ATL INVEST 94L: Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking this will be left alone and declared an unnamed (sub)tropical storm in the post-analysis.

[Jam151]

it's frontal...can't have a STS with fronts attached to it

[Category 5]

I'm thinking this will be left alone and declared an unnamed (sub)tropical storm in the post-analysis.

It's not Subtropical now and might not have enough time. This will just be considered a Coastal Storm.

[Category 5]

it probably saves a lot of typing and coordination calls with local NWS offices to let it landfall as a warm core, non frontal 60 mph un-named extra-tropical storm.

Can we please stop bashing the NHC? Recon was out there and they didn't upgrade it. These people are some of the finest mets in the world, I think they know what there doing and wouldn't not upgrade out of laziness as you're suggesting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I might have missed it looking at the HDOBs, but I didn't see wind/temp/dewpoint discontinuity near the center that suggests a surface front near the center. It seems, IMHO, to be on the cool side of whatever frontal boundary there is, but it has obviously fired enough thunderstorms to be warmer than its immediate environment.


A pro-met with the fancy GARP or AWIPs or whatever might be able to show where I'm wrong, by analyzing in a front near the center. If the temps and dewpoints on either side of the occlusion are similar, and there isn't much of a wind shift, the surface front isn't much of a front. Now, somewhere aloft a cold front may be outrunning a warm front, but if there isn't a real surface front, than the surface system, IMHO, is a sub-tropical cyclone.

Just because an analyst at HPC working in coordination with NHC has a front drawn in doesn't prove there is a front there to my satisfaction, although, of course, said analyst would have the fancy tools and professional training I lack.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

it probably saves a lot of typing and coordination calls with local NWS offices to let it landfall as a warm core, non frontal 60 mph un-named extra-tropical storm.

Can we please stop bashing the NHC? Recon was out there and they didn't upgrade it. These people are some of the finest mets in the world, I think they know what there doing and wouldn't not upgrade out of laziness as you're suggesting.

I know this board has a policy of not slagging on pro-mets, the NWS, TPC, etc., but if that extends to automatically agreeing with everything NHC says, because they are trained professionals, and most of us are just flat amateurs, well, not much point to even having discussions, and all the threads would just be pasting NHC advisories and satellite pictures, and not much more.


Again, I think something isn't quite right, but this does remind me of a pro-met's analogy to us, as non-medical professionals, standing around a doctor performing a cat scan on a patient and scoffing at his/her diagnosis. Maybe there really is a front in there somewhere, although if it is an occlusion, and there is no longer a distinct wind shift on the front at the surface, I'd argue there isn't a surface front anymore. But I would be arguing without the benefit of professional met training.


Anyway, I'd never suggest NHC doesn't upgrade systems at the behest of insurance companies, as I saw suggested on the 93L thread.

[wxman57]

Looks like an occluded low now. Occluded front is along the coast. Note all the closed-cell strato-cu out over the water south of the low center. That's some fairly cold air over the warm water. Low 70s in SE GA and northern Florida in the early afternoon? Center only 100 miles from land now and moving at a bit over 8 kts. Should be inland late tonight. Nothing at all to be gained by giving it a name at this point.

[HURAKAN]

This is a Nor'easter:



94L is not tropical but his extratropical family thinks he's an outsider!!!

[Category 5]

The door to this becoming an STS is not fully closed, but it's closing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like an occluded low now. Occluded front is along the coast. Note all the closed-cell strato-cu out over the water south of the low center. That's some fairly cold air over the warm water. Low 70s in SE GA and northern Florida in the early afternoon? Center only 100 miles from land now and moving at a bit over 8 kts. Should be inland late tonight. Nothing at all to be gained by giving it a name at this point.

Is there still a surface wind shift near the center of this along the occluded front?

Is there some definition at to what altitude the cold front is catching the warm front at which an occluded front is not analyzed at the surface without a wind shift?

Inquiring minds and all that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I do plead guilty to being influenced by JB, as I am a subscriber. I think I can safely post his latest update w/o violating my terms of service agreement

THURSDAY 1:30 PM
LOOK AT THIS:

P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 15 MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 15:13:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB SONDE RELEASED LATE IN EYE. SONDE SLP 996 MB, SFC WND 185 / 22 KTS ;

Now, why would the recon report take the time to tell TPC they released the dropsonde in the "eye"? Since when to non-tropical systems have 3C rises across the center at 5,000 and 10,000 feet, and why would the Recon people poke the hurricane center in the eye, by saying this had an eye, unless it had an eye BECAUSE IT IS A TROPICAL STORM.

