ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Recurve]

It just keeps moving W/WNW... And what's with the convective ball in the south and one in the norht is that two LLC's?

Convective blowups can be well removed from a low center or a diffuse area of lowest pressure, so a single blowup or two doesn't indicate anything about a center or centers, AFAIK.

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez....flip-flopping on development already? I guess I shouldnt be surprised


Wxman's point is somewhat invalid if the storm reforms under Puerto Rico in the Caribbean and never gets pushed up North. That would constitute a complete change in the forecast scenario. Definitely this isn't the most likely scenario...but if the center does reform. It can happen.

[RainWind]

It's pretty difficult to keep a close eye on it, I know that a lot of folks are hurricane season fatigued at best. Just can't watch for hours and hours. Maybe we will know more about this storm in 24 hours. And, like Frank2 said earlier, it may well just go poof (50/50 chance), and that would be just dandy with me! Praying for the islands! Rain, rain go away! RW

[wxman57]

Geez....flip-flopping on development already? I guess I shouldnt be surprised


Wxman's point is somewhat invalid if the storm reforms under Puerto Rico in the Caribbean and never gets pushed up North. That would constitute a complete change in the forecast scenario. Definitely this isn't the most likely scenario...but if the center does reform. It can happen.

You won't get it to Louisiana no matter how hard you try. Strong high over the NW Gulf with deep trof over the SE U.S. means NW-N flow all across the Gulf to Honduras. It's not coming into the Gulf.

[Weatherfreak000]

Geez....flip-flopping on development already? I guess I shouldnt be surprised


Wxman's point is somewhat invalid if the storm reforms under Puerto Rico in the Caribbean and never gets pushed up North. That would constitute a complete change in the forecast scenario. Definitely this isn't the most likely scenario...but if the center does reform. It can happen.

You won't get it to Louisiana no matter how hard you try. Strong high over the NW Gulf with deep trof over the SE U.S. means NW-N flow all across the Gulf to Honduras. It's not coming into the Gulf.

Lol! Your a good laugh Wxman. You say it as if by some will of force I a single human being have the power to will a storm in my general direction. Despite the fact I haven't once mentioned the storm coming to Louisiana...or..even the GOM.or even that I honestly believed the center would reform...if I recall.

I think it's good for us to move on. I just wanted a response on the record im not gonna tolerate you labeling anyone.

[jconsor]

Wxman57,

There is some evidence of a circulation if you look carefully at obs in the Dominican Republic. Winds have been N to NNW at Santo Domingo airport and NW at a personal weather near Santo Domingo: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IDISTRIT9. Sabana De La Mar in northeastern DR has been reporting NE winds past few hours, and Punta Cana in extreme southeast DR has seen SE winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

SFMR indicated SSW winds about 25 miles south of southeastern DR:

Observation Time: Monday, 19:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.0N 69.0W (View map)
Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 200° at 15 knots (From the SSW at ~ 17.2 mph)

The circulation may not be fully closed, but it is very close.

[HURAKAN]

Heavy precipitation over eastern Hispaniola.

[El Nino]

The fact that RECON will be sent tomorrow is a sign that NHC suspect it could be a TD at any time or something like that. Land interaction and other factors seems to be a problem for the moment, but once it will leave Hispanola, it could rapidly organize. And MAYBE it could organize over land too. But I don't think they would send 3 flights for nothing or something poorly organised.

[HURAKAN]

Punta Cana Radar:

[Lowpressure]

A ton of twisting going on in the radar loop above, but still no clear cut LLC I can see. Several observed outflow boundries as well.

[Dean4Storms]

This is going to have to clear the DR and move northward for any chance of development IMO.

[captain east]

This is going to have to clear the DR and move northward for any chance of development IMO.

Looking in the future all I see is a really wierd FW setup where neither low becomes dominant and the forecasters go crazy.

[HURAKAN]

857
ABNT20 KNHC 222348
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. WHILE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[fci]

Geez....flip-flopping on development already? I guess I shouldnt be surprised


Wxman's point is somewhat invalid if the storm reforms under Puerto Rico in the Caribbean and never gets pushed up North. That would constitute a complete change in the forecast scenario. Definitely this isn't the most likely scenario...but if the center does reform. It can happen.

You won't get it to Louisiana no matter how hard you try. Strong high over the NW Gulf with deep trof over the SE U.S. means NW-N flow all across the Gulf to Honduras. It's not coming into the Gulf.

Lol! Your a good laugh Wxman. You say it as if by some will of force I a single human being have the power to will a storm in my general direction. Despite the fact I haven't once mentioned the storm coming to Louisiana...or..even the GOM.or even that I honestly believed the center would reform...if I recall.

I think it's good for us to move on. I just wanted a response on the record im not gonna tolerate you labeling anyone.

Weatherfreak:

I must have been mistaken too; as I took your comment about to indicate that wxman would be wrong and that the system would continue westward to the GOM. (I mean what other "complete change in the forecast scenario" might you be referring to??)

Plus being that you are in LA. and "many" poster's seem to find reasons to think a system is headed "their" way; it was a pretty natural assumption that you were wrangling a scenario that would find 93L headed towards you.

I guess we were both mistaken and I presume others were too.
You are one of the few who does not question a Pro Met's forecast when it has a system NOT headed towards you.

[Annie Oakley]

Wxman from Houston...I just got back from Houston last night.....from a DRC.....trying to not have a wreck at the intersections where the lights are still out....I hope you are using some of your leisure time helping fellow Houstonians (who I found very distressed, very grateful, and very stalwart).
Your latest statements on this board are really rather rude. Maybe some volunteer work will help you become at the very least tolerant, let alone polite, unassuming, and not so arrogant-sounding.

[Ivanhater]

Wxman from Houston...I just got back from Houston last night.....from a DRC.....trying to not have a wreck at the intersections where the lights are still out....I hope you are using some of your leisure time helping fellow Houstonians (who I found very distressed, very grateful, and very stalwart).
Your latest statements on this board are really rather rude. Maybe some volunteer work will help you become at the very least tolerant, let alone polite, unassuming, and not so arrogant-sounding.

Great post! I have always felt some posts have been rude and arrogant. I guess sitting behind the computer gives people the impression they can talk to people in a way they otherwise wouldnt face to face. As Im quite sure some would not talk to others the way they do on the computer in person or they wouldnt like the response

[cycloneye]

Best Track update at 00:00 UTC.

AL, 93, 2008092300, , BEST, 0, 189N, 691W, 30, 1008, DB

[Weatherfreak000]

As far as my post about a complete change in the forecast scenario...I was only referring to a passage through the Caribbean instead of the open Atlantic. I am quite aware that the huge trough in the atlantic is going to hook the storm right.

But assume the storm travels through the caribbean and hooks through S.Florida? I'd say that is a change. Of course this is all completely conjecture... the point i've made all season long since Gustav remains the same...you CAN deny a model consensus...in some situations...but your EYES can't be wrong. The model consensus is already wrong...the storm is inland...no model predicted that. But my eyes tell me a trough is present...and I trust my eyes.

[canetracker]

93L looks to be trying to hold on. It has lower level convergence, but wind shear to the north does not look great which is also evidenced by the shear tendancy. However, once it passes this area it should come into a more favorable environment. Hopefully it will curve out to sea and not cause any further damage than it already has.

[gatorcane]

93L Looks like a Fay Redux if you ask me.....and yet again Haiti and DR under the gun big time as 93L drifts West.