ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[NC George]

Wind picked up here in Greenville, NC earlier this evening. Blowing around 10-15 by my guess.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250545
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND BUOY AND
SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CENTER. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 140 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN
ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection reforms and if it can stay there for the next 6 hours. I say upgrade!

[Thunder44]

Convection reforms and if it can stay there for the next 6 hours. I say upgrade!

I think they are going to wait for the next plane to get in there today, before they upgrade it.

[mpic]

I went over to the models thread and it's all over the place. My parents live in Charlotte along with my sister who suffered considerable tree damage from Hugo, so I'll be watching closely. Any guess as to when the models might come closer together?

[Thunder44]

000
WONT41 KNHC 250837
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

A WELL-DEFINED EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND ALONG THE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ON FRIDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE... STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL REGIONS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...AND BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING MORE THAN 100
MILES FORM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON
D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN CENTERED ABOUT 180
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. REPORTS
FROM NEARBY SHIPS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH NORTH OF
THE CENTER. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW.
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER NORTH TODAY...THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jabber]

In Raleigh.. Nada. No wind or rain... yet.

[Lowpressure]

I went over to the models thread and it's all over the place. My parents live in Charlotte along with my sister who suffered considerable tree damage from Hugo, so I'll be watching closely. Any guess as to when the models might come closer together?

Locally Charlotte calling for gusts to 39 today and tonight with rain moving in today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My family was vacationing in Harwichport in 1980 when Hurricane Charley developed from a low on a frontal occlusion, on the 'cool' side of the boundary. Never came near Cape Cod, but did pass near Bermuda, transitioning from a Sub-TD to a Sub-TS, before becoming a minimal hurricane.

This reminds me of that, just a little.

[Lowpressure]

My family was vacationing in Harwichport in 1980 when Hurricane Charley developed from a low on a frontal occlusion, on the 'cool' side of the boundary. Never came near Cape Cod, but did pass near Bermuda, transitioning from a Sub-TD to a Sub-TS, before becoming a minimal hurricane.

This reminds me of that, just a little.

Agreed. It is 54.4 degrees here with breezy conditions and overcast. Feels much more fall like than tropical.

[HURAKAN]

192
ABNT20 KNHC 251150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT
YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS
OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Certainly no tropical system out of this low. Looked more impressive 24 hours ago when it had convection near the center. Now, quite cool air has wrapped all around and it's an extratropical storm.

Enjoy the cool air over there. It's still pretty warm i my un-powered house here in Houston. Today's my 13th day without power and I'm in a fairly heavily-populated part of the city just 10 miles from downtown. A single blown line fuse is keeping my whole neighborhood in the dark.

[HURAKAN]

The RECON has measured air temps as warm as 73.6ºF. How warm is a subtropical cyclone in its core?


Time:
12:19:30Z
Coordinates:
32.1667N 77.W
Acft. Static Air Press:
977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
175 meters (~ 574 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
996.8 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 77° at 15 knots (From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp:
23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Dew Pt:
20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[jabber]

Certainly no tropical system out of this low. Looked more impressive 24 hours ago when it had convection near the center. Now, quite cool air has wrapped all around and it's an extratropical storm.

Enjoy the cool air over there. It's still pretty warm i my un-powered house here in Houston. Today's my 13th day without power and I'm in a fairly heavily-populated part of the city just 10 miles from downtown. A single blown line fuse is keeping my whole neighborhood in the dark.

Yeah pretty cool out. High is supposed to only get to 63 today. Not what I am used to from a 'tropical' storm being originally from S. Florida. Try to stay cool..I feel your pain. I was out of power for 15 days after Frances. Not a whole lot of fun. But you will do the power came on dance I hope pretty soon.

[O Town]

[HURAKAN]

25/1145 UTC 32.0N 76.5W ST3.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

The RECON has measured air temps as warm as 73.6ºF. How warm is a subtropical cyclone in its core?


Time:
12:19:30Z
Coordinates:
32.1667N 77.W
Acft. Static Air Press:
977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
175 meters (~ 574 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
996.8 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 77° at 15 knots (From the ENE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp:
23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Dew Pt:
20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I believe warm is a relative term, warmer near the center than near the periphery.

I'm trying to tell from recon data, but they came down from altitude fairly close to the apparent center, nad haven't swung out wide yet to see if temps are cooler further from the center, and although I suspect it can be done, I am clueless on converting higher level temps to corresponding surface temps.

[Evil Jeremy]

25/1145 UTC 32.0N 76.5W ST3.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

It is a 3.0, orginized, and contains strong winds, and this is only in code orange? I don't understand why the NHC is not upgrading this.

[hurricanefloyd5]

25/1145 UTC 32.0N 76.5W ST3.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

It is a 3.0, orginized, and contains strong winds, and this is only in code orange? I don't understand why the NHC is not upgrading this.

it's stillembedded in the frontal zone that's why