EPAC : Odile - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Wow!

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

[CrazyC83]

Odile could be quick to come, and we might see Hurricane Odile pretty fast too...

Is El Nino starting to build in?

[Cyclenall]

I just hope the forecasting challenge topic can be made in time .

[Cainer]

16L.SIXTEEN on NRL. Finally!

[RL3AO]

Odile could be quick to come, and we might see Hurricane Odile pretty fast too...

Is El Nino starting to build in?

No. The waters are plenty warm, but storms have taken so long to develop, that they run into cooler waters right after forming. These two systems formed further south and therefore will have days over warm water.

[HURAKAN]

Still very broad system. RL3AO, at the moment I don't see rapid intensification as the convection has weakened and the circulation is huge.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 082036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PART OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS HAS FINALLY
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO
BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BANDING FEATURES
ARE BECOMING EVIDENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN LINE
WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE...OF
COURSE...QUITE WARM. HOWEVER THE LACK OF INNER CORE ORGANIZATION
AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT A
LOT OF STRENGTHENING SUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SLOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATTER MODEL
SUGGESTS INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD HALT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS AFTER
DAY 3.

ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THE SYSTEM WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD...
IT HAS SINCE LOOPED BACK TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. CURRENT
MOTION IS AROUND 280/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO TROUGHS OR OTHER OBVIOUS STEERING
MECHANISMS TO BRING THE CENTER ASHORE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK
PARALLELING...BUT NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 12.1N 90.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 12.5N 92.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 13.1N 93.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 13.7N 95.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 14.3N 96.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 15.5N 98.8W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 16.5N 101.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Very close to the Mexican coast.

[Cyclenall]

The NHC makes no mention of the RI Index and I think it could become a bit stronger then forecast. TS in 3.5 hours IMO.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC makes no mention of the RI Index and I think it could become a bit stronger then forecast. TS in 3.5 hours IMO.

Just by looking at it, I think it will take a little longer!

[Cyclenall]

Despite the appearance, I'm holding on to that prediction! It was the way it was organizing hours ago that led my to believe it would have more convection now then that.

[Chacor]

I just hope the forecasting challenge topic can be made in time .

Jesus Christ, people need to sleep too you know.

[Category 5]

I just hope the forecasting challenge topic can be made in time .

Dude, Singapore is a 12 hour time difference, but I'm sure Chacor sets his alarm at 3am to satisfy inpatient contest entrees.

[cycloneye]

No surprise from Best Track at 00:00 UTC:

EP, 16, 2008100900, , BEST, 0, 121N, 914W, 30, 1006, TD,

[Cyclenall]

I just hope the forecasting challenge topic can be made in time .

Jesus Christ, people need to sleep too you know.

Just chill, no need to get upset.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090232
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
800 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING...WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS A
30 KT SHIP REPORT NEAR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
AGREEING THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON
THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MOVE THE
SYSTEM VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST TRACKS PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE HWRF SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN THE
GFDL. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY HWRF AND THE
MORE NORTHERLY GFS/ECMWF. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 53 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 25 KT OF
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HR. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE HWRF IS THE ONLY MODEL CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
HURRICANE....AND THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODELS. THE FORECAST
BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP 45
KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UKMET SHOWS WEAKER
EASTERLIES...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT SHOW
AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE GFDL...WHICH CALLS FOR DISSIPATION.

THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 12.2N 91.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 12.7N 93.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 13.3N 94.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 13.9N 95.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 14.4N 97.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 15.5N 100.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[jinftl]

Probably the recent upswing in EPac activity can be linked to MJO phase going positive as well...discussed in MJO thread in this section.

Odile could be quick to come, and we might see Hurricane Odile pretty fast too...

Is El Nino starting to build in?

No. The waters are plenty warm, but storms have taken so long to develop, that they run into cooler waters right after forming. These two systems formed further south and therefore will have days over warm water.

[HurricaneRobert]

It has very intense convection. It will probably be Odile soon.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008
200 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

...FIFTEENTH TROPICAL STORMS FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 315
MILES...505 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO.

ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE
OF...THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...12.7 N...93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better. Not surprised after the DMAX.