ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
Now that last picture 'looks' more like it. Not in a good way for Hispaniola unfortunately. We'll see what recond finds there.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
NWS Upton (NYC) AFD snippet
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL INTERESTS DURING THIS PERIOD FOCUS ON THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. GLOBAL
MODELS POSE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AS A STRENGTHENING WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US STEER THE
FEATURE NNW TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAYS 4 THROUGH 5 (FRI-
SAT). THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR
ORGANIZATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.
WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND A STRONG POLAR HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE MARINE
FORECAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF...COASTAL
FLOODING...BEACH EROSION...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR WIND AND RAIN CONTINUE FRI INTO SAT AS THE COASTAL
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND IF THERE ARE ANY
INTERACTIONS WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUN INTO MON.
TEMPS WARM A BIT WITH THE INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. DAYTIME HIGHS FRI
AND SAT WILL LIKELY BE HELD DOWN BY ANY RAIN...SUN COULD BE WARM
BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS TO START THE WEEK.
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Re:
To my untrained eye...it would almost seem like the center wants to reform at 17N and 69W.....goes to show why it is probably not wise to make intensity and center estimates for a developing system by satellite alone! Latest fix has center more than 2 deg north of that!
HURAKAN wrote:
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- HURAKAN
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068
ABNT20 KNHC 231140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
ABNT20 KNHC 231140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
It's back over water (or very close). We'll see if it can now get going and move on NORTH, skipping Haiti and Turks & Caicos, yes please!!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
This is the discussion from the San Juan NWS.I am posting it here as I think it says intertesting things about the future of this system.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST TUE SEP 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DROOP INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK A CUT OFF LOW NEAR 20 NORTH 58 WEST
WILL SPLIT THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
HISPANIOLA INTO TWO PARTS LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH DRAMATICALLY ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN FILL IN OVER THE ARC OF THE ANTILLES FORMING A NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST RIDGE FROM THE HIGH IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST DURING THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLE OVER CUBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT SO MUCH
MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO IN THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUE TOWARD MAINE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE AREA IN SOUTH FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WET MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO
RICO AS MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWS THE BAND AND SLOWLY SPREADS NORTH
INTO THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEPS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOWER
TODAY AS WELL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT WINDS AND
PRESSURE FIELDS FROM SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO CONFIRM A
LOCATION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW IN A ZIG ZAG PATH NORTHWARD FROM
ITS POSITION NEAR 19.1 NORTH 69.6 WEST. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND
FIRST MOVES THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TO 20.4 NORTH 72.8
WEST WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP THE LOW EQUALLY. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...IF ONLY BECAUSE THIS WAVE`S
HISTORY OF SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT FITS THE SOLUTION BETTER AND IT
THE LOW WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BUTT UP AGAINST LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OPPOSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. USING THIS EAST-HOLDING TRAJECTORY...WILL
KEEP THE LOCAL WATERS NEAREST THE LOW IN HIGHER WINDS...AND HAVE
READJUSTED THE GRIDS TO MAKE THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL
SHIP OBSERVATION NOTED AT 06Z. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN THE LOCAL NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND
WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PROMISING THIS TO NO AVAIL FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...THE MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH SEEMS TO GIVE NEW REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SHOULD IT INTENSIFY AS
EXPECTED...THE WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW TO DIE DOWN OVER THOSE
SAME WATERS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL BE PULLED OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS RATHER FOREBODING...IT SHOULD PROVE TO BE
MUCH LESS SERIOUS THAN THE BANDS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED SO FAR AND THIS RETREAT OF THE LOW SHOULD GIVE PUERTO
RICO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. BECAUSE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES DURING THIS CLEARING TREND...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THE NORTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE MORE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE FROM THE EAST INTO THE AREA AND STALL OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WE ENTER INTO SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE WEST SIDE SUBSIDENCE OF THAT LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
TODAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TJPS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJSJ FROM 10-16...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 16Z. TJBQ WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
10-18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AN
EXTENSION MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING IN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERWARD INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WILL CAUSE SLOWLY RISING SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. IN
