EPAC MARIE: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a Minimal Cane as we speak...

No question.

[HURAKAN]

It looks like a beautiful hurricane.

[RattleMan]

EP, 14, 2008100318, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1221W, 65, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 45, 40, 0, 0, 1008, 210, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 14, 2008100318, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1221W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 210, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 032033
TCDEP4
HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...NORMALLY CORRESPONDING TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE T4.0...65 KT...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE.
GENERALLY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST NEAR MARIE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE
CONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE SSTS AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
CHANGE. HIGH RESOLUTION SST MAPS SUGGEST THAT MARIE IS OVER A WARM
RIDGE...BUT WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN A
DAY OR SO...LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

MARIE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE NEW FORECAST STILL SHOWING A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT OF MARIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD THEN CAUSE A
FASTER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE ECMWF
IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER SLOWING A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. IN GENERAL THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST WEST
OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 17.6N 122.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.7N 122.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 17.9N 122.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.2N 123.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 127.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Eye becomes more established in IR and Marie looks stationary at the moment.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 040246
TCDEP4
HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

GOES-10 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MARIE HAD A
WELL-DEFINED BUT SMALL 12 NM WIDE EYE AROUND 2100 UTC...AND THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WAS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO YIELD A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF T4.5 AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE
HAS FILLED SOMEWHAT AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS
CIRCULAR AND SQUEEZED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. 0000 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T4.0...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 65 KT EVEN THOUGH MARIE COULD HAVE BEEN
A LITTLE STRONGER FOR A SHORT TIME.

MARIE HAS HIT THE BRICK WALL OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN
IT AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RECENT SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN
A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND TURN TO THE WEST WILL COMMENCE AFTER 48
HOURS ONCE MARIE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER TRADES. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...AT
THE TIME WHEN MARIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE NORTH BUT
THEN RE-CONVENES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 72-120 HOURS.

WITH MARIE HAVING MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE CONTENDING WITH SELF-INDUCED COLD UPWELLING. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY MARGINAL AT 26C...AND THE 20C ISOTHERM...A
PROXY FOR THE THERMOCLINE...IS ONLY ABOUT 50 METERS DEEP AT MARIE'S
LOCATION. THESE COLD UPWELLED WATERS MAY PROHIBIT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
KEEPS MARIE AS A 65-KT HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN LINE
WITH VIRTUALLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...MARIE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THE NHC FORECAST WEAKENS
MARIE TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 4 AND A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
MODELS...INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE
MARIE BEFORE DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.9N 122.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 123.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.6N 124.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 125.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 041433
TCDEP4
HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

MARIE LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
LESS CONCENTRATED CLOUD MASS NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH WEAKER DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT IN LINE WITH
TAFB/SAB ESTIMATES...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS AFTER
LOOKING AT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES. MARIE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STABLE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALREADY WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION. THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 000/2....BUT IT IS HARD TO
DETERMINE NOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED. ONLY A SLOW
MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LONG AS MARIE REMAINS
IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF MARIE
ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. LATER ON...THE
CYCLONE MAY ACQUIRE A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL
NOT HAVE ENOUGH VERTICAL DEPTH TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...LIKE THE HWRF/NOGAPS/GFDN SOLUTIONS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS THE
ONLY MODEL YESTERDAY TO ACCURATELY FORECAST THE RECENT SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 18.4N 122.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 18.9N 122.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 19.1N 123.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 19.3N 125.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

MARIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS
STARTING TO RESEMBLE A TYPICAL WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
OVER COOLER WATERS. A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER RATHER COOL
SSTS INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MARIE WILL BECOME UNGLUED FASTER
THAN SHOWN BELOW...WHICH WOULD BE THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
SHIPS/LGEM.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 000/2.
BY LATE TOMORROW THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IN TWO OR THREE DAYS...THE
GFDL/ECMWF/UKMET SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS
THE LARGE-SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY...PERHAPS
PARTIALLY DUE TO TD 15-E. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/HWRF/
NOGAPS...SHOW LESS INTERACTION AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH...AND I
DON'T SEE A GOOD REASON TO GO AGAINST THAT GUIDANCE AS THIS STORM
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO MOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE UKMET.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 18.5N 122.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 18.7N 122.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 18.9N 123.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 18.9N 125.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 18.5N 127.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTPZ34 KNHC 050244
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

