ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Nice looking storm.

[HURAKAN]

Bad Kyle.

[wxman57]

High-res visible loop clearly shows the convection being pushed farther NE of the exposed LLC now. I really have my doubts that Kyle will become a hurricane. And I doubt that current winds are near 60 mph. Even the NHC discussion said all estimates were that Kyle's winds were 50 mph, but they kept it at 60. I think Kyle may have just as good a chance of ripped apart by shear as of becoming a hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Something weird looking happened to the center. It either died, and redeveloped a bit to the Northeast, a bit closer to the convection, or it just scooted itself closer to the convection.


I actually think JB's theory, that because this is weak today, it comes further West, towards Cape Cod, may be wrong, as it instead looks like the center may keep trying to follow the sheared convection further East.

But I don't know that for certain.

[Frank2]

...and, per SHIPS it's not forecast to be much more than a depression by 120 hours, so, I won't give my Aunt a call (she lives just south of the Maine/Nova Scotia border)...

I'd have to disagree with the NHC forecast on this one - it doesn't seem likely to become a hurricane, at least in my opinion...

[Ed Mahmoud]

High-res visible loop clearly shows the convection being pushed farther NE of the exposed LLC now. I really have my doubts that Kyle will become a hurricane. And I doubt that current winds are near 60 mph. Even the NHC discussion said all estimates were that Kyle's winds were 50 mph, but they kept it at 60. I think Kyle may have just as good a chance of ripped apart by shear as of becoming a hurricane.

55 knot unflagged SFMR, but it seemed rather lonely among the other obs...

[Ed Mahmoud]

...per SHIPS it's not forecast to be much more than a depression by 120 hours, so, I won't give my Aunt a call (she lives just south of the Maine/Nova Scotia border)...

Does SHIPs handle extra-tropical transition well?

[Frank2]

I don't know...

[Frank2]

...but, from what I'm seeing so far, it has been known to do reasonably well...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know...

GFS with landfall of a fairly unimpressive system East of the border, in Canada, has ~30 knot winds at Bar Harbor. Not too different from a good Nor'Easter.



ETA: I'd trust the globals more than SHIPs for a system likely to be extra-tropical, but keeping in mind they may be a shade on the weak side, due to coarse grid scale resolution. But that's just me.

[Frank2]

Yes, many a strong winter low in the North Atlantic has topped (or gone below) 970 mb, so, this would be much weaker than that...

In fact, some surface countour maps during the winter months often look like a giant onion ring, given the intensity of North Atlantic low pressure systems, so, much stronger than Kyle is forecast to be...

...though I'm sure Jim Cantore is already at Hartsfield International Airport (LOL)...

[HURAKAN]

Kyle is feeling the winds. Exposed.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe there has indeed been a center relocation?

[RL3AO]

Watch out Egypt!

[Brent]

Watch out Egypt!

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure if I would go with the Recon estimates yet (63 kt FL, 55 kt SFMR both supporting a 55 kt intensity). The pressure has not changed (maybe rose a bit) so I'm a bit skeptical on them. I'd hold at 50 kt right now.

[Sanibel]

Annular naked swirl.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If VDM 1007 mb is correct, this is one sick puppy.

[CrazyC83]

If VDM 1007 mb is correct, this is one sick puppy.

I saw a dropsonde like an hour ago on the NOAA plane estimate around 998mb. Also the winds haven't dropped so I'm not sure about the pressure.

Also, a dropsonde measured 1010/37 (supports 1007mb there) more than 90 miles from the VDM center, so it is hard to imagine the pressure being the same in both areas.

[wxman57]

Looks like a 40-45 kt sheared TS now.