Area Of Disturbed Weather In NW Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[Rainband]

if anything happens its going to be slow. If anything happens..

[gatorcane]

Buoy 42057 winds have come around to the S and SSW over the past couple of hours after being E or ESE for several hours before. This stations is about 75-100 miles ESE of where the surface low is plotted. A surface low seems to be present WNW of this station and is becoming more pronounced.

10 03 1550 SSW 7.8 9.7 2.0 6 3.8 - 29.91 +0.05 82.6 85.8 74.8 - - -
10 03 1450 S 13.6 19.4 2.0 6 3.8 - 29.90 +0.07 81.5 85.8 75.6 - - -
10 03 1350 SE 9.7 13.6 2.3 6 3.7 - 29.87 +0.06 85.3 85.6 76.1 - - -
10 03 1250 SE 9.7 11.7 2.0 6 3.7 - 29.86 +0.06 84.4 85.5 76.8 - - -
10 03 1150 SE 11.7 13.6 2.0 6 3.7 - 29.83 +0.04 84.0 85.5 75.6 - - -
10 03 1050 SE 9.7 11.7 2.0 6 3.7 - 29.81 - 84.0 85.5 75.7 - - -
10 03 0950 SE 11.7 13.6 2.0 6 3.7 - 29.80 - 83.8 85.5 75.7 - - -
10 03 0850 SE 11.7 15.5 1.6 5 3.7 - 29.79 -0.02 84.0 85.5 75.6 - - -
10 03 0750 SSE 7.8 11.7 1.6 6 3.9 - 29.80 -0.03 83.7 85.5 76.5 - - -
10 03 0650 SE 9.7 11.7 1.6 6 3.9 - 29.80 -0.04 83.8 85.5 75.7 - - -
10 03 0550 SSE 7.8 9.7 1.6 6 4.0 - 29.81 -0.04 83.3 85.5 75.4 - - -
10 03 0450 SE 9.7 11.7 1.6 6 4.7 - 29.83 -0.01 83.8 85.5 75.7 - - -
10 03 0350 ESE 5.8 7.8 1.6 6 4.7 - 29.85 +0.04 83.3 85.5 76.3 - - -


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN HONDURAS
AND WESTERN CUBA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH A UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

well the NHC seems to be putting money in the models which don't develop this area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, the pressure at Roatan stopped rising...

Code: Select all

Roatan, Honduras 
(MHRO) 16-19N 086-31W 2M 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Conditions at  Oct 03, 2008 - 01:00 PM EDTOct 03, 2008 - 12:00 PM CDTOct 03, 2008 - 11:00 AM MDTOct 03, 2008 - 10:00 AM PDTOct 03, 2008 - 09:00 AM ADTOct 03, 2008 - 08:00 AM HDT
2008.10.03 1700 UTC 
Wind  from the W (270 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Temperature  78 F (26 C) 
Dew Point  75 F (24 C) 
Relative Humidity  88% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa) 
ob  MHRO 031700Z 27003KT 9999 BKN016 BKN080 26/24 Q1012 VCSH SE HZ NOSIG 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
24 Hour Summary   
 Time
EDT (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather
Latest 1 PM (17) Oct 03 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) W 3 
 Noon (16) Oct 03 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) Calm 
 11 AM (15) Oct 03 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) Calm rain
 10 AM (14) Oct 03 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) SW 13 
 9 AM (13) Oct 03 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) Calm 
 8 AM (12) Oct 03 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) Calm 
 7 AM (11)  No Data   


[gatorcane]

I have to say I disagree with the NHC on this TWO. I don't disagree with them often but I do think Avila seems to have a negative bias on both areas, probably because like I said, no models are support development of both areas.

But SAT images and surface observations recently are pointing at something trying to organize in the NW Caribbean.
I think its going to be our next invest still.

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow:

well the NHC seems to be putting money in the models which don't develop this area.

Canadian and GFS both show Pacific development not too terribly far from the NW Carib, and if they are correct, nothing will develop until the Pacific cyclone clears the area.


Edit to change "NW Pac" to Northwest Carib. Anyway, what I meant, a proximate East Pac cyclone will keep the Western Caribbean quiet.

[Frank2]

The GFS doesn't show anything:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500p_10d.html

[gatorcane]

Latest:

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be just a weak surface low.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see it on the NRL site but NHC has it at a invest with no #.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[Just Joshing You]

It's an internal invest.

[gatorcane]

I think even NWS Miami is a bit surprised the models do nothing with this system:

snippt:

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE
INTO ITS LAST DAY TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE REASSERTING ITSELF OVER THE WEEKEND
BUILDING BACK ACROSS FLORIDA. THE H7 AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TODAY EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, BUT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NAM TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS BY SATURDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. INTERESTINGLY, NONE OF THE MODELS DO MUCH WITH
THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA, AND TPC HAS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF FORMATION AT THE PRESENT TIME.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[RL3AO]

I don't see it on the NRL site but NHC has it at a invest with no #.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Thats not the NHC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Latest:

On that image I see a clear surface circulation with convection building on
the east side of the circulation, and a vigorous band of convection further east.
I expect slow development, there is no shear and we already have a surface low
with mild convection around it and deep convection nearby to the east and west.

Gatorcane, we definitely need to keep a close eye on this and so does all of Florida.

[Sanibel]

Weak naked surface Low near 17.8N-86.7W under shear drifting W.

This feature should blow off allowing the Tobago disturbance to better form.

If not we may see a slow developer out of this bursting wave.

[boca]

Its interesting that the NHC forecasts this area to move west against climatology which would normally favor a north or northeast direction.I'm assuming that their taking into account the high pressure building in would force this westward into the Yucatan.So far I don't see any indication of westward movement.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not that it counts for anything, but I'm not impressed.

[Rainband]

The NHC has been pretty accurate this year, so I will go with them.

[jinftl]

Keep in mind that this is not an invest yet...not sure how impressive it should be looking given that....what we have is some degree of disturbed weather in any area that is climatologically a 'hotspot' for development in october. But location is not everything for tropical systems.... the upper air pattern has to be conducive, etc.

Any talk of development begins at the end of the weekend timeframe...and obviously it is not a certainty.


Per Dr. Jeff Master's:

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and there should be little motion of the system over the next three days. Heavy rain from the disturbance has already moved into the Cayman Islands, and will begin to affect northern Honduras, western Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days. None of the computer models develop this disturbance. However, with wind shear expected to stay in the moderate 10-15 knot range through Sunday, and the upper level winds expected to take on an anticyclonic flow, I give this disturbance a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1111&tstamp=200810