ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[boca]

If the center forms at 19.8n then 93L would head north.If it forms at 17.9n wouldn't that put a wrench in the steering flow being that far south.

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

AL, 93, 2008092312, , BEST, 0, 192N, 698W, 30, 1008

[Frank2]

I just don't see it heading north at this time - really, it doesn't seem to have any chance of moving much at all...

Perhaps a slow drift to the southwest, but, that's all:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[cycloneye]

I just don't see it heading north at this time - really, it doesn't seem to have any chance of moving much at all...

Perhaps a slow drift to the southwest, but, that's all:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Acording to the model guidance at 12:00 UTC its crawling at 300 degrees at 4kts.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

[jlauderdal]

I just don't see it heading north at this time - really, it doesn't seem to have any chance of moving much at all...

Perhaps a slow drift to the southwest, but, that's all:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

If nothing else we have a very interesting setup taking place in a few days off the mid atlantic coast, lets see what happens with the energy that is forecast and where it goes and if we can get a significant feature making landfall in the NE.


Here is AJC3's post at 530 this am, sums up the situation well.


Pretty soon whatever little westward progress 93L is now making will come to a grinding halt. If you look at watervapor imagery You can see the strong mid/upper level trough over the eastern CONUS dropping southward. All of the global model guidance shows the base of this trough cutting off into a closed low offshore the Carolinas by early Wednesday...then show the low retrograding southwestward into the SE CONUS between Wednesday and Friday. The steering currents north of
93L are already in the process of collapsing...and eventually 93L should turn north into increasing southerly flow between the cutoff and the ATLC ridge to the east. It's been reluctant to move northward thus far, owing to the fact that the model guidance has been too aggressive in spinning in up.

If it was to remain a weak disorganized mess instead of spinning up, I suppose it might be a bit slower to turn north, however the shallow layer BAM is not very far apart from the medium and deep layer BAM throughout the next five days. This means that the steering currents at all layers are eventually pointing toward a northward motion.

With the upper low in the process of cutting off, it's just a matter of time until a surface low begins to spin up offshore the southeast US coast...so there isn't even going to be a low level ridge north of 93L ...only deep layer southerly flow.

[Blown Away]

IMO, I don't see the circulation on the N coast of Hispanola being able to sustain all the deep convection way to the S for much longer. I think once the circulation center begins to move N away from the coast we will see all that deep convection S of Hispanola begin to die off and new convection begin to build around the circulation center as it moves N.

[Stormcenter]

If the center forms at 19.8n then 93L would head north.If it forms at 17.9n wouldn't that put a wrench in the steering flow being that far south.

It's going to go north at some time. It's just a matter of time.

[Frank2]

I think the chance of a NE landfall is very slim at best, but, time will tell...

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!), but, in reality, the NE only sees a landfall hurricane once in every 10-15 years, at the most (more like once every 15-20 years), so, it's a rare event that far north...

Frank

[jlauderdal]

I think the chance of a NE landfall is very slim at best, but, time will tell...

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!), but, in reality, the NE only sees a landfall hurricane once in every 10-15 years, at the most (more like once every 15-20 years), so, it's a rare event that far north...

Frank

thats why it is so interesting, its a rare event, besides maybe shutting wall street down for a couple of days might cool things off and buy some time to get a solution figured out, the clock is ticking per behrnake

[stayawaynow]

I think the chance of a NE landfall is very slim at best, but, time will tell...

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!), but, in reality, the NE only sees a landfall hurricane once in every 10-15 years, at the most (more like once every 15-20 years), so, it's a rare event that far north...

Frank

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!),

[gatorcane]

I just don't see it heading north at this time - really, it doesn't seem to have any chance of moving much at all...

Perhaps a slow drift to the southwest, but, that's all:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Acording to the model guidance at 12:00 UTC its crawling at 300 degrees at 4kts.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

the model guidance also had it heading north of Puerto Rico at least by a couple of hundred miles already if you look back about 48 hours ago.

The real question is can a low form south of Hispaniola...

[jlauderdal]

I think the chance of a NE landfall is very slim at best, but, time will tell...

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!), but, in reality, the NE only sees a landfall hurricane once in every 10-15 years, at the most (more like once every 15-20 years), so, it's a rare event that far north...

Frank

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!),

thats an understatement, there are places on the net where -removed- is common practice and believe me they are hoping and praying, kind of like if we could get some snow south of daytona beach

[gatorcane]

What happens to the steering flow if that low doesn't develop off the SE coast. Where does 93L go if that low doesn't form,will the flow still be southerly regardless if it forms or not. I'm sure if that low doesn't form the flow would change somewhat.If someone has a good answer to this one that would be much appreciated.

If the low doesn't form, then 93L would more than likely drift around for a bit more move very slowly west or west northwest. Without a low, ridging (Bermuda High) would be allowed to build back in more quickly.

Nonetheless even with the cutoff low, ridging is expected to build back in by the 5-6 daytime frame. But models are counting on 93L to be way north by that time.

Are both of you seriously entertaining the thought that a sub 580DM low will close off at 500MB offshore the Carolinas, over the Gulf stream, in late September, where a surface trough is already in place, and nothing will form at the surface?