...MARIE STILL WEAKENING...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.9 N...122.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

WTPZ44 KNHC 050251
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

MARIE IS SUCCUMBING TO THE EFFECTS OF COLDER WATER AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE...AND THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A 45-KT ADT ESTIMATE FROM
UW-CIMSS AT 0000 UTC. DEGENERATING EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES
LIKE MARIE TEND TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THEY ENCOUNTER A
HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SINCE THEY CANNOT MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS
MARIE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS
FAST AS THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WOULD ALLOW SHOULD THE DEEP CONVECTION
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
48 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THEN. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BY DAY 5.

MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ALL DAY BUT MAY BE FINALLY MAKING A
SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT 335/3. A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MARIE'S CIRCULATION IS ADVECTED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT CORRECTLY ANTICIPATED THE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONCE
MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP
SOUTHWARD...AND IN SOME CASES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN...BETWEEN
72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS DRAMATIC...BUT TRENDS
TOWARD A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DISSIPATION WITHIN THE ITCZ
BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 18.9N 122.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 19.0N 122.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 123.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 124.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 18.9N 125.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0000Z 18.2N 127.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0000Z 17.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 051438
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MINIMAL
AND IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED
TO 35 KT. HOWEVER THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHEN AN ASCAT
PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 40 KT SO THE LATTER
VALUE IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH MARIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE STABLE AND DRY AIR THAT THE
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. MARIE IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 2 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS FORECAST...ICON. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MARIE
COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

AFTER THE MAINLY NORTHWARD TREK OBSERVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 270/2. ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR A DEEP TROPICAL
CYCLONE...MARIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DEEP SYSTEM. IN FACT...SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECOUPLING OF MARIE WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD AND EVEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF NORBERT WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS AND IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.9N 122.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 122.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.8N 123.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.6N 124.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1200Z 17.7N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1200Z 17.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

489
WTPZ44 KNHC 052037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ITS CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
SINCE THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER MARIE ALSO SUPPORTED AN
INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED USED FOR THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MARIE IS NOT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONTINUED GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
INTO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND MARIE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO REMNANT
LOW STATUS IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONSENSUS...ICON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST
DRIFT...160/3. AS MARIE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG 25N-30N WEST OF 120W WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH WESTWARD STEERING. INSTEAD...
MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT MARIE OR ITS LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF
NORBERT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
HINTS AT SUCH A TRACK BY TURNING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
LEFT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARIE LEFT TO DEAL WITH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.8N 122.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.7N 123.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 125.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

119
WTPZ44 KNHC 060242
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN
TO 2.0...OR 30 KT. HOWEVER...MARIE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW 35 KT. MARIE WILL BE KEPT AS A
35-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY THAT IT
HAS INDEED WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO INGEST INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO ITS
CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS INDICATED BY THE VARIOUS
SHIPS MODEL PARAMETERS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO
PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MARIE TO A
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36
HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

FIXES FROM AN 1812 UTC ASCAT PASS AND 2335 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATE
THAT MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS OR SO AT 250/3. AS MARIE SPINS DOWN...IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALMOST EVERY DYNAMICAL
MODEL INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF MARIE WILL BE DRAWN
IN SOME WAY BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NORBERT OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN AT THAT
POINT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES DISSIPATION WITHIN THE
ITCZ BY DAY 4. ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.4N 123.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 124.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 17.7N 125.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008

...MARIE DISSIPATING...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST OR ABOUT 930
MILES...1500 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIE IS DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT
LOW...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...18.9 N...123.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MARIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Crostorm]

Maria still allive

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161155
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 16 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. REDEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART