ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

After Ike people have disappeared like the season is over. This system may bring them back!

As the front detachest it appears that this is clearly becoming tropical. I think it should be kyle very soon indeed.

[Frank2]

It seems 94L will be Kyle, but, 93L is about gone, fortunately...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[AJC3]

however, the low is seperating itself from the front.... the map above shows the low along the front but the when looking at a close up sat loop, you can see where the front is now east of that low and the low drifting soutwestward... as long as the low seperates from the front like we are seeing now, i think this could become at least a sub-tropical system lter today



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Preaching to the choir, Jesse. I pretty much made those points in my earlier post. All I said in my reply to Justin was that the ST designation as of 12Z simply referred to the technique used, and that HPC was still analyzing the cyclone as frontal at that time.

[wxman57]

Based on their statement, the NHC will wait for recon before doing anything. I guess if recon couldn't get out there, they couldn't upgrade it to STS Kyle.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't think this will get, nor will it need moisture/energy from 93L (not to disagree too much with Dr. Masters) especially with 93L stuck where it is or drifting WSW or some such direction. Apparently this is aquiring tropical characteristics a little faster than "later today"

[vacanechaser]

however, the low is seperating itself from the front.... the map above shows the low along the front but the when looking at a close up sat loop, you can see where the front is now east of that low and the low drifting soutwestward... as long as the low seperates from the front like we are seeing now, i think this could become at least a sub-tropical system lter today



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Preaching to the choir, Jesse. I pretty much made those points in my earlier post. All I said in my reply to Justin was that the ST designation as of 12Z simply referred to the technique used, and that HPC was still analyzing the cyclone as frontal at that time.

10-4... was not calling you out or anything... just an ob... looks like this thing is starting to take off... trying to decide where to head... the outer banks today looks good.. talking about overwash on hw 12... from there, i guess head south... still trying to feel it out... lol


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanefloyd5]

Think a Special ADV. will go out for what will be Kyle????????

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on their statement, the NHC will wait for recon before doing anything. I guess if recon couldn't get out there, they couldn't upgrade it to STS Kyle.

So they would not upgrade with out recon if this plain as day detached from any "front", formed minus 80 convection, and then started to strengthen. It is slowly going in this direction...In I think if it can move away from this "front" dieing one at that, then it should be upgraded.

[jinftl]

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
IS ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDS OF UP TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Think a Special ADV. will go out for what will be Kyle????????

[expat2carib]

I think wxman57 was right in the 93L discussion some days ago

Sure do have to go on 24/7 coverage for this system if it develops. I think it may merge with the predicted storm center along the Mid Atlantic Coast late this week. Could be impacting our east coast clients.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103291&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=280

[BensonTCwatcher]

Winds increasing from NE as forecast. expecting up to 50 mph at coast, and well incland due to gradient with H. We have seen setups like this prduce some nasty storms at the coast regardless of classification. Usually they are a bit later in the year. Although all season long it has looked more like a fall set up across the conus and carrib.

[AJC3]

10-4... was not calling you out or anything... just an ob... looks like this thing is starting to take off... trying to decide where to head... the outer banks today looks good.. talking about overwash on hw 12... from there, i guess head south... still trying to feel it out... lol


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yeah, this is one of those ugly situations where, even before the XT low started to form, you pretty much had gale force (or nearly so) winds yesterday due to the tight pgrad between the large high over the northeast U.S. and the weak trough/front offshore. From a forecaster perspective, it becomes a pretty much impossible to discern where the winds associated with the low itself are on the north side of the system versus the pre-existing gradient flow to the north. And when/if the cyclone winds up transitioning from an XTC to a STC to a TC, you often wind up having gale warnings next to TC warnings. IIRC just last year with Noel we had gale warning in place along the east central FL coast due to a tight pgrad associated with a strong high to our north, and wound up with TS warnings for southeast FL and the Bahamas, immediately adjacent to the gale warnings.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se6vs.html

Link to more images: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/g8severe.html

[HURAKAN]

Microwave Image.

[Evil Jeremy]

Could this system break the record time from Invest to Cyclone that was set by Humberto (I think)? I have also never seen a subtropical hurricane before, could that happen?

[hurricanedude]

no such thing as subtropical hurricane....HURRICANE means purely tropical!

[Cryomaniac]

^ So a Subtropical storm with 85kt winds would still be called a Subtropical storm?

[Evil Jeremy]

no such thing as subtropical hurricane....HURRICANE means purely tropical!

Oh, in that case, has there ben a subtropical storm with Hurricane winds since they started naming them?

[Hurricaneman]

^ So a Subtropical storm with 85kt winds would still be called a Subtropical storm?

yep because it isn't purely tropical