Area Of Disturbed Weather In NW Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[Blown Away]

Convection building again this morning in the NW Caribbean area. Should be "Code Yellow" today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[jinftl]

Definitely an area to keep an eye on..the convection has a 'look' about it...but not sure if it will persist or if the environment is conducive to development at least in the short-term.

[boca]

When I see convection down there with a tail on it I get interested even more.Their seems to be alot of popcorn type convection down there.Something might pop down in the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Well we were discussing this area in the Central Caribbean thread (that I tried to get it changed to Western Caribbean).

Anyway, I was wondering why the NHC took down the code yellow off this area last night. It will be back up in a TWO later today or tomorrow. I think the NHC should have left it up...

This area bears watching for sure, shear is very light:

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, the global models are seeing something out in this area over the next few days, but it is either disorginized or weak:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

It could touch off but if it does it is already past Florida eastward on the trough.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ohh good another WC thread..LOL

[xironman]

Maybe something going on around Cozumel?

[tailgater]

JMHO but, I think there will be something forming down there in the near future. Dry air and shear may keep it in check but I think a TD at least will form and probably scoot Ne or Ene.
My opinion. NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yeah, if anything Florida would get something out of this, IF anything.

[tina25]

No Code Yellow as of 2pm.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM LAURA...WHICH HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM just out. Here we go at 84 hours

[smw1981]

Are the storms clustered enough to form? They look a little spread out... (just curious)

[captain east]

It's like a endless wave of rain, why can't winter come sooner?

[Rainband]

It's the NAM

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is concerned about another tropical threat for the GOM. He stated the GOM must me watched as the ghost of 1985 shows as the chief analog year.

[Rainband]

But it's JB Just kidding. Hopefully the season is over

[KatDaddy]

Me to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The NW and N GOM has to be done for this season. This is the one time I hope Joe B is hype. He has had a rough forecast this year.

[Ivanhater]

GFS brings the system into the western gulf after crossing the yucatan with a deep trough coming...setup very similar to Opal and around the exact time..though thats if anything forms