EPAC : Norbert: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It is still T5.5, so they will probably go 110 kt at the advisory.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
800 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
...740 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.3 N...110.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Norbert passes Hernán as the most intense storm this season.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Wonder what recon tomorrow will find.

[RL3AO]

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE NORBERT
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0115E NORBERT
C. 09/1130Z
D. 18.5N 113.0W
E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They will find anything between a category 3 and 5 tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

I wouldn't be surprised if they find a Cat. 4 hurricane.

[Chacor]

Too bad it's not going in today.

[RL3AO]

Hey. It got a 1/100.

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/08/08 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Cyclenall]

Exactly what I knew was going to happen. I just hope I don't hear the "A" word on this storm.

[HurricaneRobert]

A cat 5 would be unusual in a neutral season like this one - especially since cat 5's have been so rare this year.

[CrazyC83]

Extremely deep convection now wrapping completely around the eye.

[HURAKAN]

Norbert, still getting better.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm.

[Dave C]

As that trough digs in next couple days it should provide an outflow channel for a period which could be it's best chance of reaching cat 5. It may hit cooler waters before then so the race will be on.

[CrazyC83]

Cat 5 would be almost unprecedented in a non-El Nino year.

[Iune]

Hurricane Ava was the last cat5 in a non El-Nino year

[CrazyC83]

08/1800 UTC 16.2N 110.9W T6.0/6.0 NORBERT -- East Pacific Ocean

Supports 115 kt. With CIMSS supporting 125 kt, I'd say 120 kt.

[RattleMan]

EP, 15, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1109W, 115, 948, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 125, 125, 110, 1008, 225, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1109W, 115, 948, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1008, 225, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 15, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1109W, 115, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1008, 225, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[HURAKAN]

Major (Hurricane) Norbert!

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082032
TCDEP5
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

NORBERT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS SURROUNDING A RATHER SYMMETRIC 30-35 NM WIDE EYE. A 1709 UTC
AMSU OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT NORBERT MAY BE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...BUT THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY ADDITIONAL
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO CORROBORATE THIS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS T6.0 OR 115 KT...WHICH
IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND INTENSITY CHANGES DURING THIS TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY INNER-CORE STRUCTURE...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME
SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER
NORBERT WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IF NORBERT MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND TRACKS WEST OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST IT WOULD SPEND MORE TIME OVER COOLER WATERS...
THAN A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE TRACK
FORECAST DILEMMA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE
AROUND THE TIME NORBERT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THESE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL
WHICH KEEPS NORBERT RATHER STRONG UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND
MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...290/8 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE SOON...AS NORBERT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THEREAFTER...NORBERT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THIS SCENARIO...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY LARGE SPREAD ON THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...AT 72
HOURS...THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDN...AND UKMET ALL SHOW NORBERT NEAR OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE THE GFDL...HWRF AND NOGAPS
PREDICT THAT NORBERT WILL BE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AT THAT TIME.
SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCE ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HOW STRONG OR
DEEP THE VARIOUS MODELS KEEP NORBERT. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD...THE
NHC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL IT IS MORE
CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY ON THE BASIS OF DATA FROM
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 16.6N 111.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 17.2N 112.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 19.7N 113.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 32.0N 106.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN