EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

080
WHXX01 KMIA 291239
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC MON SEP 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912008) 20080929 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080929 1200 080930 0000 080930 1200 081001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 94.6W 11.3N 95.8W 11.6N 97.0W 12.0N 98.5W
BAMD 10.9N 94.6W 11.4N 96.2W 11.9N 98.1W 12.7N 99.9W
BAMM 10.9N 94.6W 11.3N 96.1W 11.9N 97.9W 12.6N 99.9W
LBAR 10.9N 94.6W 11.5N 95.9W 12.5N 97.6W 13.6N 99.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081001 1200 081002 1200 081003 1200 081004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 100.1W 14.6N 102.9W 17.0N 105.6W 18.1N 108.1W
BAMD 13.5N 101.8W 15.1N 104.0W 17.0N 104.8W 20.0N 105.7W
BAMM 13.5N 101.9W 15.5N 104.7W 17.2N 106.1W 18.8N 107.5W
LBAR 14.9N 100.3W 17.2N 100.6W 20.7N 98.7W 25.6N 94.9W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 55KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 94.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 93.8W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 92.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



¡HOLA MEXICO!

[Chacor]

This isn't new. The old thread was archived after the invest was deactivated.
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=103369

[AnnularCane]

So I'm not crazy and there really was a 91E a little while ago? Why isn't this 92E then?

[Chacor]

So I'm not crazy and there really was a 91E a little while ago? Why isn't this 92E then?

It's the same invest area.

[HURAKAN]

29/1145 UTC 10.7N 95.1W TOO WEAK 91E -- East Pacific Ocean



Floater 91E: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float6.html

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

EP, 91, 2008092912, , BEST, 0, 109N, 946W, 25, 1006

[Chacor]

So I'm not crazy and there really was a 91E a little while ago? Why isn't this 92E then?

It's the same invest area.

Or it isn't. This is weird.

[cycloneye]

Its not in the same area as the old 91E was,10N, 133W.

[cycloneye]

Maybe,the explanation is that the old 91E became 96C in the CPAC ?

[Chacor]

Nope, 96C and the old 91E were different areas that existed around the same time.

[HURAKAN]

24 to 36 hours? It better get working to meet the deadline.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN ELONGATED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[HURAKAN]

29/1745 UTC 10.5N 95.3W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Ptarmigan]

Many Texas WFO think this could give Texas rain next week.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

240
ABPZ20 KNHC 301137
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN ELONGATED AND
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ONLY
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

30/1145 UTC 10.6N 96.8W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Looking a little better organized.

[HURAKAN]

524
ABPZ20 KNHC 301757
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO HAVE AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH