WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HurricaneRobert]

The pinhole eye...

[Chacor]

Indeed this is up to 90 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 17.7N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 20.5N 124.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 281200UTC 22.2N 121.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 291200UTC 23.8N 119.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[HURAKAN]

Powerful storm. Jangmi is one of the few storms that reach their Nirvana every year around the world.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I know one shouldn't make big assumptions on visual presentation but if that's STILL a Cat.2 then someone please smack me sideways because that looks like a full blown Cat. 4 monster.

[CrazyC83]

I know one shouldn't make big assumptions on visual presentation but if that's STILL a Cat.2 then someone please smack me sideways because that looks like a full blown Cat. 4 monster.

That 90 kt estimate is 10-min sustained. The last JTWC estimate was from 6 hours ago, but my guess is about 110 kt for 1-min sustained.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I know the 90 knots are 10-min sustained but I'm quite sure Jangmi's packing more than 100 knots even on 10 min sustained. Your one minute sustained 110 knots might be a bit closer to the actual truth.

No doubt they'll up it again.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 18:30:00 N Lon : 127:14:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 923.5mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well that would support at the very least a high end Cat 3 in the Atlantic.

[P.K.]

Up to T6.5 from RSMC Tokyo so they have increased the winds to 100kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 18.6N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 20.6N 123.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 281800UTC 22.6N 120.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 291800UTC 24.5N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[CrazyC83]

Up to T6.5 from RSMC Tokyo so they have increased the winds to 100kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 18.6N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 20.6N 123.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 281800UTC 22.6N 120.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 291800UTC 24.5N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

That supports 125 kt for 1-min winds (T6.5 combined with other available data).

[apocalypt-flyer]

Have I mentioned this will not only be grim in Taiwan if this track proves to be orrect but also for the Xiamen/Zhangzhou area in China. Low lying in the Dragon-river delta with more than 10 million people in the area.

[P.K.]

Looking at the other agencies right now the CMA say 55m/s (107kts) and the KMA 99kts. The last PAGASA advisory was 44m/s (86kts) but that was 7 hours ago. The HKO were also at 176km/h (95kts) at the same time as the last PAGASA advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Given all the data, I agree with 125 kt for the current intensity now (on our standards).

[RL3AO]

Looks like this might be the storm of the season for the WPac.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:53:59 N Lon : 127:03:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 915.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.9N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.8N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.7N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.7N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.0N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 126.6E.
TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, TY 19W HAS
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY WITH A 28 NM EYE AND INTENSE DEEP CORE
CONVECTION EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES JUMPED TO 6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING BUT LEFT SLIGHTLY UNDER SUPER TYPHOON (STY)
STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z.//
NNNN

[apocalypt-flyer]

I'm quite glad that last few 'this is far stronger than blah blah' rants were not completely off.

They have this slamming right into Taiwan now. We'll see whether jtwc keeps shifting the track towards the right or not.

[Crostorm]

Typhoon 19W




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 19:02:35 N Lon : 126:55:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.2mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.7 6.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HurricaneRobert]

This could end up as the first category 5-strength storm of 2008.

[Crostorm]