ATL: Marco : Tropical Storm - Model Runs

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ronjon
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ATL: Marco : Tropical Storm - Model Runs

#1 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:46 pm

Here are the first model runs on 96L.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L: Model Runs

#2 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:03 am

The link in the post above appears to be for the East Pac. There were no models run on 96L overnight, apparently. Here are the runs from yesterday afternoon. Generally, the BAM runs are worthless at this latitude and in a dynamic environment, but the general idea of BAMS/BAMM of taking the disturbance west and inland into Mexico on Tuesday does match the GFS's forecast.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L: Model Runs

#3 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:31 am

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#4 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 05, 2008 10:43 am

Bam-Deep does a sharp recurve to the east...fascinating....wonder
if any troughs will be in play or else this will go to mexico...
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L: Model Runs

#5 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 05, 2008 11:22 am

I made a mistake in calling for a N turn yesterday. :oops:

96L went under the weak trough remnant.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L: Model Runs

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:16 pm


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC MON OCT 6 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081006 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081006 0000 081006 1200 081007 0000 081007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 91.7W 19.3N 94.1W 20.2N 96.2W 20.8N 98.3W
BAMD 18.5N 91.7W 19.4N 93.8W 20.3N 95.6W 21.3N 96.9W
BAMM 18.5N 91.7W 19.4N 94.0W 20.2N 95.9W 21.0N 97.6W
LBAR 18.5N 91.7W 19.4N 93.4W 20.6N 94.9W 21.8N 96.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081008 0000 081009 0000 081010 0000 081011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 100.8W 21.5N 107.2W 23.2N 111.5W 24.2N 112.6W
BAMD 22.0N 97.9W 22.5N 99.4W 24.2N 100.8W 29.2N 94.6W
BAMM 21.4N 99.4W 22.2N 103.5W 24.5N 105.8W 27.5N 103.7W
LBAR 22.9N 97.8W 25.4N 99.3W 28.3N 98.8W 32.6N 93.4W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 48KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 91.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 90.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L: Model Runs

#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:32 am

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 061249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON OCT 6 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081006 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        081006  1200   081007  0000   081007  1200   081008  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  93.7W   19.5N  95.8W   20.0N  97.8W   20.1N 100.1W
BAMD    18.9N  93.7W   19.7N  95.6W   20.4N  97.2W   21.0N  98.6W
BAMM    18.9N  93.7W   19.5N  95.7W   20.0N  97.6W   20.3N  99.7W
LBAR    18.9N  93.7W   19.8N  95.2W   21.0N  96.6W   22.2N  97.9W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        081008  1200   081009  1200   081010  1200   081011  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.3N 102.8W   21.9N 108.5W   23.8N 112.8W   24.9N 115.0W
BAMD    21.2N  99.8W   21.8N 102.1W   23.9N 102.9W   29.0N  95.9W
BAMM    20.6N 102.0W   22.4N 106.3W   25.4N 107.7W   29.6N 103.0W
LBAR    23.1N  98.9W   25.3N 100.1W   28.8N  98.5W   33.8N  91.4W
SHIP        44KTS          51KTS          51KTS          44KTS
DSHP        27KTS          30KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.9N LONCUR =  93.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  18.5N LONM12 =  91.7W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  18.2N LONM24 =  90.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L: Model Runs

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 06, 2008 9:46 am

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 061413
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1413 UTC MON OCT 6 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE THIRTEEN (AL132008) 20081006 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        081006  1200   081007  0000   081007  1200   081008  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  93.7W   19.5N  95.8W   20.0N  97.8W   20.1N 100.1W
BAMD    18.9N  93.7W   19.7N  95.6W   20.4N  97.2W   21.0N  98.6W
BAMM    18.9N  93.7W   19.5N  95.7W   20.0N  97.6W   20.3N  99.7W
LBAR    18.9N  93.7W   19.8N  95.2W   21.0N  96.6W   22.2N  97.9W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          42KTS          48KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          31KTS          28KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        081008  1200   081009  1200   081010  1200   081011  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.3N 102.8W   21.9N 108.5W   23.8N 112.8W   24.9N 115.0W
BAMD    21.2N  99.8W   21.8N 102.1W   23.9N 102.9W   29.0N  95.9W
BAMM    20.6N 102.0W   22.4N 106.3W   25.4N 107.7W   29.6N 103.0W
LBAR    23.1N  98.9W   25.3N 100.1W   28.8N  98.5W   33.8N  91.4W
SHIP        52KTS          57KTS          55KTS          45KTS
DSHP        27KTS          30KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.9N LONCUR =  93.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  18.5N LONM12 =  91.7W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  18.2N LONM24 =  90.1W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

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Re: ATL: Marco : Tropical Storm - Model Runs

#9 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:49 pm

GFDL short circuited on this one.
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