ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS at 12Z is barely East of the border into Canada. I think the NHC is quite prudent with the watches.

[CrazyC83]

I believe Edouard in 1996 was the last time Maine was under a hurricane watch

Ahhhh how could I forget that one - I was IN Maine at the time! (Although I was on vacation and was scheduled to return home that day, hurricane or no hurricane - and it definitely did not verify but given the circumstances was prudent)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Irene 1999 was the last tropical storm to hit Maine, before that Josphine 1996. The last hurricane to hit was Bob 1991.

If this goes 50 miles west of the nhc track this will hit as a hurricane to.

How able to handle a hurricane is maine???

Irene went nowhere near Maine, Matt

The last TS in Maine was Bob in 1991 (weakened while crossing MA)

Last true Tropical storm to hit Maine was Bertha in 1996


Floyd 1999 was also TS force, but 100% extratropical by the time it impacted Maine/

[CrazyC83]

Gloria was the last hurricane to impact Maine? (Although I'm not sure if it was still hurricane-force at that point)

[Derek Ortt]

Gloria was well west of Maine

maybe all the way back to 1969 with the F storm

[CrazyC83]

Other hurricanes I could find hitting Maine:

#10 "Saxby Gale" 1869 (85 kt)
#6 1869 (70 kt)
#7 1944 (65 kt)
Edna 1954 (70 kt)
Donna 1960 (70 kt)
Gerda 1969 (90 kt)

[CrazyC83]

78 kt FL winds found = 66 kt at the surface. If the SFMR finds higher winds, we have Hurricane Kyle.

[terstorm1012]

Maine's experienced nor'easters far worse then Kyle's impact will be.

[CrazyC83]

64 kt SFMR found - I think we have a hurricane given its convective structure and recon data.

[CrazyC83]

Make that 74 kt and they still haven't got that close to the center yet. I'd expect a Tropical Cyclone Update between 3:00 and 3:30 pm.

[Thunder44]

79kt FL wind and 74kt SFMR now reported. Interesting these reports are far from the center.

[CrazyC83]

79kt FL wind and 74kt SFMR now reported. Interesting these reports are far from the center.

Those combined support an intensity around 70 kt. They'll probably wait for the VDM before upgrading though. It will most likely be a brief Tropical Cyclone Update.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde: 995/18 - probably 994mb for current pressure.

[CrazyC83]

I just got this message from the Canadian Hurricane Centre: Hurricane watch issued for SW Nova Scotia.

[wxman57]

79kt FL wind and 74kt SFMR now reported. Interesting these reports are far from the center.

And interesting that SFMR continues to give surface winds higher than FL winds, like with the other storms this year. Clearly, some work needs to be done with SFMR calibration. And the fact that the winds are being reported so far from the center is quite suspicious. I don't think Kyle's a hurricane, and I think the NHC continues to overestimate surface winds.

[Thunder44]

79kt FL wind and 74kt SFMR now reported. Interesting these reports are far from the center.

And interesting that SFMR continues to give surface winds higher than FL winds, like with the other storms this year. Clearly, some work needs to be done with SFMR calibration. And the fact that the winds are being reported so far from the center is quite suspicious. I don't think Kyle's a hurricane, and I think the NHC continues to overestimate surface winds.

Well the met on the plane also observed 74kt winds. They have used it once before, with this storm.

[CrazyC83]

79kt FL wind and 74kt SFMR now reported. Interesting these reports are far from the center.

And interesting that SFMR continues to give surface winds higher than FL winds, like with the other storms this year. Clearly, some work needs to be done with SFMR calibration. And the fact that the winds are being reported so far from the center is quite suspicious. I don't think Kyle's a hurricane, and I think the NHC continues to overestimate surface winds.

Well the met on the plane also observed 74kt winds. They have used it once before, with this storm.

I'd go with 65-70 kt as a blend of the values.

[Cainer]

Well, we finished making our preparations for Kyle. New batteries in the flashlights, plants outside tied down, ect. Kind of surreal having to make hurricane preparations after only ever reading about them. Unfortunately, our house is right on the ocean, and Kyle is supposed to hit at high tide. Our basement has flooded before; hopefully it wont again. Anyway, I will keep you all posted on Kyle's effects on Yarmouth as long as I have power. Ill try to take some pictures of the aftermath on Monday if I can as well.

Oh, it has also been very rainy and windy today, too, from the remnants of 94L. A couple streets were already flooded. I guess it's a mixed blessing that Kyle will be moving so fast; higher winds, but at least we wont get drenched. I think we're only expected to get another 50-100 mm. I have no idea what that is in inches .

[wxman57]

79kt FL wind and 74kt SFMR now reported. Interesting these reports are far from the center.

And interesting that SFMR continues to give surface winds higher than FL winds, like with the other storms this year. Clearly, some work needs to be done with SFMR calibration. And the fact that the winds are being reported so far from the center is quite suspicious. I don't think Kyle's a hurricane, and I think the NHC continues to overestimate surface winds.

Well the met on the plane also observed 74kt winds. They have used it once before, with this storm.

Observed 74 kts how? Dropsonde? SFMR? SFMR is clearly reading a good 10-15% too high (or more), as was discussed at the last AMS conference. Don't you find it suspicious that SFMR keeps reporting significantly higher winds than at FL?

[Thunder44]

And interesting that SFMR continues to give surface winds higher than FL winds, like with the other storms this year. Clearly, some work needs to be done with SFMR calibration. And the fact that the winds are being reported so far from the center is quite suspicious. I don't think Kyle's a hurricane, and I think the NHC continues to overestimate surface winds.

Well the met on the plane also observed 74kt winds. They have used it once before, with this storm.

Observed 74 kts how? Dropsonde? SFMR? SFMR is clearly reading a good 10-15% too high (or more), as was discussed at the last AMS conference. Don't you find it suspicious that SFMR keeps reporting significantly higher winds than at FL?

Yeah, I've mentioned this stuff before. But some of the SFMR reports of hurricane force winds I saw were more believeable. They weren't higher than at flight level.