WPAC HIGOS: Tropical Storm - Discussion

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WPAC HIGOS: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:18 am

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 141.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH OF YAP.
RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL TURNING.
A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD, AS DEPICTED
PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY IMAGES, WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 05 TO 10 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH THE BULK OF MODERATE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:24 am

Floater 3: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat3.html

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#3 Postby Chacor » Sun Sep 28, 2008 9:43 am

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 28, 2008 8:42 pm

Image

WTPN22 PGTW 281700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280621Z SEP 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 280630)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 137.1E TO 12.1N 130.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 281600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 136.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
138.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KOROR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATES SLOW
CONSOLIDATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCAT-
ED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. A 280922Z SSMI
37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATED WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND HINTS AT A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM KOROR AND YAP INDICATED SLP NEAR 1008 MB WITH 2 TO 2.5 MB
24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WITH HIGHER WINDS REPORTED AT YAP BUT
CURRENTLY ESE AT 10-15 KNOTS. OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRON-
MENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
CENTER AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291700Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 112.4E.//
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Re: WPAC Invest 99W : Discussion - TCFA

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 28, 2008 9:08 pm

28/2030 UTC 8.5N 133.2E T1.5/1.5 99W -- West Pacific Ocean
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#6 Postby Chacor » Sun Sep 28, 2008 9:10 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 282358

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 8.4N

D. 132.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (28/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPPED .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 2.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELDED 2.0. DBO MET AND PT.

SCANLIN
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Re: WPAC Invest 99W : Discussion - TCFA

#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:43 am

Some 35-40 knot winds base on quickscat...Also the LLC is elongated, but closed. I expect this to have a very high chance of developing. Maybe into a strong tropical storm or typhoon.
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#8 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:30 am

WTPN33 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281651Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 8.7N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 9.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 11.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.2N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.7N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 130.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 8 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 281651Z SEP
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 281700 ). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 19W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL STORM 20W
(MEKKHALA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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#9 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:33 am

WWJP25 RJTD 290600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 09.1N 130.9E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 168E 45N 168E
50N 180E 38N 180E 35N 173E 39N 168E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 988 HPA AT 58N 167E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 39N 146E EAST 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N 123E TO 31N 129E 32N 136E 32N 143E 33N 150E
35N 160E 43N 180E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0815 JANGMI (0815) 985 HPA AT 26.4N 121.1E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0816 MEKKHALA (0816) 990 HPA AT 16.6N 110.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#10 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:37 am

P-3 flight was cancelled due to a compressor problem.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:34 am

Image

JTWC: TS 21W
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#12 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 9:34 am

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 09.0N 129.1E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

PAGASA have named this TD Pablo.
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Re: WPAC Depression (21W): Discussion

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:39 pm

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Pablo pounding the Philippines.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:42 pm

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Link: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/
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#15 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Mon Sep 29, 2008 6:23 pm

Looks like a major rainfall event for the Philippines.
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#16 Postby Chacor » Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:47 pm

Named by JMA: Higos.

WTPQ22 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0817 HIGOS (0817) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 11.0N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 13.4N 124.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 020000UTC 15.5N 121.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 030000UTC 18.2N 118.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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#17 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:30 am

TPQ22 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0817 HIGOS (0817)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 11.6N 126.4E POOR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 13.9N 123.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 020000UTC 15.5N 121.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 030000UTC 18.2N 118.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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#18 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:09 am

WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0817 HIGOS (0817)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 12.9N 124.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 15.2N 120.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 021200UTC 18.1N 117.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 031200UTC 19.9N 116.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

It was 40 kt earlier, so it has weakened a bit from land interaction.
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#19 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:08 am

WTPQ22 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0817 HIGOS (0817)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 13.2N 124.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 15.6N 120.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 021200UTC 18.1N 117.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 031200UTC 19.9N 116.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 30, 2008 2:11 pm

Image

Philippines not allowing Higos to get any better organized.
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