#8 Postby RattleMan » Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:36 pm
206
WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280621Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.8N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.8N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.7N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.3N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A MORE DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT IMAGERY AND SURFACE WIND DATA
STILL DEPICT A BROAD LLCC AND THE CURRENT LLCC WAS OBSERVED ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY (AND QUICKLY) AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MOTION WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION SUPPORTED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
XISHA DAO INDICATE 15-20 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND
SLP NEAR 997 MB. AFTER TAU 36, THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING A WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD HAINAN AND VIETNAM. TD 20W IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THEN LAND
INTERACTION NEAR TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 280621Z SEP 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 280630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z
AND 292100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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