THE CARIBBEAN A SIMILAR TREND WILL BE SEEN BUT TO A LESSER
DEGREE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ALL BUT TWO RIVERS...THE MAUNABO AND THE GUAYANES...HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AS OF 6 AM AST. THESE WILL LIKELY NOT
COME DOWN DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING THERE. THEREFORE
EXPECT TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING BEFORE 8 AM AST THIS
MORNING AND WARN ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
MOVES ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. UNLESS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLEARING TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THAT IS NOT
REALLY EXPECTED...THERE SHOULD BE LESS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THAN
THIS MORNING...BUT IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS OVER THE ISLAND WILL
HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL ALL
DANGER OF CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP HAS PASSED
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST TUE SEP 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DROOP INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK A CUT OFF LOW NEAR 20 NORTH 58 WEST
WILL SPLIT THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
HISPANIOLA INTO TWO PARTS LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH DRAMATICALLY ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN FILL IN OVER THE ARC OF THE ANTILLES FORMING A NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST RIDGE FROM THE HIGH IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS
PUERTO RICO. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST DURING THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLE OVER CUBA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT SO MUCH
MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO IN THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUE TOWARD MAINE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE AREA IN SOUTH FLOW UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE BAND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WET MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO
RICO AS MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWS THE BAND AND SLOWLY SPREADS NORTH
INTO THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEPS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOWER
TODAY AS WELL...BUT NOT AS LOW AS YESTERDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM SATELLITE PICTURES...BUT WINDS AND
PRESSURE FIELDS FROM SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO CONFIRM A
LOCATION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW IN A ZIG ZAG PATH NORTHWARD FROM
ITS POSITION NEAR 19.1 NORTH 69.6 WEST. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND
FIRST MOVES THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TO 20.4 NORTH 72.8
WEST WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS SEEM TO DEVELOP THE LOW EQUALLY. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...IF ONLY BECAUSE THIS WAVE`S
HISTORY OF SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT FITS THE SOLUTION BETTER AND IT
THE LOW WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BUTT UP AGAINST LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OPPOSING UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. USING THIS EAST-HOLDING TRAJECTORY...WILL
KEEP THE LOCAL WATERS NEAREST THE LOW IN HIGHER WINDS...AND HAVE
READJUSTED THE GRIDS TO MAKE THEM MORE CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL
SHIP OBSERVATION NOTED AT 06Z. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN THE LOCAL NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND
WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PROMISING THIS TO NO AVAIL FOR QUITE
SOME TIME...THE MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH SEEMS TO GIVE NEW REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. SHOULD IT INTENSIFY AS
EXPECTED...THE WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW TO DIE DOWN OVER THOSE
SAME WATERS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL BE PULLED OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS RATHER FOREBODING...IT SHOULD PROVE TO BE
MUCH LESS SERIOUS THAN THE BANDS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED SO FAR AND THIS RETREAT OF THE LOW SHOULD GIVE PUERTO
RICO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. BECAUSE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES DURING THIS CLEARING TREND...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THE NORTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE MORE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE FROM THE EAST INTO THE AREA AND STALL OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WE ENTER INTO SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE WEST SIDE SUBSIDENCE OF THAT LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
TODAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TJPS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJSJ FROM 10-16...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 16Z. TJBQ WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM
10-18Z...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AN
EXTENSION MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING IN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERWARD INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WILL CAUSE SLOWLY RISING SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. IN
THE CARIBBEAN A SIMILAR TREND WILL BE SEEN BUT TO A LESSER
DEGREE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ALL BUT TWO RIVERS...THE MAUNABO AND THE GUAYANES...HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AS OF 6 AM AST. THESE WILL LIKELY NOT
COME DOWN DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING THERE. THEREFORE
EXPECT TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING BEFORE 8 AM AST THIS
MORNING AND WARN ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
MOVES ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. UNLESS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE CLEARING TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THAT IS NOT
REALLY EXPECTED...THERE SHOULD BE LESS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THAN
THIS MORNING...BUT IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS OVER THE ISLAND WILL
HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL ALL
DANGER OF CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP HAS PASSED
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
The longer 93L just hangs around Hispaniola, the higher chance its not going north. A trough is not going to dig down to Hispaniola and pick it up.
