8 (edit- now tonight) days to first major Fall severe outbr

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
437 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WARD COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL CRANE COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 434 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ROYALTY...
OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF MONAHANS...MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TUBBS CORNER...

Nice radar signature on this cell

I worked a Summer in Monahans, TX. Just inside the Chihuahuan desert. Not too many people to be potentially affected.


Did get a Severe T-Storm Watch for West Central Texas tonight. In effect 3 more hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

DFW area...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NERN TX ACROSS ERN
OK AND FAR WRN AR/SERN KS...

...SRN PLAINS...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...WHICH CONSISTS
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS- ONE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ANOTHER EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SRN MOST IMPULSE
HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM CENTRAL
TX INTO CENTRAL OK/SWRN AND CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ON WV IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS OK/KS/NRN
TX...WHICH WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND N-S INVOF I-35 FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
N-CENTRAL TX BY LATE TODAY.

DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY
STRONG SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KMS/ SUGGESTS EVEN MODEST
HEATING WILL INCREASE RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS- INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THIS LEADING ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY
STORMS...NEARER THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AS MODEST
HEATING/INSTABILITY OCCURS WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
150-250 M2/S2...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KT. GIVEN LARGE LOW
LEVEL RH/LOW LCLS AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN EVOLVE. ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2008

[Extremeweatherguy]

The sun is trying to come out now behind first line of showers in OKC. This sunshine will probably help to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the cold front, which means the severe threat could be going up. SPC Day 1 outlook looks good right now...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Storms just East of I-35 from extreme Southern Oklahoma into North Texas will have CAPE above 1000 Joules/Kg to work with, per RUC.

4 pm Paris, TX forecast sounding. Not a super-whammydyne sounding, CAPE is decent but not stupendous, some shear, but nothing to get exciting about, but at least isolated severe should be possible.

[somethingfunny]

My dog woke me up during heavy rain at about 5:30 this morning. Had me worried something worse was coming, but I think she was just confused because it hasn't rained here in quite some time, and she can't remember what she had for breakfast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TXC001-213-070215-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0055.000000T0000Z-081007T0215Z/
HENDERSON TX-ANDERSON TX-
841 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
ANDERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 841 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALESTINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SPOTTERS CONFIRMED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR
MONTALBA.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BOIS D`ARC AND BRADFORD BY 900 PM CDT
BRUSHY CREEK...ELMWOOD...AND ELMTOWN BY 910 PM CDT

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've gotten gas near Buffalo, and admired the humongous steam shovel looking drag lines that produce Texas coal to help power the nation. When the Cowboys played the Bills about 15 years back in the Super Bowl, city fathers changed the name of the city for one week to "Blue Star".

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FREESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN LEON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR JEWETT..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BUFFALO BY 915 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3164 9595 3147 9576 3129 9615 3144 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 231DEG 24KT 3137 9613

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not even a mesoscale discussion from SPC, and a 2% tornado risk on the current SWODY1

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
917 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JACKSONVILLE...
SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WHITEHOUSE...TYLER...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 911 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BULLARD...OR ABOUT 16 MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BULLARD BY 940 PM CDT...
WHITEHOUSE BY 1000 PM CDT...
TYLER BY 1005 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not severe, but a nice squall line moving through HOU area now. We need the rain.