EPAC : Odile - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep922008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810041350
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2008, DB, O, 2008100412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922008
EP, 92, 2008100412, , BEST, 0, 100N, 875W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Ed Mahmoud]

About time. I noticed this while thinking about the Caribbean system, and I think this has got a big start on the Caribbean system, and probably keeps it from developing.


For that matter, although a little behind, based on size, this may limit how much 15-E can strengthen.

[HURAKAN]

I like the chances of this one. It already has a great spin, althought most likely in the mid-levels

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like its outflow is already shearing 15-E

[RattleMan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

...

IT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND 20 TO 30 KT OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...APPARENTLY FROM THE CYCLONES' OUTFLOW
PATTERN. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE ALSO APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING
THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET THAT THIS
GFS-FORECAST CYCLONE IS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...STRENGTHENING THE
DEPRESSION TO A HURRICANE IN 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL BEYOND DAY 3.

Perhaps this is it?

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 041737
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIE...LOCATED ABOUT 845 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E...LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS
FORMED IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042347
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARIE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is that time of the year, and the 12Z GFS suggests 92E may impact Texas weather this weekend.


Thread about 1994 Pacific Hurricane Rosa, and the flaming San Jacinto River, and a link to GFS 700 mb theta-e loop showing 92E sending mid-level moisture to Texas

[HURAKAN]

Shear very strong.

[cycloneye]

NHC insists that shear will decrease.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062346
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 6 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NORBERT...LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE...LOCATED ABOUT 930 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF EL SALVADOR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

If it continues to shift eastward, it may move over CA.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N 87.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 072000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 87.6W. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTS 20-25 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC. AT THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM LACKS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO HIGH, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL BUT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THE MODELS INDICATING AN
ERRATIC TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER THIS TIME.
OBVIOUSLY, THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS TCFA IS BEING ISSUED
DUE TO THE STRONG LLCC AND FORECAST IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 082100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 7 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NORBERT...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 06z:

EP, 92, 2008100806, , BEST, 0, 117N, 886W, 30, 1006



Looking better this morning.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NORBERT...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better organized.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NORBERT...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[CrazyC83]

08/1745 UTC 12.0N 90.3W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

TD 16-E at 2 PM PDT.

NHC
invest_RENUMBER_ep922008_ep162008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810081843
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

EP, 16, 2008100818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 905W, 30, 1006, TD,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/