ATL INVEST 94L: Models

[HURAKAN]

Models run here!

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS suggests strongest winds well North of the lowest pressure.


6Z GFS also suggests somewhat warm core, becoming completely non-tropical again after moving inland.


I don't see any tropical models yet. 6Z UK Met suggests a healthy looking system at landfall.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Strongest winds well north = subtropical cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

621
WHXX04 KWBC 241721
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST    94L

INITIAL TIME  12Z SEP 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            31.8             74.8           270./ 1.9
   6            31.6             74.9           210./ 1.9
  12            31.7             75.2           283./ 2.7
  18            32.6             76.1           313./11.7
  24            33.1             76.6           316./ 6.7
  30            34.1             77.4           324./12.4
  36            35.4             79.0           308./17.9
  42            35.2             80.8           263./15.3
  48            34.6             82.1           247./12.0
  54            34.4             82.2           215./ 2.0
  60            34.6             82.1            47./ 1.9
  66            37.3             83.4           334./29.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT  66 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Code: Select all

621
WHXX04 KWBC 241721
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST    94L

INITIAL TIME  12Z SEP 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            31.8             74.8           270./ 1.9
   6            31.6             74.9           210./ 1.9
  12            31.7             75.2           283./ 2.7
  18            32.6             76.1           313./11.7
  24            33.1             76.6           316./ 6.7
  30            34.1             77.4           324./12.4
  36            35.4             79.0           308./17.9
  42            35.2             80.8           263./15.3
  48            34.6             82.1           247./12.0
  54            34.4             82.2           215./ 2.0
  60            34.6             82.1            47./ 1.9
  66            37.3             83.4           334./29.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT  66 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

Marginal Cat 1 winds just offshore at 35 meters per GFDL. Suggests high end tropical storm conditions near the coast. If the GFDL is correct.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

628
WHXX04 KWBC 242330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST    94L

INITIAL TIME  18Z SEP 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            31.5             74.9           235./ 1.9
   6            31.8             75.0           350./ 3.5
  12            32.3             75.6           308./ 7.6
  18            32.7             76.8           286./10.3
  24            33.4             77.1           334./ 8.1
  30            34.5             78.2           313./13.9
  36            35.1             79.9           289./15.1
  42            35.0             81.5           269./12.6
  48            34.8             82.6           255./10.0
  54            34.7             83.1           263./ 3.8
  60            34.8             83.1           354./  .9
  66            34.9             83.0            50./ 1.5
  72            35.0             82.1            84./ 7.5
  78            35.6             81.7            28./ 7.1
  84            36.0             80.6            74./ 9.8
  90            38.0             78.8            40./25.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT  90 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.