SIO Zone of Disturbed Weather 01R (93S): Discussion

[wyq614]

EC develops it, but the intensity will be limited (no more than 20m/s)

[Chacor]

From 1300Z:
TROPICAL LOW 1006 HPA NEAR 09S 75E .MOVEMENT ALMOST STATIONARY.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S 76.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT
IN A 060417Z AMSU-B PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS
JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.

[wyq614]

has been categorized as Zone of Perturbation 01 by RSMC Reunion. But it will be no more than a Tropical Depression. maybe Reunion takes ECWMF forecast as reference.

ZONE PERTURBEE 01-20082009

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1006 HPA.
POSITION LE 06 OCTOBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 12.6 SUD / 75.3 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-QUINZE DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2270 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 22 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.9S/71.6E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 14.4S/67.5E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 16.6S/64.6E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Change the topic, please? It's Zone of Disturbed Weather 01R.

From 1200z:

WTIO30 FMEE 061213

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20082009
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1
2.A POSITION 2008/10/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 75.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/07 00 UTC: 13.6S/73.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/07 12 UTC: 13.9S/71.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/10/08 00 UTC: 14.1S/69.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/10/08 12 UTC: 14.4S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/10/09 00 UTC: 15.5S/66.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/10/09 12 UTC: 16.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0-
WITHIN A LARGE FLUCTUATING AND INORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AREA
EXISTING NORTH OF 16S AND EAST OF 73E, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED
WITHIN THE LAST 12 HOURS IN A LITTLE CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPING AROUND
THE LLCC MONITORED SINCE A FEW DAYS (CF AMSU 89 GHZ 0442Z METOP AND 0851Z
NOAA18 SWATHS)
..
OUTSIDE OF THE LAST NIGHT ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT SWATHS , WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 20KT REACHING 25KT AND VERY LOCALLY 30KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMETAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE HIGHER THAN
USUAL SO MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 HPA.
VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS LIGHTLY FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND RATHER GOOD DIVERGENCE) BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY LIMITED LINKED TO A POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW FORECASTED TO WEAK
TOMORROW AS A POLAR TROUGH SHIPPING IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK GLOBAL
LY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS WITHOUT DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

[Chacor]

Meteo France have now removed 01R from their active warnings. That was certainly short-lived.

[Chacor]

And it's back on...

WTIO30 FMEE 071221

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20082009
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1
2.A POSITION 2008/10/07 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 72.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/08 00 UTC: 13.7S/70.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/10/08 12 UTC: 14.7S/68.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/10/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/66.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/10/09 12 UTC: 17.3S/64.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/10/10 00 UTC: 17.2S/62.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2008/10/10 12 UTC: 17.0S/58.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=1.5-
CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/7. OVERALL PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCALISATED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT SWATHS OF THIS MORNING SHOW SOME WEAK WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER IN THE 05/15 KT RANGE. THEY REACH 20/25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI
CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM IS GENEROUSLY ANALYSED AT 20 KT ...
CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/7

AS SST ARE UNDER THE 26oC THRESHOLD SOUTH OF 13S AND THE ENVIRONMENTALS
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE, THIS LOW HAS QUASI NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CURVE THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE STRENGHEN SOMEWHAT. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLL
OW THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE EUROPEAN AND FRENCH MODEL CONSENSUS, JUST A
LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH.
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD BE INTERESTED BY A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS,
ASOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM, STARTING FROM THURSDAY FOR
RODRIGUES ISLAND AND FROM FRIDAY FOR THE MAURICE / REUNION AREA.
AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY , SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

[HURAKAN]

07/1430 UTC 13.8S 73.1E T2.0/2.0 93S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZOCT2008//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
75.32E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 080610

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20082009
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1
2.A POSITION 2008/10/08 AT 0600 UTC :
14.0S / 70.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 15 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/10/08 18 UTC: 14.1S/69.2E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
24H: 2008/10/09 06 UTC: 14.8S/68.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2008/10/09 18 UTC: 15.4S/66.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER LOCALISATED AT MORE THEN 70 MN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS.
QUIKSCAT SWATH OF THIS MORNING SHOW SOME WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE 05/15 KT RANGE. THEY REACH 20/25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE
TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

AS SST ARE UNDER THE 26oC THRESHOLD SOUTH OF 13S AND THE ENVIRONMENTALS
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE, THIS LOW HAS QUASI NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGHENING.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD GO ON DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD BE INTERESTED BY A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS,
ASOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM, STARTING FROM THURSDAY FOR
RODRIGUES ISLAND AND FROM FRIDAY FOR THE MAURICE / REUNION AREA.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.