ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Blown Away]

Is it possible for a second LLC to develop S of Hispanola? Looking at the satellite loop it seems the convection down S is rotating around a different circulation?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

The main center of circulation still appears to be near the northern coast of Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

The main center of circulation still appears to be near the northern coast of Hispaniola.

if there is one there it is weak and fading away it seems

[Blown Away]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

The main center of circulation still appears to be near the northern coast of Hispaniola.

if there is one there it is weak and fading away it seems

I agree the circulation is not that impressive.

[gatorcane]

it just shows that the big island of Hispaniola can do weird things to systems...

The way this thing goes north is if that remnant LLC along the north coast of Hispaniola becomes the dominant center and convection starts building north of the island (thereby deepening this thing so it can feel 500MB steering).

Otherwise I do think it may linger for several days south of Hispaniola as a strong tropical wave stalled out and drift around erratically but slowly west (with the low-level flow)...

Now if it were late October or November I do see a powerful enough trough digging SE to pick up and "clean" up the Caribbean..

It's only September though.

[Blown Away]

I see the convection to the S of Hispanola rotating around an area near 17.8N/69.9W.

[gatorcane]

I see the convection to the S of Hispanola rotating around an area near 17.8N/69.9W.

I'm not quite sure I see it there yet, link?

[HURAKAN]

Could there be a new center trying to develop between La Romana and Santo Domingo (Americas)?



When no one agrees where the center is, that's usually an indication of the organization of the system.

[gatorcane]

yeah I see nothing but a strong tropical wave still with no movement, no center.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I recall Mitch was forecast to drift Northward into the Gulf, and instead drifted further Southwest into the Caribbean.


I'd hope the models have improved in ten years.

[gatorcane]

Latest:

Convection ramping up more south (in the Central and South Caribbean):

[Sanibel]

Gatorcane:

The reason that convection is in the Caribbean is because the weak center is over land making the convergence further south on the wave axis have more energy for now.

There's a reason 93L hasn't progressed further than Hispaniola over the last 48 hours.

[jinftl]

Seems more and more likely that parts of Haiti may deal with some of the convection of 93L....that would be devestating in the wake of the recent floods and loss of life there. Let's hope the convection lifts north and leaves Haiti alone.

[Category 5]

Seems more and more likely that parts of Haiti may deal with some of the convection of 93L....that would be devestating in the wake of the recent floods and loss of life there. Let's hope the convection lifts north and leaves Haiti alone.

This is in a very bad spot I agree, this entire area has been battered mercilessly. I can only hope it pulls north, and fast.

[Sanibel]

I put a loose, sheared center near "Constanza" on that Dominican radar.

[Frank2]

This late in the season, you never know - look what happened during the 1966 season (imagine what this board would have been like - had the Internet been around back then)...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[jlauderdal]

This late in the season, you never know - look what happened during the 1966 season (imagine what this board would have been like - had the Internet been around back then)...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

back then the xtrp was the model of choice

[Frank2]

Similar to those early "Miami bound" Gustav model plots that looked more like railroad tracks...

LOL

[jlauderdal]

Similar to those early "Miami bound" Gustav model plots that looked more like railroad tracks...

LOL

Ike was forecast to come to miami too. Miami has been hit by models over and over and by accuwx. Does anyone else think this invest wants to form south of hispanola?

FYI, we have a 700 billion dollar experiment in progress, incredible they would ask for that kind of money to run an experiment, the experiment is their word not mine.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I see a very pronounced circulation at around 17.8n 69w. Whether it is mid level or lower level is in doubt but I see no doubt it is the only circulation of consequence.