ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Extratropical storms also usually have a broader wind field, with stronger winds far displaced from the actual center.

Yeah...Much larger area of strong winds. But lower one minute winds, more gusty in nature.

[Chacor]

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First of all you are wrong it is not going to be a hurricane based on Storm2k and NHC.Forecast to become a tropical storm when it hits

Last I checked, 70 kts is a Category 1 hurricane.

WELL CHECK AGAIN ON NHC IT HAS A BIG "S" OVER NOVA SCOTIA.WHICH MEAN TROPICAL STORM.

The point before landfall is 70 kt; after landfall 60 kt. It weakens due to land interaction. It does not mean it makes landfall at 60 kt; it could indeed make landfall at higher than 70 kt if it's still strengthening between that point and landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

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First of all you are wrong it is not going to be a hurricane based on Storm2k and NHC.Forecast to become a tropical storm when it hits and on top of the models can still change slightly to the east a little which may be a FISH storm.Actaully in the very first models of invest 93 which is now Kyle actaully had them pointing south of Cuba then turning north towards the southwest coast of FL which means it WAS A threat for south Florida.Wrong again about Wilma it was actually worse hear than on the west coast mentioned by many experts.They said damage at least in Boca Raton which was one of the ahrdest hit areas had cat 3 damage.Dont prove me worng because you havent been to where I live and you live 3 cities up which is a little difference.And we has winds up to 105 which was cat 2 BUT WE HAD GUST HERE up to 115 which is cat 3.And everyone is different you cant say I dont have the thrill for hurricanes anymore when I become and "ADULT".Its my hobby and will fulfill my career in meteorology and storm chasing.And when you say they cant move financially do you actually know that "Just Joshing you" cant move because of that.And yes I am caring for others but I know this storm is not going to be that serious for Canada and the rest because its just going to be a TS and it will be over colder waters once it moves north so it will weaken.

You can believe what you want, but you definitely did not experience Category 3 force winds where you are from Wilma. Perhaps in gusts as you claim, but definitely not sustained. You likely saw Cat. 1 to perhaps low end Cat. 2 force sustained winds in that region (the 105mph you stated is probably too high). 80-96mph sustained would be a better estimate.

As for the situation with the current storm, I think you need to calm down a little bit. This will be a major threat to Canada, and you cannot try to downplay it by saying it is going to be "just" a Category 1 or TS. The fact is, a Category 1 or TS can still do TONS of damage, and Just Joshing You has every right to be concerned about Kyle.

[HurricaneRobert]

It hasn't made it to hurricane strength so it is too early to determine if those estimates are conservative or liberal. It could go either way.

[Derek Ortt]

Dude "Just Joshing you" you need to chill out and not get so mad. First of all I said fish storm and I meant that it won't touch the US but I didnt say that cananda wont get hit because look at my earlier comment and it said that it will go up towards Canada so I didnt mean it literally for everyone.Second of all I never said I wanted any storm to hit me like I want it to happen.I just said that okay Kyle was a false alram for Florida and thought it was going to come towards us.Dude chill out your going to make it through this storm its just going to be a cat 1 the maximum or lower intensity.I have been hit by a cat 3...3 years ago and Im still alive.So dont freak OUT!HEhe my name is HurricaneFREAK!Cause hurricanes amaze me and its my hobby so U KNOW WHAT I LOVE IT WHEN HURRICANES COME CAUSE IT AMAZES ME THE POWER IT HAS AND I want to become a storm chaser when I grow up.So if you HAVE A PROBLEM WITH ME "LIKING HURRICANES TO HIT ME" LIKE U SAID !THEN DEAL WITH IT!MOVE SOMEWHERE ELSE IF YOU DONT WANA GET HIT BY HURRICANES!

A few comments for you, Hurricane Freak:
- Just Joshing need not "chill out" He faces a hurricane and should be concerned.
- A fish storm by definition does not hit land. Canada is land and for you to portray Kyle as fish storm is simply wrong
- Kyle was NEVER a threat to South Florida. You are completely incorrect in making that statement
- If you live now where you lived 3 years ago you did not get hit by a Cat 3. Wilma was a cat 1 maybe a cat 2 when she hit US in South Florida
- Take a look at areas that have been through Cat 1's. Power outages, damage, blue tarps ..... Look at South Florida from Wilma, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina all of which affected some areas as a Cat 1.
- You obviously don't own a home or a business and live the effect of a Hurricane. When I was a kid I thought that they were cool too. When I grew up to be a responsible adult the thrill was gone.
- Not everyone has the luxury of just "moving somewhere else" to avoid storms. They are born somewhere or there for employment and may not financially be able to just move on a whim.

