ATL LAURA: Models

[artist]

[HenkL]

IMO it is a cut-off low, with a nice backbent occlusion wrapped around. If it had enough time, it could make it into a STS or even TS. But after drifting a bit west tomorrow, most models let it turn north into the polar front. I don't give this system much chance.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

621
WHXX04 KWBC 282318
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST    95L

INITIAL TIME  18Z SEP 28

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            37.0             44.0           270./ 9.9
   6            37.2             45.2           276./ 9.7
  12            37.2             46.5           273./ 9.6
  18            37.3             47.2           275./ 6.4
  24            38.0             47.8           321./ 7.8
  30            38.5             48.1           328./ 6.0
  36            39.4             48.1             3./ 9.1
  42            40.3             48.0             3./ 9.1
  48            41.3             47.9             8./10.0
  54            42.5             47.9             0./12.3
  60            43.3             47.9             2./ 7.8
  66            44.2             47.2            40./ 9.7
  72            45.4             46.4            32./13.7
  78            46.5             45.2            48./13.5
  84            48.0             43.7            46./18.0
  90            49.8             41.7            47./22.7
  96            51.4             38.8            61./24.2
 102            53.0             34.7            70./29.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



[El Nino]

It has 2-3 days to be STS or TS. After that ... but who knows it won't go to the East and then go backwards ?

[Thunder44]

706

WHXX01 KWBC 291219

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1219 UTC MON SEP 29 2008



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURA (AL122008) 20080929 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

080929 1200 080930 0000 080930 1200 081001 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 37.1N 47.6W 37.2N 48.7W 38.3N 47.6W 40.7N 46.4W

BAMM 37.1N 47.6W 37.9N 49.1W 39.6N 49.2W 41.6N 48.9W

SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 56KTS 58KTS

DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 56KTS 58KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

081001 1200 081002 1200 081003 1200 081004 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 43.1N 45.8W 47.5N 41.5W 51.1N 30.1W 53.3N 10.3W

BAMM 43.3N 48.5W 46.8N 44.7W 48.5N 34.1W 47.7N 18.8W

SHIP 60KTS 66KTS 79KTS 77KTS

DSHP 60KTS 66KTS 79KTS 77KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 37.1N LONCUR = 47.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 36.7N LONM12 = 45.7W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 37.0N LONM24 = 42.5W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 50KT

CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 240NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 150NM RD34NW = 180NM



$$

NNNN

12z runs for today. Although it says "Tropical Cyclone Laura", it said that on the 6z runs too. So it doesn't necessarily mean NHC is going to call it a TS on the next advisory.

[HenkL]

I don't give this system much chance.

Clearly a wrong judgment 12 hours ago

[apocalypt-flyer]

Could easily become one of the first bigger Autumn storms in Europe seven days from now.

[CrazyC83]

Latest GFS has it at about 942mb off the coast of Norway (as an extratropical monster).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro has 850 mb winds over 50 knots in 5 days into the UK and Northwest Europe...




Obviously not tropical anymore, but still vigorous.