Last Significant ATL TC about a week away?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double Post from "Season Winding Down" thread

Don't know why all the abusing on Frank2.


That said, both Canadian and GFS at 0Z suggests a cyclone developing rather late in the year in the MDR, likely a fish, and lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean in a region of light shear and weak steering.

GFS, but Canadian looks very similar:


Euro also on board...



This section in addition to what was double posted

Euro cyclone gets stronger as it slowly drifts North towards Cuba, then perhaps (beyond model time frame) Miami?



Considering lower resolution of GFS, it has a very similar forecast to the Euro at tau 240



Interesting stuff...

[Sanibel]

Interesting Ed. We'll see. Thanks you and Cycloneye for your long range model work.

[Just Joshing You]

Is there model support for the large low pressure off Nova Scotia?

[Frank2]

Thanks, Ed, for your sincere comment - I guess, as my Mom used to say, "the truth hurts"...

Without even reading their comments, as someone who worked in the weather business for a fair portion of my life, and, has hopefully learned right from wrong, it's convinced me that my comments on this board are mostly falling on deaf and/or hostile ears, so, time for me to move on to a site with more sensible posters...

Take care,

Frank

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks, Ed, for your sincere comment - I guess, as my Mom used to say, "the truth hurts"...

Without even reading their comments, as someone who worked in the weather business for a fair portion of my life, and, has hopefully learned right from wrong, it's convinced me that my comments on this board are mostly falling on deaf and/or hostile ears, so, time for me to move on to a site with more sensible posters...

Take care,

Frank

I like having someone around with old school NHC experiences...

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Euro has a much weaker system than the 0Z run, and takes it near Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and out into the Atlantic over the Bahamas.

GFS has a large area of sub-1008 mb low pressure in the SW Caribbean, but nothing organized.



So, 12Z a little less excited than 0Z, but it may swing back.

[artist]

Frank, Please don't let a few bad apples run you off. They win if you leave. You have offered alot of great input here. Don't let them win.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks, Ed, for your sincere comment - I guess, as my Mom used to say, "the truth hurts"...

Without even reading their comments, as someone who worked in the weather business for a fair portion of my life, and, has hopefully learned right from wrong, it's convinced me that my comments on this board are mostly falling on deaf and/or hostile ears, so, time for me to move on to a site with more sensible posters...

Take care,

Frank

I hope you reconsider...

[wyq614]

I visited ECWMF website and found that it forecasts something huge to develop in the SW Caribbean within 10 days and will move north-northeast and make landfall in Cuba, Is it really possible? Or I may have to go to Severe Weather Check-in in a few days' time as I'm studying in Cojimar, Cuba.

[Sanibel]

That patchy convection down in the West Atlantic/Caribbean makes it look like there's still some juice down there.

(I'm on the back porch with a laptop looking at a wicked down cloud off a thunderstorm)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro continues trend of slower and weaker on possible Caribbean TC. GFS is persistent in lowering pressures days 5 through 7 in the SW Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Good test to see the crow content of the model programs.

[hial2]

I visited ECWMF website and found that it forecasts something huge to develop in the SW Caribbean within 10 days and will move north-northeast and make landfall in Cuba, Is it really possible? Or I may have to go to Severe Weather Check-in in a few days' time as I'm studying in Cojimar, Cuba.

Do you have unlimited internet access and can browse any site? Just curious..

[Ed Mahmoud]

I visited ECWMF website and found that it forecasts something huge to develop in the SW Caribbean within 10 days and will move north-northeast and make landfall in Cuba, Is it really possible? Or I may have to go to Severe Weather Check-in in a few days' time as I'm studying in Cojimar, Cuba.

Do you have unlimited internet access and can browse any site? Just curious..

ECMWF.int has a limited amount of free stuff, enough to see a TC developing in the Caribbean. Since run pictured below, EC has backed off some...

[CajunMama]

wyq614 is in cuba right now ed. He'll be there until next june.

[Ed Mahmoud]

wyq614 is in cuba right now ed. He'll be there until next june.

I saw that thread. Extra reason to keep an eye on the SW Caribbean and Cuba.

[terstorm1012]

Thanks, Ed, for your sincere comment - I guess, as my Mom used to say, "the truth hurts"...

Without even reading their comments, as someone who worked in the weather business for a fair portion of my life, and, has hopefully learned right from wrong, it's convinced me that my comments on this board are mostly falling on deaf and/or hostile ears, so, time for me to move on to a site with more sensible posters...

Take care,

Frank

Please don't go, Frank. I enjoy your comments.

[Ed Mahmoud]

wyq614 is in cuba right now ed. He'll be there until next june.

I saw that thread. Extra reason to keep an eye on the SW Caribbean and Cuba.

Maybe he can live blog future Tropical Cyclone Nana for us...

[wyq614]

I visited ECWMF website and found that it forecasts something huge to develop in the SW Caribbean within 10 days and will move north-northeast and make landfall in Cuba, Is it really possible? Or I may have to go to Severe Weather Check-in in a few days' time as I'm studying in Cojimar, Cuba.

Do you have unlimited internet access and can browse any site? Just curious..

Yes, I do. We use satellite signal, although we're in Cuba, our IP address is from Sao Paolo, Brazil. So I think I can have unlimited access.

[Fego]

I visited ECWMF website and found that it forecasts something huge to develop in the SW Caribbean within 10 days and will move north-northeast and make landfall in Cuba, Is it really possible? Or I may have to go to Severe Weather Check-in in a few days' time as I'm studying in Cojimar, Cuba.

Do you have unlimited internet access and can browse any site? Just curious..

Yes, I do. We use satellite signal, although we're in Cuba, our IP address is from Sao Paolo, Brazil. So I think I can have unlimited access.

!Vicente! amigo, hola. I'm glad you are doing good. From the Olympics to Cuba jejeje.. !nice!
By the way, the ECWMF and the CMC are smelling something.