I think you should be more sensitive to the seriousness of Hurricanes and other's feelings.

furthermore, the CONUS is in the cone, and a vulnerable part of the CONUS at that

[ROCK]

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First of all you are wrong it is not going to be a hurricane based on Storm2k and NHC.Forecast to become a tropical storm when it hits and on top of the models can still change slightly to the east a little which may be a FISH storm.Actaully in the very first models of invest 93 which is now Kyle actaully had them pointing south of Cuba then turning north towards the southwest coast of FL which means it WAS A threat for south Florida.Wrong again about Wilma it was actually worse hear than on the west coast mentioned by many experts.They said damage at least in Boca Raton which was one of the ahrdest hit areas had cat 3 damage.Dont prove me worng because you havent been to where I live and you live 3 cities up which is a little difference.And we has winds up to 105 which was cat 2 BUT WE HAD GUST HERE up to 115 which is cat 3.And everyone is different you cant say I dont have the thrill for hurricanes anymore when I become and "ADULT".Its my hobby and will fulfill my career in meteorology and storm chasing.And when you say they cant move financially do you actually know that "Just Joshing you" cant move because of that.And yes I am caring for others but I know this storm is not going to be that serious for Canada and the rest because its just going to be a TS and it will be over colder waters once it moves north so it will weaken.

You can believe what you want, but you definitely did not experience Category 3 force winds where you are from Wilma. Perhaps in gusts as you claim, but definitely not sustained. You likely saw Cat. 1 to perhaps low end Cat. 2 force sustained winds in that region (the 105mph you stated is probably too high). 80-96mph sustained would be a better estimate.

As for the situation with the current storm, I think you need to calm down a little bit. This will be a major threat to Canada, and you cannot try to downplay it by saying it is going to be "just" a Category 1 or TS. The fact is, a Category 1 or TS can still do TONS of damage, and Just Joshing You has every right to be concerned about Kyle.

I agree EWG....BTW- we missed you here in Houston when we got our first taste of true cat1 winds......it was nasty.....and devestating.

[Sanibel]

Closer to my 15-9-4 prediction now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

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First of all you are wrong it is not going to be a hurricane based on Storm2k and NHC.Forecast to become a tropical storm when it hits and on top of the models can still change slightly to the east a little which may be a FISH storm.Actaully in the very first models of invest 93 which is now Kyle actaully had them pointing south of Cuba then turning north towards the southwest coast of FL which means it WAS A threat for south Florida.Wrong again about Wilma it was actually worse hear than on the west coast mentioned by many experts.They said damage at least in Boca Raton which was one of the ahrdest hit areas had cat 3 damage.Dont prove me worng because you havent been to where I live and you live 3 cities up which is a little difference.And we has winds up to 105 which was cat 2 BUT WE HAD GUST HERE up to 115 which is cat 3.And everyone is different you cant say I dont have the thrill for hurricanes anymore when I become and "ADULT".Its my hobby and will fulfill my career in meteorology and storm chasing.And when you say they cant move financially do you actually know that "Just Joshing you" cant move because of that.And yes I am caring for others but I know this storm is not going to be that serious for Canada and the rest because its just going to be a TS and it will be over colder waters once it moves north so it will weaken.

You can believe what you want, but you definitely did not experience Category 3 force winds where you are from Wilma. Perhaps in gusts as you claim, but definitely not sustained. You likely saw Cat. 1 to perhaps low end Cat. 2 force sustained winds in that region (the 105mph you stated is probably too high). 80-96mph sustained would be a better estimate.

As for the situation with the current storm, I think you need to calm down a little bit. This will be a major threat to Canada, and you cannot try to downplay it by saying it is going to be "just" a Category 1 or TS. The fact is, a Category 1 or TS can still do TONS of damage, and Just Joshing You has every right to be concerned about Kyle.

I agree EWG....BTW- we missed you here in Houston when we got our first taste of true cat1 winds......it was nasty.....and devestating.

Yeah, that's what I heard. I have been talking to people who live right by where I used to live and they still do not have power. As much as I like extreme weather, I am actually really glad that I did not have to suffer through the nearly 2 week power outage. That would have been a horrible experience!

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

First visible pic.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best Track mantains the intensity at 50kts.

AL, 11, 2008092612, , BEST, 0, 260N, 687W, 50, 997, TS

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even if fish storm somehow exempts Canada, even by that odd definition, the usually reliable GFDL has landfall on the US side of the Maine/Canada border.

