ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

[HurricaneFreak]

WELL so far one computer model points it close to Bahamas and Florida and that is CLIP.BUT Ii it to early to say that it could hit THE FAMOUS CITY OF AMERICA NYC cause a few models project it to go directly over it.

[Recurve]

Local newspaper, the Sun Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale) says it looks like Fla. won't be bothered by this storm. It's early to say that, isn't it, although the models don't have it coming that way. Isn't it true that the early models change quite a bit ?

Channel 10 said it was definitly not a threat here.

They're looking at the same models we are...but as I think we know, the models don't matter much for a wave with no center.

The low-level steering with the kink over Hispaniola looks just like it was for Fay, or was it Gus?

[canetracker]

Check out the 00z GFS initialization. Does it look a little off?

For what its worth this is the GFS at 18 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_018l.gif
24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif
500 mb layer at 24 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_024l.gif

36 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
500 mb @ 36 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_036l.gif

60 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_060l.gif
500 mb and looks to be going out to sea?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_060l.gif

72 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

84 hr Bye Bye 93L according to this run at least.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_084l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

[canetracker]

96 hr and a high pressure system to the north and east

500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

[canetracker]

Hello NE CONUS!
850 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_114l.gif
500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_114l.gif

[jinftl]

The future track of 93L is really up in the air....the models have done very badly so far even predicting the movement during the last 24 hours.....no models on sunday night showed a wnw movement in the short-term....if they have performed this badly in the short-term, i would not put much weight on them until a center is clearly established....until then, it's a crap shoot....they may be right on the general direction (more north than west).....but focusing on 4-5 day plot points is absurd at this point...none of the models got the 24-hour plot point correct from last night through tonight.

[Wx_Warrior]

Argue all you want about wnw or whatever...But every model is saying nearly the same thing.

[jinftl]

Looking back at the models from late sunday...actual track has been close to what LBAR, the outlier, predicted so far.

[gatorcane]

93L better get going north over the next couple of days. Ridging does build back in around 5-6 days but only for about 2-3 days. Still, it would be enough to send it west.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL makes landfall in Long Island.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF goes to Maine.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

06z GFDL makes landfall in Long Island.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Yeah but it has 93L initialized too far east and then the current movement should be NNE away from the NE tip of Dominican Republic for several hundred miles according to this run.

Seems unlikely at the moment.

[gatorcane]

06z GFDL makes landfall in Long Island.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF goes to Maine.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF is a bit more believable as it sends 93L slowly west for about 12 hours then shoots it off to the north.

[jinftl]

GFDL animation shows about 18-24 hours of travel time over the water between the latitude of Cape Hatteras and landfall on LI......93L or Kyle or whatever it is will need to be traveling alot faster at that point to maintain itself....these are the current water temps....fall from the 70s to the 60s as you move north of hatteras and towards LI.

This could end up a huge extra-tropical or sub-tropical storm even.

06z GFDL makes landfall in Long Island.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF goes to Maine.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF is a bit more believable as it sends 93L slowly west for about 12 hours then shoots it off to the north.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 231227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC TUE SEP 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080923 1200 080924 0000 080924 1200 080925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 69.8W 19.7N 71.1W 20.3N 72.3W 21.4N 72.6W
BAMD 19.2N 69.8W 19.8N 70.6W 20.5N 71.1W 22.0N 71.2W
BAMM 19.2N 69.8W 19.6N 70.8W 20.1N 71.7W 21.2N 72.0W
LBAR 19.2N 69.8W 19.9N 70.4W 20.9N 70.7W 22.2N 70.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080925 1200 080926 1200 080927 1200 080928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 73.0W 25.7N 72.3W 30.3N 70.5W 35.7N 66.3W
BAMD 24.0N 70.8W 28.7N 69.8W 34.2N 67.1W 40.4N 57.8W
BAMM 22.7N 71.9W 26.6N 70.5W 31.3N 68.2W 37.1N 61.1W
LBAR 23.6N 70.5W 25.9N 70.7W 27.4N 71.5W 29.8N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 70KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 68.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

The models already have 93L as a storm moving north. That just isn't happening.

In my view, we can't look at the models until we have a center. We have a strong tropical wave drifting west or stalled right now...

[gatorcane]

Looking at the GFS model 06Z run, it looks like in about 3 days, H5 ridging starts building in from the Eastern Caribbean in 54 hours and builds westward:



and continues to build west for several days. Here is 120 hours:


There is a possibility if 93L stays as a wave meandering around it starts getting pushed west in 54 hours

[Category 5]

KWBC 231227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC TUE SEP 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080923 1200 080924 0000 080924 1200 080925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 69.8W 19.7N 71.1W 20.3N 72.3W 21.4N 72.6W
BAMD 19.2N 69.8W 19.8N 70.6W 20.5N 71.1W 22.0N 71.2W
BAMM 19.2N 69.8W 19.6N 70.8W 20.1N 71.7W 21.2N 72.0W
LBAR 19.2N 69.8W 19.9N 70.4W 20.9N 70.7W 22.2N 70.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080925 1200 080926 1200 080927 1200 080928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 73.0W 25.7N 72.3W 30.3N 70.5W 35.7N 66.3W
BAMD 24.0N 70.8W 28.7N 69.8W 34.2N 67.1W 40.4N 57.8W
BAMM 22.7N 71.9W 26.6N 70.5W 31.3N 68.2W 37.1N 61.1W
LBAR 23.6N 70.5W 25.9N 70.7W 27.4N 71.5W 29.8N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 70KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 68.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

That CMC track would be disastrous if this is a cat 2 storm or higher.

[jinftl]

To landfall as a Cat 2 on LI or NYC would either require a Cat 3 moving at 35+mph once north of Hatteras....or a Cat 4 or more at a speed like 20 mph.....the water quickly drops through the 70s and into the 60s for quite a distance south of Long Island.....water off LI in the low to mid 60s (few upper 60s even fading fast).....the journey from Hatteras would be suicide.

KWBC 231227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC TUE SEP 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080923 1200 080924 0000 080924 1200 080925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 69.8W 19.7N 71.1W 20.3N 72.3W 21.4N 72.6W
BAMD 19.2N 69.8W 19.8N 70.6W 20.5N 71.1W 22.0N 71.2W
BAMM 19.2N 69.8W 19.6N 70.8W 20.1N 71.7W 21.2N 72.0W
LBAR 19.2N 69.8W 19.9N 70.4W 20.9N 70.7W 22.2N 70.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080925 1200 080926 1200 080927 1200 080928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 73.0W 25.7N 72.3W 30.3N 70.5W 35.7N 66.3W
BAMD 24.0N 70.8W 28.7N 69.8W 34.2N 67.1W 40.4N 57.8W
BAMM 22.7N 71.9W 26.6N 70.5W 31.3N 68.2W 37.1N 61.1W
LBAR 23.6N 70.5W 25.9N 70.7W 27.4N 71.5W 29.8N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 70KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 68.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

That CMC track would be disastrous if this is a cat 2 storm or higher.

[Category 5]

To landfall as a Cat 2 on LI or NYC would either require a Cat 3 or 4 moving at 35+mph once north of Hatteras....or a Cat 4 or more at a speed like 20 mph.....the water quickly drops through the 70s and into the 60s for quite a distance south of Long Island.....water off LI in the low to mid 60s (few upper 60s by fading fast).....the journey from Hatteras would be suicide.

KWBC 231227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC TUE SEP 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080923 1200 080924 0000 080924 1200 080925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 69.8W 19.7N 71.1W 20.3N 72.3W 21.4N 72.6W
BAMD 19.2N 69.8W 19.8N 70.6W 20.5N 71.1W 22.0N 71.2W
BAMM 19.2N 69.8W 19.6N 70.8W 20.1N 71.7W 21.2N 72.0W
LBAR 19.2N 69.8W 19.9N 70.4W 20.9N 70.7W 22.2N 70.7W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080925 1200 080926 1200 080927 1200 080928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 73.0W 25.7N 72.3W 30.3N 70.5W 35.7N 66.3W
BAMD 24.0N 70.8W 28.7N 69.8W 34.2N 67.1W 40.4N 57.8W
BAMM 22.7N 71.9W 26.6N 70.5W 31.3N 68.2W 37.1N 61.1W
LBAR 23.6N 70.5W 25.9N 70.7W 27.4N 71.5W 29.8N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 70KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 73KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 68.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

That CMC track would be disastrous if this is a cat 2 storm or higher.

Thank goodness for that too, water temps here are down from the last few years. However even as a strong TS-Cat1 an onshore flow can cause havoc here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

One thing in favor of keeping more strength than sub 20ºC water would normally support, a hurricane headed toward NY/NJ/New England would probably start feeling baroclinic enhancement, and as I noted in a thread where I inquired about the difference between baroclinic interactions and extra-tropical transition, some storms, like Hazel, remain powerful far North of the tropics.