Area Of Disturbed Weather In NW Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[KatDaddy]

You can have all the excitement IvanHater. Interesting Ivan was replaced by Ike.......if memory serves me correct.

[jinftl]

Parts of coastal Maine were under a hurricane watch last weekend....nothing is impossible in the Gulf(granted...much less likely....but it stinks when storms beat the odds..usually not a good outcome).

Me to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The NW and N GOM has to be done for this season. This is the one time I hope Joe B is hype. He has had a rough forecast this year.

[Ivanhater]

You can have all the excitement IvanHater. Interesting Ivan was replaced by Ike.......if memory serves me correct.

ivan was 2004 so Ike wouldnt have replaced Ivan ,the I storm in 2010 would I believe

[HURAKAN]

Ike 2008 replaced Isidore 2002.

Igor (2010) replaced Iván 2004.

[KatDaddy]

Hmmmmm....yes you are correct IvanHater. Isidore was 2002.

[Nimbus]

Burst of convection west of Jamaica this evening. The air sure is dry to the north over Florida, is that why the NHC does not have this area flagged as yellow potential development?

[gatorcane]

A weak low has formed in the NW Caribbean as suggested by this recent surface plot:

[jinftl]

If I had to place an "L" anywhere on the map in October to get floridians to pay it notice...I would put it pretty much right where that one is.......let's hope the dynamics for real development just aren't there.....and won't be.

A weak low has formed in the NW Caribbean as suggested by this recent surface plot:

[O Town]

Lots of convection still going on this morning.

[jinftl]

Compare satellite O Town just posted vs. satellite from 24 hours ago....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe an invest by tomorrow?

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

code yellow will be back up on this area before all is done and I do expect the NHC to indicate "slow development is possible..."

[KUEFC]

gatorcane, sorry i am a long long time lurker here, but why is it that everytime i see a post from yourself, you always seem to want something to happen?, i have been lurking here around about 2 years and thats the impression i get from yours and some other peoples posts.

[HURAKAN]

The area continues to look very disorganized. I mean, there is no organization whatsoever. At this point development is possible but not likely in the next 48 to 72 hours. I highly doubt the NHC will talk about it until it begins to show signs of development. Still, in October this is the area to look for development.

Looking at the buoys in the area, pressures are not falling, which indicates that nothing is trying to form at the surface except if it's trying to form closer to land.

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

[Sanibel]

Weak formation ESE of Roatan on coast of Honduras.


Engrained in trough that goes over to EPAC.

[HURAKAN]

Sanibel, I see what you're talking about but it's very close to land.

[tailgater]

latest surface obs

[gatorcane]

There is definitely come cyclonic turning just east of Belize and north of Honduras. I'd expect an invest here over the next 24-48 hours. Steering currents are going to remain weak in this area so if anything forms I wouldn't expect it to move much over the next several days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[KUEFC]

There is definitely come cyclonic turning just east of Belize and north of Honduras. I'd expect an invest here over the next 24-48 hours. Steering currents are going to remain weak in this area so if anything forms I wouldn't expect it to move much over the next several days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

You really, really want something to form dont you?