81% of Reliant's customers have electricity again. Still some traffic lights out along my commute; some flashing red, some just dark, some damaged. And I'm pretty certain we never got over Cat 1 sustained in my parts. And there are homes with holes in their roofs around.

Pretty sure I'd never want to see winds any higher than that where I lived...

[wxman57]

Just looking at Kyle's appearance on satellite and the great amount of shear indicated in its path, I'm not so sure it'll reach hurricane strength. More good news for the NE U.S. is that the SW shear should keep all of Kyle's squalls with the higher winds east of the track. The western side that brushes Cape Cod may not have much wind at all. It may take a significant shift in the track westward to put New England into TS force winds. That's certainly a possibility.

Oh, and today marks the 2-week anniversary of having no power at my home due to Ike. Haven't even seen a utility truck in the neighborhood for 8 days now - after they powered up 1 street of my neighborhood then left.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looking at Kyle's appearance on satellite and the great amount of shear indicated in its path, I'm not so sure it'll reach hurricane strength. More good news for the NE U.S. is that the SW shear should keep all of Kyle's squalls with the higher winds east of the track. The western side that brushes Cape Cod may not have much wind at all. It may take a significant shift in the track westward to put New England into TS force winds. That's certainly a possibility.

Oh, and today marks the 2-week anniversary of having no power at my home due to Ike. Haven't even seen a utility truck in the neighborhood for 8 days now - after they powered up 1 street of my neighborhood then left.

GFDL has TS winds on Eastern Cape, however it also has Kyle has a bordelrine Cat 1/Cat 2.

You are one of the special 19% of Houstonians still in the dark. I hope you appreciate how special that is.

[CrazyC83]

Shear in the path is about 20 kt and decreasing.

[bzukajo]

Wow...you still do not have power!....Incredibly we never lost power at the Baylor/MD Anderson housing complex. (We did loose a roof though). That night, I remember seeing so many transformers blowing in purple/blue flash. I agree with Ed Mahmoud...I do not think I want to see sustained winds higher than what I saw in Houston at about 4:00 AM that Saturday. Now that I am back in Massachusetts I have been keeping a close eye on Kyle. I am glad to see it heading more easts.

I told my girlfriend the night of Ike in Houston, that if we saw winds like that in Massachusetts, it would be devastating with all the tall trees we have here. I also remember thinking about this as I flew into providence, looking down at the lush green hills, with dents in the foliage, hinting that there are houses under the canopy. If those winds were sustained here, I think two weeks of no power would be a minimum!

[wxman57]

Wow...you still do not have power!....Incredibly we never lost power at the Baylor/MD Anderson housing complex. (We did loose a roof though). That night, I remember seeing so many transformers blowing in purple/blue flash. I agree with Ed Mahmoud...I do not think I want to see sustained winds higher than what I saw in Houston at about 4:00 AM that Saturday. Now that I am back in Massachusetts I have been keeping a close eye on Kyle. I am glad to see it heading more easts.

I told my girlfriend the night of Ike in Houston, that if we saw winds like that in Massachusetts, it would be devastating with all the tall trees we have here. I also remember thinking about this as I flew into providence, looking down at the lush green hills, with dents in the foliage, hinting that there are houses under the canopy. If those winds were sustained here, I think two weeks of no power would be a minimum!

My wife just called - CenterPoint trucks are in the back yard and down the street assessing the work to get us back online.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wow...you still do not have power!....Incredibly we never lost power at the Baylor/MD Anderson housing complex. (We did loose a roof though). That night, I remember seeing so many transformers blowing in purple/blue flash. I agree with Ed Mahmoud...I do not think I want to see sustained winds higher than what I saw in Houston at about 4:00 AM that Saturday. Now that I am back in Massachusetts I have been keeping a close eye on Kyle. I am glad to see it heading more easts.

I told my girlfriend the night of Ike in Houston, that if we saw winds like that in Massachusetts, it would be devastating with all the tall trees we have here. I also remember thinking about this as I flew into providence, looking down at the lush green hills, with dents in the foliage, hinting that there are houses under the canopy. If those winds were sustained here, I think two weeks of no power would be a minimum!

My wife just called - CenterPoint trucks are in the back yard and down the street assessing the work to get us back online.

Our powerline easement is in our backyard, but thank goodness, the poles are in neighbors yards. Our section of powerline avoided the falling trees, so no problems. But I always wondered what they would do for damage. Bulldoze down the fences between people's houses to get back there? Our back fence separates us from a densely wooded section of a natural gas lease, so they'd have to bulldoze something somewhere to get big trucks in.