By the way, it's down to 992 mb.

[Category 5]

I do plead guilty to being influenced by JB, as I am a subscriber. I think I can safely post his latest update w/o violating my terms of service agreement

THURSDAY 1:30 PM
LOOK AT THIS:

P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 15 MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 15:13:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB SONDE RELEASED LATE IN EYE. SONDE SLP 996 MB, SFC WND 185 / 22 KTS ;

Now, why would the recon report take the time to tell TPC they released the dropsonde in the "eye"? Since when to non-tropical systems have 3C rises across the center at 5,000 and 10,000 feet, and why would the Recon people poke the hurricane center in the eye, by saying this had an eye, unless it had an eye BECAUSE IT IS A TROPICAL STORM.

By the way, it's down to 992 mb.

uhh, the "Blizzard of 06" had an "eye" as well.

[CrazyC83]

I do plead guilty to being influenced by JB, as I am a subscriber. I think I can safely post his latest update w/o violating my terms of service agreement

THURSDAY 1:30 PM
LOOK AT THIS:

P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 15 MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 15:13:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB SONDE RELEASED LATE IN EYE. SONDE SLP 996 MB, SFC WND 185 / 22 KTS ;

Now, why would the recon report take the time to tell TPC they released the dropsonde in the "eye"? Since when to non-tropical systems have 3C rises across the center at 5,000 and 10,000 feet, and why would the Recon people poke the hurricane center in the eye, by saying this had an eye, unless it had an eye BECAUSE IT IS A TROPICAL STORM.

By the way, it's down to 992 mb.

uhh, the "Blizzard of 06" had an "eye" as well.

Eyes don't mean anything, since extratropical systems can also have eyes. The biggest argument is the warm core vs. frontal structure.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I do plead guilty to being influenced by JB, as I am a subscriber. I think I can safely post his latest update w/o violating my terms of service agreement

THURSDAY 1:30 PM
LOOK AT THIS:

P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 15 MAX FL WIND 59 KT N QUAD 15:13:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB SONDE RELEASED LATE IN EYE. SONDE SLP 996 MB, SFC WND 185 / 22 KTS ;

Now, why would the recon report take the time to tell TPC they released the dropsonde in the "eye"? Since when to non-tropical systems have 3C rises across the center at 5,000 and 10,000 feet, and why would the Recon people poke the hurricane center in the eye, by saying this had an eye, unless it had an eye BECAUSE IT IS A TROPICAL STORM.

By the way, it's down to 992 mb.

uhh, the "Blizzard of 06" had an "eye" as well.

Was the Blizzard over 26º water?


Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

[Category 5]

Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

I give up

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

I give up

Can't answer the question? I'd give up as well.

[Lowpressure]

Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

I give up

I agree, what is the point? We can not change his mind, and if he is correct, we can not name it.

[Category 5]

Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

I give up

Can't answer the question? I'd give up as well.

If they haven't named it because it isn't subtropical isn't enough, nothing is.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyway, if HPC analyzing an occluded front settles the matter, why doesn't NHC just cancel the mission now. What point is there flying around on a system they won't upgrade?

I give up

I agree, what is the point? We can not change his mind, and if he is correct, we can not name it.

You can change my mind by showing me actual data that supports a surface front in/very near 94L.

But on previous page, I was informed this can't be a sub-tropical storm, because HPC has analyzed an occluded front through the center. Now, just because I didn't see evidence, in my amateur perusal of the high density obs, of a front in 94L doesn't mean it isn't there.

But I'm not kidding. If HPC analysis of a front is sufficient reason to not upgrade a warm core system that otherwise seems to meet the definition for a sub-tropical cyclone, than isn't recon pointless?


Anyway, as alluded by WxMan57, it is inland tonight, and coastal flood and wind advisories should keep most mariners from sailing into a 50 or 60 knot storm in small craft, so there isn't any real damage to ignoring this for twelve hours and insisting it is just an early season Nor'Easter.