JB style SE US homebrew

[Lowpressure]

Not so funny you mention this after IKE but Joe B believes the S GOM will be a hotspot next week.

If he keeps guessing, he may get 1 right this year. Amazing how people still follow him.

[Category 5]

Not so funny you mention this after IKE but Joe B believes the S GOM will be a hotspot next week.

If he keeps guessing, he may get 1 right this year. Amazing how people still follow him.

Will the S GOM be hot next week?




Theres where your forecast comes from.

[Ptarmigan]

Not so funny you mention this after IKE but Joe B believes the S GOM will be a hotspot next week.

I hope Joe Bastardi is wrong about it.

[flwxwatcher]

Interesting to see the EURO now brewing a system right off the Florida East Coast then taking it North.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8092100!!/

[Frank2]

Hopefully no one will listen to JB's comments on this system - he's likely to say something like "It's 1938 all over again!" or something like that...

He seems to want to be the center of attention, that's for sure...

[jinftl]

Every time someone posts an anti-JB tirade, all you are doing is elevating this thread to the most recent updated status....inadvertently drawing more attention to JB's words than they would have otherwise gotten. Without all the commentary, including this post by me, this thread would be half-way down the page already falling out of view.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB isn't as wrong as much as some people claim.

Anyway, 12Z GFS looks home-brewish to me...




12Z GFS also has a near miss of a big New England storm that he has been pushing this year...



BTW, JB has left open the possibility since late last week that 93L may trump the homebrew, saying the big high to the North would favor a TC or sub-tropical system off the SE/Mid Atlantic whether homebrew or out of the tropics...

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS Loop

Per the JB video, old rule from the days before computer models that his father subscribed to - mid August to mid October, pressure reaches/exceeds 1025 mb at Cape Hatteras, look out to the South.

I guess because pressure that high over Hatteras implies strong East winds over the SE US and Bahamas, and the Florida landmass causes slowing/convergence.

GFS shows big time Northeast US high pressure, and then falling pressure, kind of in the shape of an inverted trough in the next week.



GFS also shows Cape Verde season trying to refire, although it seems to be getting less likely something can get all the way across to North America/the islands in late September.

JB's ideas from a week ago still have model support. 0Z GFS. And, JB's homebrew might Fujiwara 93L/future Kyle into Delaware Bay, and flood PHL, JB's other much discussed idea all season.

[weatherwoman]

Not so funny you mention this after IKE but Joe B believes the S GOM will be a hotspot next week.

If he keeps guessing, he may get 1 right this year. Amazing how people still follow him.

because he is so good at what he does thats why people still read and listen to him,

[Steve]

Yeah, I like to hear Joe's ideas. I don't always agree with them, and obviously they don't always verify, but I want to read as much information that I possibly can about every threat to help learn for next time if maybe there's something there that the casual observer can identify.

JMO

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hopefully no one will listen to JB's comments on this system - he's likely to say something like "It's 1938 all over again!" or something like that...

He seems to want to be the center of attention, that's for sure...

Hmmm, new WRF sees 40 knots and a long fetch onto the Outer Banks, later tomorrow...



The other models, including the GFS, look similar. May not be a purely tropical system, but it is looking like a hybrid possibly, with tropical storm conditions on the coast.

[weatherwoman]

looks to me like Joe knows his business again correct in his predictions, things looks to be worse here on the coast than they were in Hannah, she was a joke we didnt even get any rain our of her here in Carteret Co

[Category 5]

looks to me like Joe knows his business again correct in his predictions, things looks to be worse here on the coast than they were in Hannah, she was a joke we didnt even get any rain our of her here in Carteret Co

For that you should be thankful.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Joe Bastardi knows what he is talking about. He has nailed this
low forecasted to deepen off the southeast coast resulting in
tropical storm force winds for much of the east coast
and mid atlantic due to the low and pressure gradient.

JB also correctly called Wilma in 2005 about 1 week before
it became a depression.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

looks to me like Joe knows his business again correct in his predictions, things looks to be worse here on the coast than they were in Hannah, she was a joke we didnt even get any rain our of her here in Carteret Co

For that you should be thankful.

Correct me if I'm wrong but parts of North Carolina are in an extreme drought and
still need rain, and Hannah may not have busted the drought in some areas;
at least that is what I heard on the weather channel.

[HURAKAN]

TBH,

He also called "Gabrielle" last year to be a powerful hurricane that would move towards the NE causing a lot of damage. Didn't happen.

He said this year first that Hanna would be a powerful hurricane that would move towards the Carolina's and compared it to Hugo and Andrew in national TV.

JB is a professional meteorologist and he may be a very smart person but his projections and ideas are incredibly inaccurate a good deal of the time. I respect him because he is a pro-met, but I never take seriously what he says.

[amawea]

I like J.B.'s blog. I believe he's as right as any other pro met on long range predictions.

[OuterBanker]

Rough times next couple days here.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Newport, NC
3:24 pm EDT, Tue., Sep. 23, 2008

... COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ... HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELED... ... COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LEAD TO THE OCCURRENCE OF STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE SEAS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST REACHING A PEAK OF 15 TO 20 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE SEAS WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SURF ALONG THE EAST FACING BEACHES NORTH OF LOOKOUT WITH BREAKERS OF 8 FEET OR HIGHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS... DANGEROUS SURF AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH WATER LEVELS. WATERS LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS... WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVERWASH ALONG HIGHWAY 12... MAKING IT IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF HATTERAS. WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL ALSO PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ALONG DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE ADAMS CREEK... SOUTH RIVER... AND CEDAR ISLAND.

RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONG... NARROW CHANNELS OF WATER THAT FLOW OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT... REMAIN CALM. TRY TO SWIM ON A COURSE THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU GET AWAY FROM THE RIP... THEN SWIM IN TO SHORE. DO NOT TRY TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE RIP... SINCE IT CAN EXHAUST AND EVEN KILL THE STRONGEST SWIMMER. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU STAY OUT OF THE WATER TODAY.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND SIGNS POSTED NEAR BEACH ACCESS POINTS AND LIFEGUARD STATIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER... AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.


Issued by The National Weather Service
Newport, NC
3:09 pm EDT, Tue., Sep. 23, 2008

... HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CREATE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TODAY TO PREPARE FOR THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Just posted

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z WRF simulated radar, looks sort of interesting...

[xironman]

It is a pretty cool looking little system, I wonder if it can take on tropical characteristics before tomorrow?