Area Of Disturbed Weather In Western Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Looks weak right now.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase in the Western Caribbean. Can we change title to "Western Caribbean" This area should be a code yellow at least within the next couple of days. For sure this is the area to WATCH for development:

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM (yeah its the NAM but it has been very consistent): 84 hours shows a tropical system approaching Southern Florida from the southwest (classic October hit):

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Western Caribbean disturbance
Thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure over the Western Caribbean waters are weak and disorganized. However, the NOGAPS and UKMET models are predicting this activity may start to organize by Saturday or Sunday, so we will need to watch the Western Caribbean this week. If a tropical depression did develop, it would likely stay in the Western Caribbean for a number of days, moving very slowly.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

Brings back memories:

[Blown Away]

If this develops it seems to be a classic setup for SFL. I think the NHC will be moving their "Code Yellow" down to this area at 2pm.

I think we can change the subject title to "Western Caribbean Disturbance" now, I don't think there is any confusion w/ the Yucatan low discussion anymore.

[Frank2]

Probably too soon for a yellow - perhaps tomorrow, if it persists...

[gatorcane]

Probably too soon for a yellow - perhaps tomorrow, if it persists...

should be code yellow by 2PM EST or a TWO later today. The area that the NHC has yellow over has not persisted hence the NHC should move the code area southward.

[captain east]

If this develops it doesn't look good for FL or Cuba since it will probably be a slow moving storm in these VERY warm W Car. Waters

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301800
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[tina25]

[gatorcane]

NHC shifts yellow cone southward into the NW Caribbean for the 2PM EST TWO, as expected...

I'm very curious about the NHC statement of "Upper-level winds are not favorable." That is true for the EGOM and Western Atlantic...

But check out the large anticyclone building of the Western Caribbean....I betcha the next few TWOs focus more on the Western Caribbean and mention slow development is possible

Look at that anticyclone of very calm UL winds over the Western Caribbean and notice the wind shear tendency is negative for the Western Caribbean (classic October pattern right now):

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

what I'm thinking is that the models that develop an area in the Western Caribbean are probably seeing the origins from a tropical wave that should be entering the Western Caribbean in 72-84 hours.....

The interaction of this wave and the disturbed area on the tail end of that front may be enough to ignite something...

[Blown Away]

I'm very curious about the NHC statement of "Upper-level winds are not favorable." That is true for the EGOM and Western Atlantic...

The N part of the giant grapefruit "Code Yellow" polygon has unfavorable winds and the S portion seems to be favorable. I expect the polygon to be reduced to include the W Caribbean area only and not the EGOM and parts of SFL as this trough passes. I don't expect the moisture from the W Caribbean to move much over the next few days. IMO, if this develops there will be a high probability of this impacting SFL. Being almost October, the W Caribbean looks ripe for a tropical system.

[GCANE]

Somebody please show me how NHC sees an UL-Low at 18N 80W?

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N80W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN.

[Rainband]

This actually has an equal chance of affecting the western central Penn. It's that time of year.

[Cyclenall]

Western Caribbean disturbance
Thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure over the Western Caribbean waters are weak and disorganized. However, the NOGAPS and UKMET models are predicting this activity may start to organize by Saturday or Sunday, so we will need to watch the Western Caribbean this week. If a tropical depression did develop, it would likely stay in the Western Caribbean for a number of days, moving very slowly.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

Brings back memories:

Wouldn't it be something if Marco became just like the 1996 Marco? That would mean we have repeated the 1996 Bertha, 2002 Kyle to a strech, and then this.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
Convection really popping around that low near 18N/81W, maybe this upper low will begin building towards the surface.

[Blown Away]

What if Marco went to Marco Island Florida, could happen. I remember back in 1996 thinking the same thing.