track.

22/1745 UTC 18.7N 68.6W OVERLAND 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 152115.GIF

The loop clearly shows the circulation.

[HURAKAN]

[caribepr]

Hopefully it becomes a named storm (Kyle) tomorrow so my prediction is spot on (exact) in the "When is Kyle going to form" thread.

I think everyone will be very happy at this point if it just poofs out, for sure...

Not everyone, see above.

Nice to be in Canada and hope it develops so you can have a spot on prediction...sheesh!

[HURAKAN]

There is the LLC and appears to be moving towards the coast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There may be a little surface spin on the Eastern tip of the DR, but looking at the satellite and radar, this is a disorganized mess, and being that the surface spin is moving overland, and the heaviest storms are sheared/displaced well to the East and Southeast, I'd say that isn't the center that becomes the real Kyle. IMHO.

[storm4u]

This is starting to make me a little nervous. Alot of the models are starting to show a northeast hit. I know that things can change and we dont even have a system really yet but I dont like the looks of this one! For now though for what could be a kyle in a couple of days doent look to good but it still has me on edge!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see 93L has a few storms popping near the surface center now, but that may be a result of upslope flow into the mountains. I think, unofficially, that center is stillborn, and 93L either never develops, or a new center forms well South, down between 16 and 17ºN, under the deepest thunderstorms.


Unofficially, in my humble and amateur opinion.

Only way DR center survives is if it quickly gets North of land. But shear increases to the North, so I am not at all sure it has a future.

[HurricaneFreak]

Yeah this is not going to be the last storm were getting cause we have 2 full months left and Wilma came in October.It appears this is moving NW instead of a NNW direction

[bvigal]

Hopefully it becomes a named storm (Kyle) tomorrow so my prediction is spot on (exact) in the "When is Kyle going to form" thread.

I think everyone will be very happy at this point if it just poofs out, for sure...

Not everyone, see above.

Nice to be in Canada and hope it develops so you can have a spot on prediction...sheesh!

My sentiment exactly! What's a bit stronger storm and a few more deaths matter, if one's ego can be stroked by 'being right'?

[Ed Mahmoud]

18ºN and 69ºW, about a 1008 mb center by recon, but I don't think this lasts. IMHO.



ETA:

I wish recon would wander South, down around 16º or 17º, to see if a new and improved center is trying to form...

[Sanibel]

Can't tell which is the real center. Mona Passage center has more deep convection. Headed right towards land. Mid center is definitely north of Hispaniola and headed W of NW.

Shear will prevent any strengthening.

Storm looks better and more active on visible.