Strong front sliced through the Plains - Oct. 2008

Extremeweatherguy · #1 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Oct 05, 2008 11:49 pm

Carried over from this thread: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=101049&start=40

The 00z GFS depicts yet another chilly and wintery scenario for this upcoming weekend...

Surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

850mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif

Look at how far south the 0˚C 850mb line gets on Sunday!

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 12:18 am

Just for laughs, (because given the time of year I doubt this will verify), here is a look at the 00z GFS snowcover map for the morning of Sunday, October, 12th...

Extremeweatherguy · #3 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:50 am

While this extreme October scenario is fun to look at, it should be noted that for the time being, most southern plains NWS offices are not buying into this type of situation playing out. The Norman, Oklahoma office, for instance, thinks the front will be much slower to arrive and is currently forecasting high temperatures in the upper 70s on Saturday with only a slight chance of storms.

#4 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 9:14 am

If we can just get some early season frost to kill off the ragweed, I'd be happy. Today, the allergies are much better with the rain washing the pollen out of the air. Yay.

SCMedic · #5 Postby **SCMedic** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 11:07 am

That would bring the first snow to us here in Denver... Local mets are mentioning a nice cool down on Friday night/Sat/Sun, but calling for unsettled weather, and a chance of rain/snow over the weekend.. Talking about disagreeing models, and needing to wait till it gets closer...

#6 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 12:04 pm

Yeah....snow before Columbus Day? Good grief. :roll:

Then again anything can happen in this part of the world....but generally I expect Nebraska to get their first snow of the season before we do. :double:

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:40 pm

SCMedic · #8 Postby **SCMedic** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:37 pm

We have a mention of cold and the possibility of heavy snow now in our Denver forecast discussion. Waiting to see how the models pan out.

Extremeweatherguy · #9 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 11:49 pm

The 00z GFS has moved in line with the ECMWF and NWS and slows down the arrival of the front to early next week. The system still looks strong, and will likely feature the coldest air so far this season, but it is not nearly as impressive as what was seen in previous runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:56 am

Not so surprising given the GFS' propensity for overforecasting cold airmasses early in the fall. Of course, the opposite seems to happen in late fall into winter so we need to be mindful of that.

Considering the many forecasts I have read online about winter starting hard and early in the Plains this year and what we are seeing so far, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a major winter storm hit us around Thanksgiving this year. When I say "us", I mean everyone from Oklahoma down through Texas. Maybe the Cowboys will have a repeat of the Leon Lett Fumble/Ice Bowl game from 1993!

That was an interesting year because parts of southwest Texas (Del Rio) saw a snowfall around Halloween that year. Also in 1996, 2000, and 2001 we saw snow/ice events here in south central Texas. Also, in 1937, Austin had its heaviest snowfall on record with 9.7 inches on Nov. 22-23.

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:49 am

Johnny · #12 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 2:35 pm

I'm still stuck in shorts here in Southeast, Texas. We have dipped down into the 50's a few times but not enough for me to put on a long sleeve shirt since it warms into the 80's/close to 90 very quickly. I hope we get a decent one soon! I remember back in Mid October of 2000. We had a very nice cold front come through which kept us in the mid 40's for two days for high's with overcast skies. That's what I want to see very soon!

Extremeweatherguy · #13 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:32 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE MILD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FAST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW IT TO MOVE
TOO FAR INTO OKLAHOMA. OTHER THAN THIS FEATURE...ONLY A DEVELOPING
LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OUR WEATHER MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY
AS IT BRINGS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY, A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GREAT BASIN WITH ATTENDANT
STRONG FLOW TO ITS SOUTH. COINCIDENTALLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME FROM NORBERT MAY REACH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES, WITH SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES A
NEAR CERTAINTY, WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATER SATURDAY. MODERATE RAINFALL WAS ADDED TO SOME OF THE GRIDS
IN ORDER TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POTENTIAL OF A SUB-TROPICAL MID-LEVEL
AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH THESE FEATURES. BY MONDAY OR POSSIBLY
TUESDAY, AS THIS LARGE UPPER STORM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS A COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A CAUSE OF A SECOND PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN WHAT SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION MAY STILL INFLUENCE OKLAHOMA BY THIS TIME.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW THAT MAY BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE
LARGER STORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW TUESDAY TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BEING A COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY. GRID
FORECAST INDICATE LOW POPS INTO TUESDAY FOR THIS. POPS ARE
CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESSER
POPS FOR THE MENTIONED EVENTS OF SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.

Ed Mahmoud · #14 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:58 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is a look at the 6z GFS, which continues to show a wintery scenario next weekend with a cold, windy rain in many parts of the southern plains and the possibility of some snow, sleet and/or freezing rain in the northern parts (including the TX and OK panhandles)...

Surface:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

850mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif

6z GFS snowcover graphic for this Sunday:

While this extreme October scenario is fun to look at, it should be noted that for the time being, most southern plains NWS offices are not buying into this type of situation playing out. The Norman, Oklahoma office, for instance, thinks the front will be much slower to arrive and is currently forecasting high temperatures in the upper 70s on Saturday with only a slight chance of storms.

Almost that time of year when a young boys fancy turns from tropical cyclones to missed work and playing with the kids in a SE Texas freezing rain/sleet party!

#15 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:22 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Almost that time of year when a young boys fancy turns from tropical cyclones to missed work and playing with the kids in a SE Texas freezing rain/sleet party!

And jasons saying, "nooooo, not my banana trees!!!!"

Ed Mahmoud · #16 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:33 pm

gboudx wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Almost that time of year when a young boys fancy turns from tropical cyclones to missed work and playing with the kids in a SE Texas freezing rain/sleet party!

And jasons saying, "nooooo, not my banana trees!!!!"

The banana trees look like they die after a frost, but the roots survive and new lush green foliage comes back each Spring.

I noticed the banana trees around Popo's now destroyed trailer in Jamaica Beach actually had fruit on them back on July 4th, indicative of a lack of a hard freeze the previous winter.

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:17 am

10-9-08 00z GFS at 120 hrs...

Front pushing through Oklahoma and into northern Texas on Monday evening. Lots of rainfall is shown along the leading edge of the boundary with rapidly falling temperatures behind it. The 20C and 10C surface lines are fairly close, indicating a pretty sharp drop between the near 70F readings ahead of the front and the near 50F readings behind the front.

shibumi · #18 Postby **shibumi** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:39 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
gboudx wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Almost that time of year when a young boys fancy turns from tropical cyclones to missed work and playing with the kids in a SE Texas freezing rain/sleet party!

And jasons saying, "nooooo, not my banana trees!!!!"

The banana trees look like they die after a frost, but the roots survive and new lush green foliage comes back each Spring.

True, but the plant starts all over - you don't get bananas that way! That is why he probably gets upset....yu need roughly 15 months of active growing to produce bananas then 2-3 months for them to size up-ripen.

Extremeweatherguy · #19 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:34 pm

Assorted forecasts for early next week behind the front...

Lincoln, NE

Columbus Day: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Wichita, KS

Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Oklahoma City, OK

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.

Dallas, TX

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

bob rulz · #20 Postby **bob rulz** » Sat Oct 11, 2008 5:42 pm

This storm is going to bring 2-6 inches of snow here, but lake-effect could enhance some totals. This is going to be the fourth-earliest measurable snowstorm on record! Temperatures will plunge into the upper 20s Sunday night! :cold:

There's not enough people from the West on this website.

Strong front sliced through the Plains - Oct. 2008

Strong front sliced through the Plains - Oct. 2008

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