ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Cyclenall]

Nice to be in Canada and hope it develops so you can have a spot on prediction...sheesh!

My sentiment exactly! What's a bit stronger storm and a few more deaths matter, if one's ego can be stroked by 'being right'?

I knew I would get these reactions even though I said nothing about Kyle affecting land. A LLC isn't going to make a big difference anyways in rainfall rate.

[gatorcane]

If the center indeed is reforming farther south near 16N...

I think implications to future track are large.

[Wx_Warrior]

gatorcane, you've been all over the place with this mess of a system.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane, you've been all over the place with this mess of a system.

its a tough system to predict. I keep waiting for the North movement but dont' see it (I imagine the NHC keeps waiting also). The latest TWO indicates Northwest now instead of North...

but the whole blob apperas to be headed W or WSW still with no sign of gaining lattitude. Every model is wrong so far on where it though this thing was headed (recall all had it going North or NNW)

It just shows to not look at the models with such an ill-defined system.

[HurricaneFreak]

gatorcane, you've been all over the place with this mess of a system.

its a tough system to predict. I keep waiting for the North movement but dont' see it (I imagine the NHC keeps waiting also). The latest TWO indicates Northwest now instead of North...

but the whole blob apperas to be headed W or WSW still with no sign of gaining lattitude. Every model is wrong so far on where it though this thing was headed (recall all had it going North or NNW)

It just shows to not look at the models with such an ill-defined system.

Finally someone says that. I agree 100% with gatorcane becaue its true that the models are not folllowing the invest.Is clearly moving NW or WNW and I dont see a N direction at all yet.So things could change with the models.

[jinftl]

The NHC lowered the chances of development for this system from 'red' to 'orange', so back under 50% chance in their minds. Development may be an afterthought, esp. if it steers clear of land, compared to the deluge that has been dumped on PR. Read that this is the biggest rain event since Georges in '98 on parts of the island!

[cycloneye]

000
WONT41 KNHC 222041
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[Sanibel]

The upper convection doesn't always tell the true position of the Low center in the surface spiral. I highly doubt there's any reformation south on this one. The depth you see down there is because of convergence along the wave axis.

When it clears Hispaniola it should reveal its structure better.

[bvigal]

"IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. " What do they mean by that, if "HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POORLY ORGANIZED"
what does it really mean? Defined in what way?

[HenkL]

Observations 21Z:

[MGC]

Still doubt anything forms in the short term....too much shear and land interaction....MGC

[hial2]

000
WONT41 KNHC 222041
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

Haiti and Turk and Caicos do not need this system...especially Haiti.

[greels]

000
WONT41 KNHC 222041
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT... AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

Haiti and Turk and Caicos do not need this system...especially Haiti.

You certainly have that one right.......Provo where we live is slowly on the mend, but over on Grand Turk where folks are struggling to survive...is another story all unto itself....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not going to form within the next 24-36 hours. Yet another system over DR/Hati. What is going on.

[AdamFirst]

Interesting they would issue a special statement if the storm is still in a hostile environment for development, no?

If the shear was lighter perhaps this would be something...for now, just a little eyesore

[captain east]

It just keeps moving W/WNW... And what's with the convective ball in the south and one in the norht is that two LLC's?

[jlauderdal]

Interesting they would issue a special statement if the storm is still in a hostile environment for development, no?

If the shear was lighter perhaps this would be something...for now, just a little eyesore

i think they have to deal with this system with the statements since there is alot of rain yet they cant classify it now

[Recurve]

It certainly looks impressive on visible and rainbow IR, not that it means anything for formation, but the shower activity is hardly letting up for the areas that have been affected so much this season. We all know a tropical system of any kind can be as bad as a major hurricane when it rains 20 inches in the same place.

May be a long time before --- if ever -- this system has a defined low-level center centered in the most active convection, where it can fire into a TC, but it could cause a lot of misery nonetheless.

Eager to hear more discussion on the large scale environment by the experienced posters here. No one from Maine to the Yucatan can turn their back on this and it may be a long wait before we are actually tracking a storm.

[fci]

gatorcane, you've been all over the place with this mess of a system.

its a tough system to predict. I keep waiting for the North movement but dont' see it (I imagine the NHC keeps waiting also). The latest TWO indicates Northwest now instead of North...

but the whole blob apperas to be headed W or WSW still with no sign of gaining lattitude. Every model is wrong so far on where it though this thing was headed (recall all had it going North or NNW)

It just shows to not look at the models with such an ill-defined system.

Gator:
If you are questioning models as it relates to where we live; South Florida; then it does not matter, as wxman has explained earlier; the trough and screaming upper winds from the West; will keep anything organized from heading this way.

I just feel for the folks in Haiti and The SE Bahamas who have just been pummelled and don't need a rain event to complicate their clean-up and add to their misery.
And the folks in PR who just need the rain to stop!!

[wxman57]

There is still no evidence of an LLC (surface circulation). The circulation the plane found was aloft. Surface obs indicate nothing near the DR. Let it go west all it wants, that'll just about assure it won't develop, as westerly winds across Florida & the Bahamas will be increasing significantly by Wednesday. However, I think it'll begin turning northward as the low develops on the east coast by Wednesday. That'll be its best shot of development. Lots of shear, though.