ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[orion]

Looking at radar from MHX there has been a lot of areas with some spin/twist to them. GRLevel3 is showing lots of mesocyclone action, especially in the north part of the radar echos. Looks to me like there may be some possible tornado issues in NC as well.

For those in eastern NC, or anyone else interested, I have the GRLevel3 radar loop with surface and buoy obs at: http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

But this extratropical cyclone will bring HURRICANE conditions
near the coast...so you better watch out!!!!!

[THead]

Pardon me if I'm missing something here, but where is this storm heading? All I've seen is that it is drifting west. I don't see any forecast track or anything like that. Do we know approximately where it is going? I see people mentioning it's going to be over land in 18 hours, where are we getting that info? We could REALLY use some rain here in NE Ga!

Thanks.

[orion]

Pardon me if I'm missing something here, but where is this storm heading? All I've seen is that it is drifting west. I don't see any forecast track or anything like that. Do we know approximately where it is going? I see people mentioning it's going to be over land in 18 hours, where are we getting that info? We could REALLY use some rain here in NE Ga!

Thanks.

You can find out what the models are saying here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[THead]

Pardon me if I'm missing something here, but where is this storm heading? All I've seen is that it is drifting west. I don't see any forecast track or anything like that. Do we know approximately where it is going? I see people mentioning it's going to be over land in 18 hours, where are we getting that info? We could REALLY use some rain here in NE Ga!

Thanks.

You can find out what the models are saying here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Thanks much. Don't know why that didn't occur to me to check the models!

[Stephanie]

It was pretty darn windy in Atlantic City already today - needed those two hands on the steering wheel. Tomorrow will be A LOT of fun - Nor'easter, TD or whatever this thing is.

[CrazyC83]

It was pretty darn windy in Atlantic City already today - needed those two hands on the steering wheel. Tomorrow will be A LOT of fun - Nor'easter, TD or whatever this thing is.

It won't be a TD, that is for sure. Its winds almost support a hurricane - it is just extratropical right now.

[capepoint]

I just don't think this will get tropical. Surface pressures all along NC coast are at or above 30 inches. Granted what we are getting right now is due to pressure gradient, but those pressures are pretty high.

Still have big problems though, lots of soundside flooding, water forced to west and south side of sounds by NE winds. If this system gets closer, will just pile up more water.

[Hurritrax]

Still in Nags Head and getting 28 MPH sustained and had a 39 MPH gust just a few minutes ago with a handheld anemometer right at the beach. Starting to rain a little here as of 10:10 PM.....Overwash has closed NC 12 from Oregon Inlet south to Rodanthe due to overwash at the "S" curve just south of Oregon Inlet and at Miro Beach, which is at the northern end of Rodanthe. Hwy 12 (Beach road) at MP 3 in Kitty Hawk is also experiencing overwash. Will only get worse as winds increase tonight with high tide in the morning at about 5 AM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice rotation with the deep convection.


Of course, it is over 1º North of the low level swirl.


A true tropical cyclone, if not under too much shear, might pull the LLC under the MLC/convection, but I have a feeling that isn't happening.

[HURAKAN]

24/2345 UTC 31.9N 75.0W ST2.5 94L

No change.

[Category 5]

Winds are dead still here and it is chilly. Tomorrow is promising much different.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, so it isn't particularly tropical, but sustained tropical storm force conditions at Frying Pan Shoals?


I'd expect a little more interest on a system that could still become sub-tropical, and at the very least has similar effects in the Carolinas to an actual tropical cyclone.

[txwatcher91]

Not many NC people here, so most are ignoring it. It looks a little better currently.

[tallywx]

yeah, the NC crowd is disappointingly thin here. During Hanna the thread was dead when a borderline hurricane was about to make landfall. I might as well be in California posting about what time the marine layer will burn off every morning.

[seahawkjd]

So lets keep the thread going. NC peoples unite lol. Anyway at Emerald Isle right now its pretty windy, nothing major. Waiting to see what tommorow brings.

[fig]

Pretty windy with some good gusts here in Wilmington too..just starting to rain. Seems like things will deteriorate pretty quickly tonight and into the morning. Nasty tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[emeraldislencguy]

windy here just starting to rain at emerald isle--bogue sound is higher that usual--wind has gottne a little stronger since late afternoon--rain is coming in spurts

[capepoint]

right now in Morehead City rain, wind 22 gusts to 41, pressure 29.98 falling slowly.
at least thats what my station says. BTW the 41 mph gust was the strongest so far, and recoreded it at 12:08 am. Plenty of gusts in the high 30's.
will check back in tomorrow.

[capepoint]

Ok, so it isn't particularly tropical, but sustained tropical storm force conditions at Frying Pan Shoals?


I'd expect a little more interest on a system that could still become sub-tropical, and at the very least has similar effects in the Carolinas to an actual tropical cyclone.

It seems like it is ALWAYS blowing a gale at FPS. Biggest problem here will be water already piled-up on south side of Pamlico Sound. If this intensifies, it will push more water up, worsening the flooding.