It's interesting to entertain the possibility of it not moving north like the models suggest. Considering the models have been very wrong so far to this point (as I forecasted a couple of days ago, just look back at my posts)...and that 93L seems to building SW still....who is to say a new low develops south of Hispaniola and it ends up more west than models prog?

I agree with you its hard to doubt the globals which all insist on a cut-off low...one thing is for sure about 48 hours ago the thinking was that 93L would be about 100-150 miles north of Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic heading NNW or N.
That just isn't happening.

[Frank2]

Yes, considering the unusual things that Bertha, Fay and Hannah did, as Plucky Duck (Tiny Toons) would say, "Expect the unexpected!" when it comes to 93L...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think the chance of a NE landfall is very slim at best, but, time will tell...

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!), but, in reality, the NE only sees a landfall hurricane once in every 10-15 years, at the most (more like once every 15-20 years), so, it's a rare event that far north...

Frank

thats why it is so interesting, its a rare event, besides maybe shutting wall street down for a couple of days might cool things off and buy some time to get a solution figured out, the clock is ticking per behrnake

A Cat 3 would be really hard to pull off, since this isn't even a depression yet and waters cool dramatically North of about the latitude of ACY, but a Cat 3 into Northern Jersey from the Southeast would push a storm surge over lower Manhattan, fill the subways with salt water, and shut down lower Manhattan for weeks as the subways are pumped out and damaged electric equipment is repaired.

I saw it on The Weather Channel.


I think a big part of the Wall Street crisis is due The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and the 1995 revisions that forced banks to make a certain percentage of their loans to low income/bad credit borrowers under threat of government penalty.

[gatorcane]

Well you can clearly see the "trough" digging down into the SE US....in this WV loop.

Then we see 93L building convection SW into the Central Caribbean with no sign of getting picked up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[jlauderdal]

I think the chance of a NE landfall is very slim at best, but, time will tell...

There are always those who live in the NE that want to see something come their way (!), but, in reality, the NE only sees a landfall hurricane once in every 10-15 years, at the most (more like once every 15-20 years), so, it's a rare event that far north...

Frank

thats why it is so interesting, its a rare event, besides maybe shutting wall street down for a couple of days might cool things off and buy some time to get a solution figured out, the clock is ticking per behrnake

A Cat 3 would be really hard to pull off, since this isn't even a depression yet and waters cool dramatically North of about the latitude of ACY, but a Cat 3 into Northern Jersey from the Southeast would push a storm surge over lower Manhattan, fill the subways with salt water, and shut down lower Manhattan for weeks as the subways are pumped out and damaged electric equipment is repaired.

I saw it on The Weather Channel.


I think a big part of the Wall Street crisis is due The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and the 1995 revisions that forced banks to make a certain percentage of their loans to low income/bad credit borrowers under threat of government penalty.

cat 3 isnt going to happen with those ssts but a maybe a cat 1 moving quickly up the trough would

just because you are low income doesnt mean you aren't credit worthy and just because you are high income doesn't meant you are worthy, drive around my hood and checkout a few foreclosure signs on some very nice pieces of real estate

[AJC3]

It's interesting to entertain the possibility of it not moving north like the models suggest. Considering the models have been very wrong so far to this point (as I forecasted a couple of days ago, just look back at my posts)...and that 93L seems to building SW still....who is to say a new low develops south of Hispaniola and it ends up more west than models prog?

I agree with you its hard to doubt the globals which all insist on a cut-off low...one thing is for sure about 48 hours ago the thinking was that 93L would be about 100-150 miles north of Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic heading NNW or N. That just isn't happening.

I think the failure of the system to move N or NNW from when it was south of PR, as depicted by earlier model guidance, was a function of the model guidance showing a developing TC...which clearly did not occur.

As wrong and changeable as the model guidance has been w/r/t 93L lifting out to the north, it has been much more consistent and correct in its depiction of the evolving mid-upper pattern along the SE seaboard of the U.S. I think that's where a bit more forecast confidence comes in, since the trough can be seen digging southward in WV imagery and upper level analyses.

As I mentioned in an earlier post...there really isn't any semblance of a ridge left to the north of 93L anymore that would push it significantly farther westward. Hence, if 93L either fails to lift out northward, or does so quite a bit more slowly that progged...than you won't need TC formation for there to be a big weather story; Hispanola...especially the DR...would wind up with a staggering amount of rainfall...probably more than the two feet that occurred over parts of PR. As bad as it already is there right now, that would simply be heart-wrenching to see another significant bout of death and destruction on that island.

[Ed Mahmoud]

1938 showed if a storm can get to Cat 5 East of Florida, and is moving fast enough, the cool water off NY only has time to weaken the storm to a Cat 3.


Of course, this isn't starting as a Cat 5 East of Florida.


No, income and credit levels don't correspond automatically, but if a bank is forced to make a certain percentage of loans to low income borrowers, eventually it is forced to make loans to people of questionable credit, or else it won't meet the Federal obligation.

[Sanibel]

93L is confusing. I believe it is stalling and hanging up on Hispaniola which further weakened the already weak center allowing the wave axis convergence in the Caribbean to appear like a reforming center to the south.

When it resumes forward movement more north towards the developing cut-off Low synoptic it should take all that energy with it and form.

Good thing the shear direction is keeping the worst of that deep convection off Haiti for now.

There's mid-swirl that looks like it is taking off north of PR like GFDL had it originally. But I think it's just an eddy.