ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[RL3AO]

New style on the box and the day 4/5 points.

[alan1961]

Looks like we have sat loop outages

[Just Joshing You]

Ouch.. lovely knowing Nova Scotia is in the 3 day cone... 5 day cone yes, but their 3 day cone is pretty damn accurate.

[Cainer]

Well, looks like I have a possible hurricane heading straight to my house! I live in Yarmouth, NS, and the closest thing I've ever experienced to a hurricane was the remnants of Noel last year, which also made landfall in Yarmouth. I can deal with Kyle if it doesn't get much stronger than 75 MPH; I think Noel was around that strength when it made landfall, and all we got was some nice 20 degree weather in November (I think we set a new November record), some lighting an lots of rain. As long as Kyle doesn't become another Juan, I'm not worrying!

[CrazyC83]

Well, looks like I have a possible hurricane heading straight to my house! I live in Yarmouth, NS, and the closest thing I've ever experienced to a hurricane was the remnants of Noel last year, which also made landfall in Yarmouth. I can deal with Kyle if it doesn't get much stronger than 75 MPH; I think Noel was around that strength when it made landfall, and all we got was some nice 20 degree weather in November (I think we set a new November record), some lighting an lots of rain. As long as Kyle doesn't become another Juan, I'm not worrying!

It may very well become another Juan. Shear is supposed to decrease once it hits 30-33N.

[CrazyC83]

I like the new white circles for extratropical.

[tropicana]

Well, looks like I have a possible hurricane heading straight to my house! I live in Yarmouth, NS, and the closest thing I've ever experienced to a hurricane was the remnants of Noel last year, which also made landfall in Yarmouth. I can deal with Kyle if it doesn't get much stronger than 75 MPH; I think Noel was around that strength when it made landfall, and all we got was some nice 20 degree weather in November (I think we set a new November record), some lighting an lots of rain. As long as Kyle doesn't become another Juan, I'm not worrying!

yeah good luck there Cainer! Def. looks that Kyle may be Nova Scotia bound ( as a hurricane) and I know where Yarmouth is there on the coast, so pay close attention in the next day or so.

-justin-

[CrazyC83]

Definitely the biggest threat to Atlantic Canada since Hurricane Juan in 2003.

[wxman57]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1108W5+gif/203152W_sm.gif

that track is a disappointment to many in the NE

Why is that? Because it misses the NE U.S.?

[caribepr]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1108W5+gif/203152W_sm.gif

that track is a disappointment to many in the NE

Why is that? Because it misses the NE U.S.?

Thanks for asking because I didn't get that either...explaination por favor?

[bahamaswx]

that track is a disappointment to many in the NE

Why is that? Because it misses the NE U.S.?

Thanks for asking because I didn't get that either...explaination por favor?

Pretty sure he didn't tack on "U.S." at the end of his post for a reason.

[TYNI]

Possibly because of a need for rain in NC? Just a guess...

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Recurve]

I feel for Nova Scotia. Anyone have surge estimates for that area?

[CrazyC83]

I feel for Nova Scotia. Anyone have surge estimates for that area?

The water is fairly deep there so storm surge is usually only an issue on the immediate shoreline. I know in Hurricane Juan the surge in Halifax Harbor was about 7 feet, and due to its topography that only made it about 2 blocks inland.

[Recurve]

Thanks for that information. It seems low, which is good news. Surge penetrating only 2 blocks I assume leaves most buildings OK as far as being undermined. Any idea what conditions there were (windspeed and distance from center) for Juan?

[CrazyC83]

Thanks for that information. It seems low, which is good news. Surge penetrating only 2 blocks I assume leaves most buildings OK as far as being undermined. Any idea what conditions there were (windspeed and distance from center) for Juan?

Halifax was in the eastern eyewall so they got the maximum winds. An island in the harbor measured sustained winds around 100 mph (based on a 2-min sustained wind of 94 mph).

[Ed Mahmoud]

I feel for Nova Scotia. Anyone have surge estimates for that area?

I think Nova Scotia gets winter ocean storms that probably approach minimal Cat 1 wind speeds. I know they've had offshore storms near the Hibernia oil field sufficiently strong to have sunk sink semi-submersible drilling rigs. Google "Ocean Ranger".

[Just Joshing You]

The area around the Halifax Harbour is elevated, so don't worry about storm surge. It would take 30 feet of surge to cause major damage due to the topography.

[fci]

Since there is no thread to ask Pro Mets yet regarding Kyle; I have a question;

What interaction is expected between Kyle and 94L?
Seems like they will be pretty close to each other, well within the 700-800 miles (I think) that are said to be required for a Fujiwara effect to take place.

Can anyone who understands these dynamics answer?