It would not surprise me that as steering currents collapse, 93L just builds convection south of Hispaniola meandering for a couple of days....then the cutoff low either does not have as much of an effect and ridging starts to build back in by the weekend (which is supposed to happen).
It would not surprise me that as steering currents collapse, 93L just builds convection south of Hispaniola meandering for a couple of days....then the cutoff low either does not have as much of an effect and ridging starts to build back in by the weekend (which is supposed to happen).
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
HURAKAN put this 11:45 UTC ssd dvorak position.Its in the Atlantic waters.
23/1145 UTC 19.8N 69.2W T1.5/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
23/1145 UTC 19.8N 69.2W T1.5/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
What happens to the steering flow if that low doesn't develop off the SE coast. Where does 93L go if that low doesn't form,will the flow still be southerly regardless if it forms or not. I'm sure if that low doesn't form the flow would change somewhat.If someone has a good answer to this one that would be much appreciated.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
boca wrote:What happens to the steering flow if that low doesn't develop off the SE coast. Where does 93L go if that low doesn't form,will the flow still be southerly regardless if it forms or not. I'm sure if that low doesn't form the flow would change somewhat.If someone has a good answer to this one that would be much appreciated.
If the low doesn't form, then 93L would more than likely drift around for a bit more move very slowly west or west northwest. Without a low, ridging (Bermuda High) would be allowed to build back in more quickly.
Nonetheless even with the cutoff low, ridging is expected to build back in by the 5-6 daytime frame. But models are counting on 93L to be way north by that time.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
cycloneye wrote:HURAKAN put this 11:45 UTC ssd dvorak position.Its in the Atlantic waters.
23/1145 UTC 19.8N 69.2W T1.5/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

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- bvigal
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
cycloneye wrote:HURAKAN put this 11:45 UTC ssd dvorak position.Its in the Atlantic waters.
23/1145 UTC 19.8N 69.2W T1.5/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
Quite a switch from their Caribbean position 17.9N 68.4W 6hrs ago.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
I must say the straight north track seemed strange, but the discussion by some posters make sense. There is a trough coming, and that would likely influence the track, whether the huge cutoff low develops or not. The fact that the estimate of a center is now north of the islands also points to the northward track verifying. Like always, we're waiting for a center to develop to really know whether the system is and where it's going.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
What a crazy looking invest, with the circulation to the N of Hispanola and all the deep convection to the S, I would think most of that deep convection to the S would die off while being drug over Hispanola. Is it possible there is another circulation S of Hispanola that is sustaining all that deep convection?
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- AJC3
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion
gatorcane wrote:boca wrote:What happens to the steering flow if that low doesn't develop off the SE coast. Where does 93L go if that low doesn't form,will the flow still be southerly regardless if it forms or not. I'm sure if that low doesn't form the flow would change somewhat.If someone has a good answer to this one that would be much appreciated.
If the low doesn't form, then 93L would more than likely drift around for a bit more move very slowly west or west northwest. Without a low, ridging (Bermuda High) would be allowed to build back in more quickly.
Nonetheless even with the cutoff low, ridging is expected to build back in by the 5-6 daytime frame. But models are counting on 93L to be way north by that time.
Are both of you seriously entertaining the thought that a sub 580DM low will close off at 500MB offshore the Carolinas, over the Gulf stream, in late September, where a surface trough is already in place, and nothing will form at the surface?
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